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swag

(26,487 posts) Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:20 PM Apr 2020

Prolonged COVID-19 plateau, rather than consistent decrease, foreseen by prominent virologist.

"“It’s clear that social distancing has had a large impact on transmission,” he wrote. “However, this effect has been shy of suppression nationally and hence the plateau in cases rather than a consistent decrease.”

"I would suspect that the dynamic we're looking at is local policy decisions / people's changing behavior as risk is perceived to decrease resulting in increasing local case counts and then a cycle of increased social distancing to compensate.

There may well be cities / counties that achieve suppression locally, but nationally I expect things be messy with flare-ups in various geographies followed by responses to these flare-ups.

If we continue at our current pace of perhaps ~300k infections per day (

The US would have very roughly 50M cumulative infections by September 1 and be at ~15% population immunity.

I'd be happy to wrong here and start to see a week-over-week decline. I just don't know what gets us there if we're not there already."

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11 replies

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Prolonged COVID-19 plateau, rather than consistent decrease, foreseen by prominent virologist. (Original Post) swag Apr 2020 OP

This sounds pretty realistic to me. ananda Apr 2020 #1

Well, for starters, it's 30K new infections/day, not 300K... n/t TygrBright Apr 2020 #2

He may take it as well-founded to expect 10 times as many infections than only positive tests. nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #5

The virologist is on Twitter. You can debate him there. swag May 2020 #9

I have been checking the graphs of various countries BigmanPigman Apr 2020 #3

First need a lot of Covid & pandemic infrastructure (testing, tracing) to knock out flareups. nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #6

If you succeed in "flattening the curve", then you push new cases out into the future. SharonAnn May 2020 #10

That's how it looks on the US graph BigmanPigman May 2020 #11

Happy to be wrong? Laelth Apr 2020 #4

If we have an extended plateau I wonder how the RW will spin it captain queeg Apr 2020 #7

You don't need to be an expert BGBD Apr 2020 #8

ananda

(28,866 posts)

1. This sounds pretty realistic to me.

Reply to swag (Original post)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:25 PM

Apr 2020

One reason is that a whole lot of cases and deaths
are not being counted.

The other is that there are still going to be crazy
people and governors violating social distancing
practices.

TygrBright

(20,762 posts)

2. Well, for starters, it's 30K new infections/day, not 300K... n/t

Reply to swag (Original post)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:27 PM

Apr 2020

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,007 posts)

5. He may take it as well-founded to expect 10 times as many infections than only positive tests. nt

Reply to TygrBright (Reply #2)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:48 PM

Apr 2020

swag

(26,487 posts)

9. The virologist is on Twitter. You can debate him there.

Reply to TygrBright (Reply #2)

Fri May 1, 2020, 12:05 AM

May 2020

Link to tweet

BigmanPigman

(51,609 posts)

3. I have been checking the graphs of various countries

Reply to swag (Original post)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:28 PM

Apr 2020

on Worldometers and I certainly see the differences in countries. Sweden is spiking all over the place like a roller coaster, Turkey has managed to make their numbers decline and continue to do so and Russia is going up, up up.

The US is sort of plateaued but is still spiking a lot (too much). It is too soon to open, judging from the numbers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,007 posts)

6. First need a lot of Covid & pandemic infrastructure (testing, tracing) to knock out flareups. nt

Reply to BigmanPigman (Reply #3)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:50 PM

Apr 2020

SharonAnn

(13,776 posts)

10. If you succeed in "flattening the curve", then you push new cases out into the future.

Reply to BigmanPigman (Reply #3)

Fri May 1, 2020, 12:36 AM

May 2020

They still occur. Just later in time. So you would expect to see a long plateau.

BigmanPigman

(51,609 posts)

11. That's how it looks on the US graph

Reply to SharonAnn (Reply #10)

Fri May 1, 2020, 01:05 AM

May 2020

at this site. They have all the countries' and states' on graphs about containment and projections. The US goes up until Aug 4th then plateaus at 72,000 deaths.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Laelth

(32,017 posts)

4. Happy to be wrong?

Reply to swag (Original post)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:37 PM

Apr 2020

I’d be happy if this person were right. That sounds like a best-case scenario to me.

-Laelth

captain queeg

(10,208 posts)

7. If we have an extended plateau I wonder how the RW will spin it

Reply to swag (Original post)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 10:07 PM

Apr 2020

And will much of the population just accept it? And especially if it “only hits old people”. Most of the population doesn’t care about the ongoing wars in the Middle East because the overall casualties aren’t that high and the financial costs are hidden. However I think as time goes on most everyone is going to know someone who got very sick or died. The economy is never going back to where it was but that will be the carrot the RW dangles to the masses.

BGBD

(3,282 posts)

8. You don't need to be an expert

Reply to swag (Original post)

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 10:23 PM

Apr 2020

To see that this is the truth of every place that has passed a peak. It's not so much a decrease as it is a plateau for a while followed by a long, gradual decline. It's not a bell.

Think of it like your oven. You can run it up to 500 degrees in a just a few minutes, but when you but it'll off it doesn't cool down that fast. It will be hot of a long time and won't be back to its original temperature for hours if you leave it closed.

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