So you'll see big increases that probably don't reflect absolutely new cases.

Note that NY right now is #6 in the world, ahead of France. It accounts for almost half of US confirmed cases and is pushing 1/3 of the US' known deaths. Of course, that ranking could change when France's numbers get updated.

First, saying there wouldn't be a lock-down when it was obvious it was necessary to prevent a ballooning of COVID cases was a mistake nobody wants to point out. Then a lock-down for the entire state, including areas where social distancing's produced the desired effect and the case increase/death count is low and the lock-down is not clearly necessary.

The US, by the way, should be #3, all things being equal. We're #3 in population, and given that we're not likely going to set up mandatory check points at every apt. building or subdivision it'll be a bit messier than in other places. Then again the confirmed case count is a fishy number anyway. When you run out of tests and there's little point in the numbers because treatment doesn't depend on underlying diagnosis, meh.

What I find a bit scary is that the positive/total ratio for NY is so much higher than most other places. Most other places you get less than 13% of the sick and tested having COVID. NY, it's double that, so NYS really is the center of a serious hot spot. It should be quarantined, to be honest.

Otherwise watch the death count and the shape the curve makes. And it's best if you can do that with the country's numbers segmented, so that a big increase in one place (or two) doesn't make it look like Wichita, KS, is flooded with serious COVID-19 cases. Often an average hides what's going on.