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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirus
Science
03.30.2020 07:00 AM
Epidemiologists are using complex models to help policymakers get ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the leap from equations to decisions is a long one.
In the past few days, New York Citys hospitals have become unrecognizable. Thousands of patients sick with the novel coronavirus have swarmed into emergency rooms and intensive care units. From 3,000 miles away in Seattle, as Lisa Brandenburg watched the scenes unfoldisolation wards cobbled together in lobbies, nurses caring for Covid-19 patients in makeshift trash bag gowns, refrigerated mobile morgues idling on the street outsideshe couldnt stop herself from thinking: That could be us.
It could be, if the models are wrong.
Until this past week, Seattle had been the center of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. Its where US health officials confirmed the nations first case, back in January, and its first death a month later. As president of the University of Washington Medicine Hospitals and Clinics, Brandenburg oversees the regions largest health network, which treats more than half a million patients every year. In early March, she and many public health authorities were shaken by an urgent report produced by computational biologists at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. Their analysis of genetic data indicated the virus had been silently circulating in the Seattle area for weeks and had already infected at least 500 to 600 people. The city was a ticking time bomb.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus/?utm_source=pocket-newtab
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Speaking at a White House briefing on Thursday, Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the Coronavirus Task Force, admonished the press against taking those models too seriously, even as New York governor Andrew Cuomo begged for federal help with acquiring ventilators and protective equipment for health care workers. The predictions of the models dont match the reality on the ground, Birx said.
This is very good article, and if memory serves me correctly he was on Maddow show last night..............
Pillow talk
(265 posts)turbinetree
(24,703 posts)When I read this article and saw what she had done.................you would think that she knows better.........
GeorgiaPeanut
(360 posts)GeorgiaPeanut
(360 posts)Thanks for posting !
turbinetree
(24,703 posts)Midnightwalk
(3,131 posts)turbinetree
(24,703 posts)DeminPennswoods
(15,286 posts)Thanks for posting.
FWIW, the computer whizes at Carnegie-Mellon have two models, one based on algorithms and machine-learning AI and the other based on a "wisdom of crowds" model. Maybe surprisingly, the CMU forecasters think the latter might be more on the mark, at least initially, given the paucity of hard data.