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General Discussion

LAS14

(13,783 posts) Tue Mar 31, 2020, 12:57 PM Mar 2020

0

Is there a rule of thumb for extrapolating existing from confirmed cases?

tia
las

7 replies

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Is there a rule of thumb for extrapolating existing from confirmed cases? (Original Post) LAS14 Mar 2020 OP

I doubt it without adequate testing and consistent test criteria Raven123 Mar 2020 #1

By the numbers they are the same. Anything else defacto7 Mar 2020 #2

That's what "extrapolation" is. But it's informed speculation. nt LAS14 Mar 2020 #4

I suppose your answer would depend on who is speculating then. defacto7 Mar 2020 #6

Yeah, I guess. I just wondered if experts had discussed this publicly. nt LAS14 Mar 2020 #7

I tend to look at data on deaths for trends caraher Mar 2020 #3

Good point. I've noticed that Massachusetts death rates are low... LAS14 Mar 2020 #5

Raven123

(4,844 posts)

1. I doubt it without adequate testing and consistent test criteria

Reply to LAS14 (Original post)

Tue Mar 31, 2020, 01:09 PM

Mar 2020

I assume you mean true cases.

defacto7

(13,485 posts)

2. By the numbers they are the same. Anything else

Reply to LAS14 (Original post)

Tue Mar 31, 2020, 01:22 PM

Mar 2020

is speculation.

LAS14

(13,783 posts)

4. That's what "extrapolation" is. But it's informed speculation. nt

Reply to defacto7 (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 31, 2020, 01:28 PM

Mar 2020

defacto7

(13,485 posts)

6. I suppose your answer would depend on who is speculating then.

Reply to LAS14 (Reply #4)

Tue Mar 31, 2020, 01:52 PM

Mar 2020

There's plenty of info by respected epidemiologists out there. They call it estimating. If you want their methods usually they provide that as well. In reading their methods of estimation you might extrapolate their intent, point of view, ability, education, politics or maybe honesty. In the end it's speculation informed or not and you get to choose. To generalize, infer, interpolate, to make a generalization you can apply to other purposes is to extrapolate. Is that what you meant?

LAS14

(13,783 posts)

7. Yeah, I guess. I just wondered if experts had discussed this publicly. nt

Reply to defacto7 (Reply #6)

Tue Mar 31, 2020, 04:34 PM

Mar 2020

caraher

(6,278 posts)

3. I tend to look at data on deaths for trends

Reply to LAS14 (Original post)

Tue Mar 31, 2020, 01:24 PM

Mar 2020

While some COVID-19 deaths may be missed because of lack of testing I'd expect the numbers to be more accurate than case counts.

LAS14

(13,783 posts)

5. Good point. I've noticed that Massachusetts death rates are low...

Reply to caraher (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 31, 2020, 01:29 PM

Mar 2020

... compared ot its "confirmed cases." I hope that means that the testing is relatively good.

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