individuals was obviously was way underestimated (that is, far more of the population was infected already w/ the CV to begin with), which would kind of explain why numbers are remaining stubbornly high.

In STLMO we seem to be reaching a 'positive' plateauing of numbers (CV cases), but we're still too early to determine (as the med. experts are saying), whether it's a temporary pause to even higher numbers of CV cases, or if the downward trends long anticipated is finally here.

The city (STLMO) started its self isolation weeks before the state of MO did. What I dread is that sure, we got it beat in the city (STLMO), but then some idiot from outstate MO (where they did no testing, no self isolation) will come into the city to do a rehab job or something, and then start the whole damn thing again. I hope not.

The obituaries of folks in their 70s on up continue to pile up at the funeral homes in my area.

A friend of mine just lost her father to it, and her mother, who is in the same nursing home, is fighting for her life.

First was testing and second is cultural. The largest ethnic cultural group are African Americans. Whom much like the Hispanic Culture,are Family oriented and meet for Family occasions in usually large numbers. When twenty five family members or more elaborate Birthdays,now that is Family Oriented.

And Mass is pushing testing testing and more testing.

Stay-at-home order started 3/24. Let's assume total lockdown that date.

You'd expect positives to peak around 3/31, and tail off.

Hospitalizations should peak around 4/7. And deaths around 4/21.

That's naive, though. There's still going to be transmission in families, through social networks, at work, so it'll continue to spread a bit (since "family" means all sorts of things). It wasn't a total lockdown, and it takes a while for some people to sort out that they really should do things differently. We're not all natural-born introverts who need to have a reminder set to leave the house once a week whether they need to or not. (That's me. I have this app that gives me points for driving with my phone disabled and it records every time the phone moves in a way that says it's in a car. I have 5 trips in April, and that's only because there was an extra trip to go to the garage to have the beast worked on.)

So tack a week on to those numbers and smear out the peaks as a result. Peak deaths should be 4/28 or thereabouts. You'd expect hospitalizations to go down--and the fact that they're not might mean a lot of people who didn't seek hospitalization before are now (not how I bet) or it might mean that the social-distancing measures for the first couple of weeks weren't really that rigorously observed. It's the latter that I think is likely, especially in communities with less buy-in of government-imposed behavioral norms--buy-in that was achieved real quick when the demographic numbers were plastered all over the media and it became a sign of resistance to oppression instead of compliance with imposed norms to engage in social distancing.


I'd expect there to be a drop in hospitalizations by the end of next week.