If he's just turning things around by late October that's just too late. He basically has to have the economy make a clear turn-around by I'd say late August. If it's not clear that we are back and growing strong by then, the public mood will be that things under him got worse with the economy.

So I'd say he has about four months. Which is why he's fighting so hard for May 1st to open things up. He knows it's going to take 2-3 months best case scenario for the economy to start looking like it did before. (I don't think that's going to happen, I am just talking best case scenario).

If things don't start opening up until June, then there's no way things start to really take a positive turn until September at the earliest. People are not going to go out full bore for a month or two after things start to open up, so the economy will be less than it was for at least that long.

I also don't think everyone is getting their job back right away, which means a lot of missed payments, and a lot of people falling into poverty or debt. Which means less spending, which means lower GDP.

Votes will be cast based on the 3rd Q data.

Because what I'm most afraid of is that he's just going to say, "Hey, it's not MY fault that virus came along and tanked the economy," and all his voters will faithfully say, "You're right! We still love you!" So he doesn't even NEED to rescue the economy; he just needs to avoid being blamed for it.

So what I've been doing a lot is hammering on the fact that literally every economist worth his/her salt had been predicting a recession even BEFORE the virus hit, and even using the hashtag #TrumpRecession. We CANNOT let him wriggle out from under this. It would be one thing for him to somehow start the economy trending back up just before the election, but it would be quite another for it to continue to tank yet he still escapes blame for it.

And that was a flop like very hung else he tries.

He’s going to get decimated in November and drag the entire party into ash heap of history.

Trump is the beneficiary of a full-blown cult of personality like nothing we’ve ever seen before in this nation. And right now, there are three groups of Americans.

Group 1 is the one we’re in. Group 1 people wouldn’t vote for Donald Trump under any circumstance. We know how big a scumbag he is. A third of the country is in Group 1.

Group 2 are your traditional swing voters. They vote on economic issues. I suspect Trump won’t be getting much of this third of the country because of a mixture of recession, fiscal mismanagement, embezzlement and middle class tax increases by or on behalf of President 021.

Group 3 is the problem. You remember the story of Job in the Bible? In essence, God and Satan had this bar bet going that Job could get his life completely trashed and still praise God. That’s where your Trump supporters are: no matter how utterly fucked a Trumpist is, no matter how bad Trump shafts them, they will still be Trumpists.

There is a belief shared by Elvis Presley fans that if you were to lock Fat Elvis in a room and force him to listen to his records, he would give up the Vegas lifestyle and go back to being the King of Rock and Roll. A similar belief among us is that if we were to lock Trump’s fan base in a room and lay out all his atrocities, they would give up being Trumpists. Not so, folks; Trumpists love that a schoolyard bully is now president of the United States.

We are going to win the election on swing voters, and then we need to gerrymander the living fuck out of this country until we’ve weeded the GOP population of the House down to less than 100. I’ve been told by people I respect here that we shouldn’t gerrymander the country, that we should fight gerrymandering. If we had a rational opposition party in this land, I would agree. But we’ve got a party that let Donald Fucking Trump walk out of his impeachment trial unconvicted even though the bastard is as corrupt as an Alaskan summer day is long. They have to be neutered. Since the Constitution prevents us from doing it the old school way (axes, guillotines and ropes are necessary for that) we’ll simply have to make it impossible for them to get elected.

the ideologues, the racists, the authoritarian wannabees looking for a strong man, the greedy opponents of government regulation -- that's the irreducible 25% or 30%

But I think a good number of the rest will swing to our side, not because we convince them but because they listen to the people around them, many of whom will turn against him

A great majority of Americans already believe his response to the largest challenge we have faced in a century totally sucked. And people are dying because of it.

Now because of his mixed messaging lots of red state governors are about to try to open things up. Not just sparsely populated states like the Dakotas. But Georgia, for gods sake. It’s gonna get ugly in those states.

At least in Florida the Governor has not kept local governments from taking their own actions.

Hail Mary, so appropriate! - "pray for us sinners now and at the hour of our death"

...come November. AMEN!