And we're STILL hardly testing anybody, relatively speaking.

There are a great many people with it (symptomatic and not) that we're only learning about now.

I think that for every one person who tests positive today there are at least ten or twenty others who got it at around the same time who just don't know it yet.

We have not been testing up to now. And for symptomatic people who can breath on their own, we're still not testing. Because we don't have enough tests. We're flying blind.

Trump did this to us by refusing the readily available WHO tests on January 11.

If he had accepted them, we'd have enough tests and we would not be destroying our economy right now with indescriminate lockdowns.

This is the beginning

Uncle Sick Bucks is in charge and responsible for worsening this disaster?

Reporting them was what he has been trying to prevent?

Started with the cruise ship?

I is just a hoax to hurt Trump's reelection campaign.

These cases will probably continue exponentially until testing stops as being superfluous.

like how at every doubling, the new amount is greater than the sum of all previous doublings
ex.
1 0
2 1
4 3
8 7
16 15
32 31

Death rates are what I have my eye on, though. You can fudge case numbers with testing decisions. Much harder to fudge mortality data.

Some hospitals are already that overwhelmed and underequipped.

I hope they're at least saving samples from those patients to confirm cause of death later.

Just how long does it take to recover?

I guess it depends on how sick you are.

based purely on the recovery numbers v. deaths.

The death rate is still far lower than 50% unless you stack risk factors together--over 80, diabetes and pre-existing long condition.

COVID incidence is undercounted, number of recoveries likely even more undercounted.

Things can go south, leading to death very quickly, but recovery takes time. I've got a number of friends who have come down with it, and it had laid them out for two weeks, and they're still not fully recovered. People have to be careful when drawing conclusions from the numbers that we're measuring.

If you test 10k and put 500 in the hospital, how do you know when the other 9500 are recovered? Is there a box to check or do they just time out?

The real number is probably in the millions by now.

The current fatality assumptions are roughly 1%. We are at roughly that number now with ~400 deaths and roughly ~40000 cases.

But that doesn't factor in time. It takes about 25 days on average for the disease to run its course and kill you. That means that the current number of 400 deaths represents about 40000 cases IN LATE FEBRUARY.

Considering that this thing doubles about every 3-5 days, that puts it into the millions. You can also do the math on that to see how busy the hospitals are going to be in the next few weeks.

This video that was posted a few days ago is dense but very informative with some pretty straight forward math. https://www.democraticunderground.com/1017572066

If the number of deaths does not double in 3 days then that means we are getting it better controlled. The fucker doubles every three days!

Can't have the #s tripling if the test kit supply's a constant.

Watch for funny numbers. One site reports Vatican City's case load is 1248/1 M. First, Vatican City's population is far below 1 million. Two, it has one reported case.

I watch two numbers.

Deaths. And since I found the appropriate site, % positive/total tests. That latter percentage will sky high because the most at-risk or suspect group is being tested first. At the same time, if you look at how skewed NY's percentage is you realize it's because they're reserving the kits for even higher-risk groups.

The math still works. Just move the decimal place to the left once, for both variables. Then the number is 124.8 deaths per 100,000. Or 12.48 of 10,000.

They’re all the same number, but now the latter two reflects the Vatican’s population. Whoever did the numbers extrapolated the death rate to a whole number. Some people relate to 1248 better than 124.8 or 12.48 because how do you have .8 or .48 with a person?

It’s a semantics position, not mathematical.

hopefully we've been able to flatten it some. We will see how much soon enough. It should make a difference in how states whose numbers are lower (but increasing) respond.

If only there was swift and FAIR distribution of necessary equipment for medical people and hospitals.

50,000 people have it, 10 get tested, 10 positive, confirmed. 50,000 still have it.
50,000 period have it, 1000 get tested, 1000 positive, confirmed. 50,000 still have it.

It is widespread, continues to spread. But we knew the numbers confirmed would soar one testing started.

I suspect you'll see a 33% daily increase for awhile.

Probably be the pattern until we reach the top of the curve.

I've refreshed numerous times.

But that's what exponential growth does.

So looking from yesterday @ 9 PM, there's a 33% increase (already today) over cases yesterday. On the positive side, yesterday's cases are likely underreported (the first drop in new cases), so some of those were likely reported today.

Overall, best to look at trend lines, not absolutes.

I feel numb.

It too was ignored.

Dr. John Campbell in England said this was going to happen.

Laurie Garrett in New York said that the USA was on track to follow Italy and said there was a small window left of 24-72 hrs. before it would HIT HARD.

I listened!

I went out and shopped the next day and have not been out of the house since that day.

Too bad that no one listened to these experts!



TOO BAD!

Early on, I started to presume the trackers I was monitoring were not going to be at all accurate for the US without massive testing going on, so I just thought about powers of ten.

The ICUs are going to be full.

Their data actually seems great, but I don't know how much I can trust about their own self-reporting.

https://www.worldometers.info/about/
"Worldometer is owned by Dadax, an independent company. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation."

https://dadax.cn/en/about-dadax/
"Type Privately Held
Founded 2016
Headquarters Pudong, Shanghai
Company size < 10 employees ( in 2019 )"