we certainly should try to win a super majority in the Senate

mcconnel could well be replaced by an even more intractable regressive leader.

without at least a majority president biden will not get a confirmed sec of state much less supreme court justice.

The biggest problem is that in multiple states our strongest candidates refused to run

Here is my completely up to date, most detailed post yet on the state of the races.

We need a plus 4 net to flip the Senate to a 51-49 Dem advantage (so no power sharing agreements needed at all) as it stands, and a plus 5 net if we lose Doug Jones, which is, unfortunately likely as Paedo Moore was crushed in the Rethug Primary, and I fear either Tuberville (probably the favourite to win the Rethug run-off) or Sessions will win.

We should absolute hold all our other seats. Jeanne Shaheen in NH is the only one that is probably not a 99% lock, with the Rethugs choosing between Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army brigadier general, Bill O'Brien, former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. Senator and former Attorney General of New Hampshire, Scott 'Pickup' Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, and 2014 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from New Hampshire. Gary Peters in MI is the next closest for us to hold IMHO.

These are all the remotely possible races where we can flip, all 13 of them. Some are very much a stretch, and also we are having a lot of big names refuse to run, in fact, all the arguably best candidates in 10 of the 13 seats have all refused, so far, to run.


These are the only 3 states ATM with our strongest possible (from the beginning) candidates running (but I am happy with who we did get in IA, NC, and ME as well):

Arizona Mark Kelly has a great chance at beating McSally. This was (until Hickenlooper got smart) the only state so far that we had the best potential candidate already running.

Colorado Hickenlooper now running makes it 90-95% that we flip this. Even if you do not think he is the best on policy, he still is the most electable. All I ask is that he knocks it off with the red-baiting (saying progressives are bringing back Stalin and Marx's policies), which is asinine and plays into the Rethug's hands. I would much prefer Joe Neguse or Andrew Romanoff to Hickenlooper strictly on policy, but that just is not going to happen and Hickenlooper should romp to victory..

Montana Bullock finally decided to run, and he gives us a great chance to flip this Blue.


Now the ones who do NOT have our strongest candidates running as of yet (again IA, NC, and ME should be fine):


Alaska (I hope Mark Begich, our ex US Senator there, runs versus Sullivan, he has said he was not, but now may change his mind.) If Begich ends up completely declining, then it will probably up to Independent Al Gross, as Ethan Berkowitz, mayor of Anchorage, and Forrest Dunbar, Anchorage assemblyman and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2014 have both also declined. If no Begich, this is a hard one to win.

Maine (Susan Rice, who has said no quite emphatically, would have been the best to knock out the POS hypocrite Collins IMHO, but hopefully we can find another great one, it looks likely to be Sara Gideon atm, I think Gideon can take out Collins, just was more sure on Rice, but she is not going to run and I respect her choice.).

Tennessee (open Rethug seat, due to Alexander retiring, I so hope Tim McGraw (yes the superstar singer, who said for years he would run when he was 50, and he is 52 now) reconsiders his turndown, he would have the best shot from all I have seen, most of the other candidates we have are already one time losers, some just last year, or pretty unknown. The two I see who are the best should McGraw not change his mind are Jeff Yarbro and especially James Mackler)

Georgia With Isakson retiring (there will be an interim Repug appointed for the last year) There are now TWO seats we can flip. Stacey Abrams and Sally Yates would have had the best chances by far to beat Perdue and Rethug X, but each one has said no over and over, so it is going to be much harder I fear, even though Perdue is weak, and a shit campaigner. Jon Ossoff has now declared for David Perdue's seat, as have Teresa Tomlinson, and Sarah Riggs Amico.

In the other race, the Special Election, we REALLY need Sally Yates to change her mind, as so far we have no really strong candidates there, and it deffo is winnable as the Rethugs have a NASTY fight on their hands, between White Power Barbie Kelly Loeffler (currently sitting) and then Trump arse-licker uber scum, Doug Collins. Collins will crush Loeffler in the Rethug Primary. So far the Dems who have declared are Matt Lieberman, businessman and son of Joe Lieberman, former U.S. Senator from Connecticut, Ed Tarver, former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Georgia and former state senator, Raphael Warnock, the head pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, and Richard Dien Winfield, professor and candidate for Georgia's 10th congressional district in 2018.


Kansas Open Rethug seat due to Roberts retiring, the right candidate for us has a shot, and that is Kathleen Sebelius, but she also just said no, and a big local paper says that really hurts our chances This is a carbon copy of Montana, just swap in Sebelius for Bullock, its a Red state and all the insiders say she is only Dem who can win. Sebelius needs to follow Bullocks' lead and jump in!!!

Iowa (Cindy Axne and Vilsack, probably our 2 best chances to beat the detestable Joni Ernst, both have declined to run, but I have hope Theresa Greenfield will be the Dem winner and has a great shot at beating the POS Ernst)

North Carolina Our two best candidates by far, Foxx and Stein, have both said no, and Cal Cunningham is now our nominee. I still think he can beat the really weak Tillis, who is very unpopular there.


now the two wishful thinking states:

Kentucky This is probably the 2nd toughest. Andy Beshear might have had a shot at dumping McTurtle, but he ran (and won!!!) the Governorship. Amy McGrath is who we are probably going to have to roll with, and it is not impossible, due to McConnell being truly hated even by some Rethugs, his overall approval numbers are worse than Rump by far, amongst the bottom in all the Senate. Overall a huge reach, but so hope Moscow Mitch goes DOWN. McGrath needs to make no more errors like the one she did right at kickoff (saying she would have voted yes for Kavanaugh for SCOTUS. The same thing crushed Bredesen in TN in 2018, it so depressed our base turnout.)

Texas Cornyn in Texas is the toughest reach, Cornyn is streets ahead of Cruz in terms of TX popularity. I like Amanda Edwards a lot, but she lost in the Primary, so now it is a runoff between MJ Hegar and Royce West. I think Hegar wins the runoff. I wonder if Democratic House member Henry Cuellar (who unfortunately won his primary in his deep blue district on Tuesday) will campaign for and fundraise for Rethug Corbyn against Hegar, as he sabotaged her in 2018 by campaigning and fundraising for her Rethug opponent, the despicable bigot and climate change denialist, John Carter. He seems to have a true dislike for her. If he does that again, I think he should be kicked out of the Party. He voted around 70% of the time with the Trump in the last full congress, is anti-LGBTQ, Pro Life, and A - rated by the NRA.

Schumer and Cortez Masto have been fairly poor at recruiting the best candidates, it is one of the biggest stories of 2020 so far, although they FINALLY (I think it was Obama who got him) changed Bullock's mind. I am going to give up on pulling the people who I think are strongest in ME, IA, (those two I am happy with who we have) NC, (already decided, it is Cal Cunningham, who I am also happy with) TX, GA, (the regular one, as zero chance Stacey Abrams will run now) and KY. We just have to roll with who we have there now. AZ, CO and MT (yay!) now have our best possible, so that leaves:

AK (Begich run!)
TN (McGraw run!)
KS (Sebelius run!)
GA (Special election) (Yates run!)


IF all those above change their minds and run, I can say, with at least 60% or more confidence, we will hit at least 6 flips, and maybe, IF Rump just gets crushed, win as many as 9 or 10. run!)


IF all those above change their minds and run, I can say, with at least 60% or more confidence, we will hit at least 6 flips, and maybe, IF Rump just gets crushed, win as many as 9 or 10.

I do have to add that if those four do not run, picking up any of the 4 is going to be really tough, and it looks like none of the four are going to jump in.


Gun to my head atm:

We hold all our seat except Jones, who goes down.

We flip

AZ
CO
MT
IA
ME
NC

(That gives us a 52-48 majority)

with GA (the regular only) and KY (due to Moscow Mitch being so hated) as maybes

I am pretty unhappy with Sebelius, McGraw, Begich, and Yates (Abrams may be, and IMHO should be, Biden's VP, so she gets a semi-pass) not running, especially Sebelius and McGraw, and those 2 are bloody OPEN SEATS and they are arguably the only candidates we can field who have a good chance at winning.

including SCOTUS.

The next administration.