General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWith so little testing and so many asymptomatic carriers, what are the best estimates for real cases
of covid 19? We are currently at about 250,000 KNOWN cases in the US with the bulk of those in NY. So are the actual numbers 3X as much 10Xs as much? I can't find anything giving a good assessment of this. Are there any reliable models that are trying to pinpoint the realistic numbers?
relayerbob
(6,555 posts)But based on the numbers of people I know who have it, some tested, a large majority not, I guess at least 8-10x official numbers. My own stats would suggest .5-1% of the entire population of the US have it, or have already had it. I actually suspect that to be a lower bound.
Quixote1818
(28,976 posts)I have seen a couple of people interviewed and only one person got tested but everyone else in the house was sick. So like 3 to 5 other people in the house with just one tested. So I am guessing the actual numbers with the 30 to 50% who never show symptoms and perhaps only about 30% getting tested who do show symptoms, that the number could be 5 to 10 times the known cases. That might be close to 2 million but who knows. Your 1% of the US is probably about right.
lapfog_1
(29,226 posts)Quixote1818
(28,976 posts)Especially with how many media and politicians are getting it.
relayerbob
(6,555 posts)is if the numbers are that much larger, than the death rate (not the overall toll, unfortunately) could be much lower, which would be a very good thing