Democrats are now favorites to take control of the Senate from Mitch McConnell: Election analyst
Published 4 mins ago on May 2, 2020
By Matthew Chapman
The conventional wisdom for most of the 2020 cycle has been that the Republicans have the advantage in the battle for the Senate. While they are defending far more seats, most of those seats are in states that President Donald Trump won by double digits and that will not be seriously contested in November. One person pushing this argument until recently was election forecaster Harry Enten.
Now, however, Enten has changed his mind. Writing for CNN on Saturday, he argued Democrats are now favorites to win the Senate in 2020 — if only slightly.
“To gain Senate control from Republicans in November’s elections, Democrats will need a net gain of three seats (if former Vice President Joe Biden holds onto his lead over President Donald Trump and claims victory) or four seats (if Trump wins),” wrote Enten. “An early look at the data finds that Democrats are the slightest of favorites to take back the Senate. The chance Democrats net gain at least 3 seats is about 3-in-5 (60%), while the chance they net gain at least 4 seats is about 1-in-2 (50%).”
“There is still a lot of uncertainty,” added Enten. “Democrats could realistically end up anywhere from a net loss of 4 seats to a net gain of 11 seats, though a few more times than not, they’ll end up in the majority.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/democrats-are-now-favorites-to-take-control-of-the-senate-from-mitch-mcconnell-election-analyst/
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