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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsGupta on CNN now using IMHE model projections...
which were just LOWERED from 68,000 to 60,000 total U.S. deaths by Aug. 4. Yet, for several days now, the actual death count in most states (especially severely affected states) has been far higher than the IMHE projections for each particular day. Something doesn't add up. I saw an earlier post about several experts saying that IMHE methodology is flawed.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,836 posts)to what's really going on.
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)For yesterday.
Igel
(35,356 posts)Not when they happened.
The jump may be that big, smaller, or bigger. Depending on whether they reported all of yesteday's deaths yesterday (unlikely), failed to report some yesterday (likely), and how many of today's deaths they won't report until tomorrow.
Botany
(70,581 posts)And by what reasoning do they get only 60,000 by August 1st? Especially if they
open things back up.
How many total deaths do we have now in America now? 36,000?
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142472929
uponit7771
(90,364 posts).. based their models off of?
Yeah, something must be really wrong
Response to blitzen (Original post)
DrToast This message was self-deleted by its author.
coti
(4,612 posts)this thing goes away completely within three weeks, after dropping down to less than 1K dead per day for an extended time, I don't think we're staying under 60K dead.
Celerity
(43,499 posts)The US will pass 60,000 deaths in around 10 days. The models are fucked IMHO.
BigmanPigman
(51,627 posts)Some cities and states are complying but it is very inconsistent. China just did the same thing, counted more probable deaths. All the death numbers will increase, probably 33%.
kurtcagle
(1,604 posts)A model is a projection, attempting to determine the future by trying to take a complex set of variables, quantifying them, then fitting them into a dynamic, constantly shifting pattern. We know that there are at least three strains of coronavirus, an early strain that came out of China likely by mid-Fall and settled into the West Coast, a second strain that primarily impacted China itself, and the third (likely a variant of the second) which spread first to Iran than to Europe and eventually the East Coast of the US and Canada, which seems to be the most lethal. This also makes the IMHE model questionable, as these likely have very different profiles (and consequently different variables and constants). Finally, WHO guidelines have now started incorporating probable coronavirus cases rather than confirmed ones, which are not accounted for in the IMHE models. I still think we'll see total deaths in the US closer to 100K rather than 60K, as this settles into the Southeast and Midwest.
blitzen
(4,572 posts)death numbers are reported by the states. The IMHE graph lets you pick a state, pick a specific date, and see their projection for that date. I've been doing that for the past few days, and the projections are generally way too low.
Example: Michigan, for April 16 IMHE Projection: 75 // Actual reported deaths: 172
This has been going on for days and is similar for the worst hit states. So, since reality is showing their projections to have been wrong, why do they now lower their overall U.S. death projection? There may be a good explanation, but I don't get it.
Igel
(35,356 posts)Not by much, to be sure.
They lowered them and piddled with the projections a bit.
Having New York change the *basis* of their reports throws any model into chaos. The before and after numbers can't be merged without normalizing one of the two sets, and NY isn't giving the necessary information to do that for current numbers. And as far as I know, it also didn't say how to apportion that large lump sum historically, so you can't adjust the past numbers.
They did this and dragged the CDC along just as some states were peaking. That's the real test of a model--does it predict inflection points. Couldn't have timed screwing over any basis for predictions better if they'd planned it. (But being politicians, it's unlikely the decision makes planned it.)
The last update I can see online is 4/12. They were supposed to recalculate on 4/15, but I haven't seen those numbers.
VMA131Marine
(4,149 posts)due to the lack of testing, and particularly post-mortem testing, the US death toll is probably already beyond 60,000. It will take detailed analysis of so-called excess deaths to figure out the true death toll of this virus.
patphil
(6,207 posts)TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)courses in college, but I do seem to remember that you choose a model, largely by guesswork, and start poking numbers into it. After a while, you see how well it matches reality and you make changes.
Statistical modelling is a black art and eventually works, but should not be taken seriously at first, if at all. FWIW, my education in economics started with the department head in the lecture hall telling us that we economics majors should try to pass the tests, but not believe anything we were taught. Modeling and forecasting, he told us, were complete bullshit.
Shermann
(7,428 posts)Fauci just waved his arms and said he thought things would be OK
No models, no graphs, no foundation for this claim.
Did I miss it?
msongs
(67,441 posts)SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)It shows that August 4 the total will be 60,308 dead.
But it is bizarre because it shows the country reaching 59,184 by May 10th and then for the rest of May, all of June, and all of July only have 800 more people die?
In what universe are they talking about?
blitzen
(4,572 posts)Roland99
(53,342 posts)Many states had peaks moved way up.
Squinch
(51,004 posts)There's a reason Donnie Bodybags chose this model.
Down the road, we will find that a right wing group is a big donor to this model.
bullwinkle428
(20,630 posts)the predictive or analytical power or lack thereof, using this particular model, but I don't think Gates has any of kind of agenda to make Needy Amin look any better.
The investment will allow IHME to build on its work providing independent health evidence to improve population health. The award complements other investments from the Gates Foundation to further the work of the University of Washingtons Population Health Initiative, which was launched in May 2016 and is establishing a university-wide, 25-year vision to advance the health and well-being of people around the world.
IHME provides critical data about global health trends that can empower policymakers worldwide to identify better solutions in the fight against disease, said Bill Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/bill-melinda-gates-foundation-boosts-vital-work-university-washingtons-institute
Squinch
(51,004 posts)And there is a reason why Donnie Bodybags chose it early and quotes it often.
BGBD
(3,282 posts)was always a best case scenerio model. I dont know why any responsible official would ever use it to make decisions. Use the median projection or even the worse case to be prepared.
Trump getting on TV and telling people the models were showing 60K and that it was going to be much lower was irresponsible to the level of criminality. That gave a false sense of confidence and likely caused behavior that led to more infections and deaths.
We will be close to 60k by the end of April, if not before.
ThoughtCriminal
(14,049 posts)And the spike will be obvious and that these counts and estimates were far below actual deaths caused directly and indirectly by the pandemic.
In some ways, it is similar to the number of fatalities during the Iraq war. Counts put the number of deaths at around 109,000, but population-based studies suggested the actual fatalities were actually around 650,000 or more.
ThoughtCriminal
(14,049 posts)Without widespread testing, guess what the projections are.
standingtall
(2,787 posts)if not sooner.