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DrToast

(6,414 posts) Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:11 PM Apr 2020

Fascinating article about annual flu deaths (Spoiler: They are estimates)

We keep hearing about how the flu kills 40,000 to 60,000 per year. But what I didn't know, and I imagine most people don't know is those are calculated estimates. Right now we're counting COVID-19 deaths when they are confirmed cases of the disease. But if we did the same thing with the flu death count...

"In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620"

Now there's legitimate reasons for doing it this way, as many flu deaths get missed by the system. But the figures show the same thing is happening with COVID-19. So we've been comparing apples to oranges--an estimate (flu deaths) to a non-estimate (COVID-19)!

Great article here. I highly recommend it!

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

11 replies

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Fascinating article about annual flu deaths (Spoiler: They are estimates) (Original Post) DrToast Apr 2020 OP

Excess Deaths tell the true scale of the Covid-19 pandemic. Not even Florida can cover up. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #1

But even if our current count is 100% accurate... DrToast Apr 2020 #3

just curious why you'd mention floriduh? they seem terrible at covering things up ;) nt mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #5

Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #7

K & R malaise Apr 2020 #2

The CDC has been completely irresponsible for years in their reporting of flu deaths. Squinch Apr 2020 #4

The difference BGBD Apr 2020 #9

No. That's not the difference. The difference is that the CDC Squinch Apr 2020 #10

Remember the CDC changed its criteria for designation as an infection or death on the 14th. Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #6

That is good then DrToast Apr 2020 #8

This message was self-deleted by its author Squinch Apr 2020 #11

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,007 posts)

1. Excess Deaths tell the true scale of the Covid-19 pandemic. Not even Florida can cover up. . . nt

Reply to DrToast (Original post)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:13 PM

Apr 2020

DrToast

(6,414 posts)

3. But even if our current count is 100% accurate...

Reply to Bernardo de La Paz (Reply #1)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:22 PM

Apr 2020

.... it’s not, but let’s assume it is. We’re still incorrectly comparing that figure to as projection of flu deaths. 🍎s to 🍊s big time!

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)

5. just curious why you'd mention floriduh? they seem terrible at covering things up ;) nt

Reply to Bernardo de La Paz (Reply #1)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 10:18 PM

Apr 2020

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,007 posts)

7. Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop

Reply to mr_lebowski (Reply #5)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 10:26 PM

Apr 2020

Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop.
When the medical examiners’ list was available, it showed more deaths than the state’s count.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/

The list had previously been released in real time by the state Medical Examiners Commission. But earlier this month, after the Tampa Bay Times reported that the medical examiners’ death count was 10 percent higher than the figure released by the Florida Department of Health, state officials said the list needed to be reviewed and possibly redacted.
Related: Florida’s count of coronavirus deaths is missing some cases

They’ve now been withholding it for nine days, without providing any of the information or specifying what they plan to remove. Dr. Stephen Nelson, the chairman of the state Medical Examiners Commission, said the change in policy came after the state health department intervened.

The medical examiners’ list does not include names. But it provides demographic information, probable cause of death and case summaries with information about each person’s medical and travel history.

Nelson — who is also the medical examiner for Polk, Highlands and Hardee counties — said state officials told him they plan to remove causes of death and case descriptions. Without that information, the list is meaningless, he said.

malaise

(269,054 posts)

2. K & R

Reply to DrToast (Original post)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:19 PM

Apr 2020

Get thee to the greatest page

Squinch

(50,955 posts)

4. The CDC has been completely irresponsible for years in their reporting of flu deaths.

Reply to DrToast (Original post)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 10:05 PM

Apr 2020

Their numbers are wild guesses, and we are now seeing what 60,000 deaths in a season REALLY look like.

BGBD

(3,282 posts)

9. The difference

Reply to Squinch (Reply #4)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 10:30 PM

Apr 2020

is that flu season is spread out from October to April. We're seeing what one month of 60k deaths is, not five months of 60k deaths. Plus, 60k deaths would be a pretty bad flu season.

Squinch

(50,955 posts)

10. No. That's not the difference. The difference is that the CDC

Reply to BGBD (Reply #9)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 10:36 PM

Apr 2020

reports ridiculous ranges like, "there were between 16,000 and 60,000 flu deaths this season" knowing that there were nowhere near 60000 deaths, and also knowing that the media will always report the highest number of their wild guess. A wild guess that is not based at all on information about flu, because flu deaths are simply not reported in most states. The wild guess is based instead on deaths from all respiratory causes, most of which have nothing to do with the flu.

Ms. Toad

(34,075 posts)

6. Remember the CDC changed its criteria for designation as an infection or death on the 14th.

Reply to DrToast (Original post)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 10:25 PM

Apr 2020

So they are counting more than confirmed cases. They are also counting people based on epidemiology + symptoms + no other explanation. There have been thousands of deaths reclassified (which also bumps up the case count).

So there's not as much difference as there used to be in counting the deaths.

DrToast

(6,414 posts)

8. That is good then

Reply to Ms. Toad (Reply #6)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 10:27 PM

Apr 2020

I just had no idea the flu figures were estimates though.

Response to DrToast (Original post)

Squinch This message was self-deleted by its author.

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