General Discussion

grantcart

(53,061 posts) Mon Mar 23, 2020, 02:22 AM Mar 2020

First glimmer of good news from Italy: New Cases down 15% and 18% decline in deaths

It is only one day but it is significant. If Italy can hold for 2-3 days it will be a hopeful sign.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

5560 new cases and 651 new deaths in Italy: 15% decline in new cases and 18% decline in new deaths with respect to yesterday [source] [source]

Among the deaths: a 34-year-old man in Rome with no existing health conditions (according to reports) who died after being hospitalized for 4 days in sub‐intensive care. He had developed a fever after returning from Barcelona, Spain [source]
"We expect to see the first effects of the stringent lockdown measures adopted on March 11 after 2-3 weeks, so the coming week will be absolutely crucial in this sense: we expect to finally see a sign of trend reversal," said Franco Locatelli, President of the Health Council [source]

The bad news is that the US is about 3 weeks behind Italy.

The US infection rate and the death rate have doubled in one day. It is likely we will hit 1000 deaths a day within a week.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Its going to get much much worse but the most distressing trend for me was Italy that showed no decrease even after a severe nation wide lock down, it just kept going up.

Lets keep our eyes on Italy and hope that we see a sharp decline there for their sake and ours.

7 replies

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First glimmer of good news from Italy: New Cases down 15% and 18% decline in deaths (Original Post) grantcart Mar 2020 OP

Yep, our tsunami is coming in 3 weeks dalton99a Mar 2020 #1

Yes and both the level of increase and the morbidity rate will be much higher here. grantcart Mar 2020 #3

This message was self-deleted by its author grantcart Mar 2020 #2

Headlines: Italian nurses, "we're not even counting the dead anymore" Baclava Mar 2020 #4

Sounds cheery, but they have also stopped treating those over sixty... Cetacea Mar 2020 #5

Worldwide COVID-19 Death Toll Tops 10,000 as Italian Nurses "Stop Counting the Dead" KewlKat Mar 2020 #6

They've had day-over-day drops before Recursion Mar 2020 #7

dalton99a

(81,527 posts)

1. Yep, our tsunami is coming in 3 weeks

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 02:25 AM

Mar 2020

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

3. Yes and both the level of increase and the morbidity rate will be much higher here.

Reply to dalton99a (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 02:39 AM

Mar 2020

But if Italy can sustain a few days of decrease it will mean that we may see a decline in 6-8 weeks.

Watching Italy continue to go up was the most distressing part for me.

Response to grantcart (Original post)

grantcart This message was self-deleted by its author.

Baclava

(12,047 posts)

4. Headlines: Italian nurses, "we're not even counting the dead anymore"

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:40 AM

Mar 2020

Cetacea

(7,367 posts)

5. Sounds cheery, but they have also stopped treating those over sixty...

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 06:22 AM

Mar 2020

They've also just accepted aid from Russia.

KewlKat

(5,624 posts)

6. Worldwide COVID-19 Death Toll Tops 10,000 as Italian Nurses "Stop Counting the Dead"

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 06:33 AM

Mar 2020

Source

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/20/headlines/worldwide_covid_19_death_toll_tops_10_000_as_italian_nurses_stop_counting_the_dead

The worldwide death toll from the coronavirus pandemic has topped 10,000, with nearly a quarter of a million confirmed cases of COVID-19. Italy’s death toll has now surpassed China’s, where the outbreak was first reported, with over 3,400 deaths and more than 41,000 confirmed cases. In Milan, nurses report they’ve stopped counting the dead as wave after wave of COVID-19 patients with respiratory ailments overwhelm intensive care units.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)

7. They've had day-over-day drops before

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 06:33 AM

Mar 2020

March 13 - March 14 saw a huge drop in new deaths too. You need several days of sustained lower new deaths before you can start getting hopeful.

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