General Discussion

berni_mccoy

(23,018 posts) Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:01 PM Apr 2020

On The Southern States Re-Opening Plan

I do not take the hopeful stance that many here do that this will backlash on them. Quite the contrary, these few states that start aggressive re-opening plans will create a domino effect that will pressure other states to begin re-opening or face economic abandonment.

Here is what I mean.

Business owners DO want to open. I know many of them. They are all suffering and if we had strong leadership in this country, they would all abide. But the protesters are indeed resonating with them. Many who have mom-and-pop shops are permanently losing business to the big-box stores like Home Depot and Walmart which somehow are allowed to remain open. This really is small business armageddon.

The fact that the PPP has been used to pay chain realtors and restaurants hurts them even more, many of whom were unable to get the PPP loans given how fast the funding ran out.

Once these southern states re-open, states around them will start seeing their residents go across the boarder to these states to go to restaurants, get hair-cuts, etc. This will create a scenario where those state's businesses are saying "Why are we shutdown when these people are crossing the boarder are spreading the virus anyway and we are left holding the bag economically?" There will be no inter-state blockades or shutdowns and anyone who believes this would be a solution is naive. This will force states around them to re-open. Rinse and repeat and it won't be long before the entire country is forced to re-open.

That's where the reality is heading folks. The only backlash will come when the death toll is in the millions. But you won't see COVID-19 attributed to those deaths because testing will stop and we will not be able to confirm the deaths are cover related. Just look at Florida who refuses to attribute pneumonia deaths to COVID simply because they aren't testing people who died from it.

The economy will open. Millions will die. Trump will claim victory while the damage is done.

I'm sorry but I've become increasingly pessimistic. If anyone can poke a hole in the above reasoning, I'll gladly accept it. I am very saddened for what is coming.

9 replies

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On The Southern States Re-Opening Plan (Original Post) berni_mccoy Apr 2020 OP

Yes. It will go just like that till the deaths spike. Then it won't. Squinch Apr 2020 #1

+1 underpants Apr 2020 #2

without testing, it's a foregone conclusion stillcool Apr 2020 #3

Maybe individual states will go overseas to buy their NoMoreRepugs Apr 2020 #4

Maryland did just that..500,000 test kits from So Korea...tRump said states were on their own mitch96 Apr 2020 #7

Basically agree. Although, Deaths will be hard to hide if they increase dramatically, adequate Hoyt Apr 2020 #5

Good post, very difficult to find fault with it. Mike 03 Apr 2020 #6

A-hole governor of SC was quite explicit that they were trying to "get the jump" on other states. nt Cognitive_Resonance Apr 2020 #8

The only thing I would suggest is that Proud Liberal Dem Apr 2020 #9

Squinch

(51,004 posts)

1. Yes. It will go just like that till the deaths spike. Then it won't.

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:03 PM

Apr 2020

underpants

(182,877 posts)

2. +1

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:05 PM

Apr 2020

Great post.

stillcool

(32,626 posts)

3. without testing, it's a foregone conclusion

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:07 PM

Apr 2020

there is no virus. Poof...it's gone. Bodies don't count the way dollars do.

NoMoreRepugs

(9,456 posts)

4. Maybe individual states will go overseas to buy their

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:16 PM

Apr 2020

own test kits?

mitch96

(13,924 posts)

7. Maryland did just that..500,000 test kits from So Korea...tRump said states were on their own

Reply to NoMoreRepugs (Reply #4)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:35 PM

Apr 2020

and And AND THEN when he found out what Maryland did the shit stain critized them for dong
WHAT HE SAID TO DO.... What an ass...
m

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)

5. Basically agree. Although, Deaths will be hard to hide if they increase dramatically, adequate

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:18 PM

Apr 2020

testing or not. And, yes, I realize infections come weeks before deaths.

If things heat up, they'll shut down reasonably quickly, as they should, with blood on their hands. If infections/deaths don't start anew, they'll look smart. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll look particularly good in that case.

Personally, I'd prefer to wait awhile, but lots of people are still working everyday.

Mike 03

(16,616 posts)

6. Good post, very difficult to find fault with it.

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:25 PM

Apr 2020

But this one part:

The economy will open.

There are a ton of unknowables buried in that simple sentence. Our economy will try to open, but what about all the economies we depend upon and do business with? What about oil demand, shipping routes and supply lines? Will they just go back to normal because Trump says they should?

Is there actually 'pent up demand' or is that a Mnuchin fantasy that will be outweighed by individual fear of contracting the virus?

It's early in this story, but I still know an awful lot of people who have no intention of resuming normal activities. Stores may open, restaurants may open, the economy may open, but then what? What about international trade, where many countries won't "open." Because there's so much more to the economy than stores and restaurants.

An economist yesterday on Chris Hayes said the negative price of oil was a "canary in the coal mine" that regardless of the intent of states and nations, the economy was in no position to recover. Every time economies would mount a recovery, it would be depressed by setbacks. So it's hard to tell what will actually happen, even though your scenario seems credible.

Cognitive_Resonance

(1,546 posts)

8. A-hole governor of SC was quite explicit that they were trying to "get the jump" on other states. nt

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 01:38 PM

Apr 2020

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,437 posts)

9. The only thing I would suggest is that

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 03:22 PM

Apr 2020

Doctors and nurses and hospitals are more familiar with COVID-19 than anybody by now. The Rebel States won't be able to cover up scores of people "mysteriously" dying that easy at this point, testing or no testing. I just hope that everybody is keeping receipts for when this all over

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