Unfortunately for the nation his prediction is proving to be correct and we could very well reach 100,000 deaths by the end of this new month, especially with these southern governors so anxious to toe the trump line and open up businesses like barber and beauty shops, and tattoo parlors, for God's sake.

accurate. According to infection2020.com we have 65226 deaths as of today an increase of 3142 in the last 24 hours.

in May would be 62,000 more added to the already 65,000=127,000 dead—God, we are so screwed.

And trump stooge Kushner's recent bloviation about what a great job they've done in handling the virus makes one want to kick his face in on the TV screen—I didn't, amazed myself at my restraint though. I'll donate a few more bucks to Biden.

We'll blow through that by May 8. If you look at deaths per day, factor out the peak when NY added probable covid deaths causing an artifical peak, then the deaths per day has not peaked. If you toss out NY, you can really see how deaths per day are rising overall. When data people start looking at mortality in 2020 vs background mortality rates from previous years people are going to be shocked.

The deaths per day curve is also skewed left for all countries in the EU at least, so less than half the total deaths have occurred before the peak.

We'll have 130,000+ deaths by sometime in August.

That IMHE model is not a true epidemiological model, and after reading their documentation and seeing their software I personally find it to be a joke. I did mathematical modelling (not epedimiology) for 30 years, retired now so I have time to understand some of the issues around epidemiological models and I've gained a real appreciation for the folks in epidemiology who build actual functional models, and at that, they are very careful not to trot out garbage numbers like the IMHE produces.

The whitehouse uses the IMHE model because it produces the lowest numbers, which is not very helpful. Realistic numbers would be helpful to manage resources.

The new cases are deeply disturbing.

I don't think cases are going up that much. The data is skewed because of the large improvement in testing

... should be halved when testing amount doubles IINM.

It looks like testing is revealing a possible rise, looking at the death rate increase

Over 10k a day. I would expect the number to go up of new cases.

You have to see this through to the end. Don't lose focus, don't get distracted, and don't listen to ignorant yahoos. Cuomo doesn't seem the type to be stampeded, so New York may have weathered the worst of it, and it was really bad. Next week is when we'll start seeing the results in the states that knuckled under to the yammerers.

For the first 30 days or so, the goal was 10,000 tests a day. Never hit it.
The last 10 days, the lowest number was nearly 11,000 with a high of 16+ thousand.
So they tested around 200k in 30 days and now 130,000 in 10.
So, our actual infections have probably been this high for a while.
We've averaged >100 deaths a day over this same period.
The curve is flattening, but no peak yet. Definitely no decline.