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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWaPo confirms: A draft government report projects covid-19 cases will surge to about 200,000 per day
A draft government report projects covid-19 cases will surge to about 200,000 per day by June 1, a staggering jump that would be accompanied by more than 3,000 deaths each day.
The document predicts a sharp increase in both cases and deaths beginning about May 14, according to a copy shared with The Washington Post. The forecast stops at June 1, but shows both daily cases and deaths on an upward trajectory at that point.
The White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quickly disavowed the report, though the slides carry the CDCs logo. The creator of the model said the numbers are unfinished projections shown to the CDC as a work in progress.
The work contained a wide range of possibilities and modeling was not complete, according to Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model.
More: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/government-report-predicts-covid-19-cases-will-reach-200000-a-day-by-june-1/2020/05/04/02fe743e-8e27-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html
MelissaB
(16,420 posts)Link to tweet
Voltaire2
(13,033 posts)SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)NNadir
(33,518 posts)...people like this guy in the "Blue Lives Really Don't Matter" squad:
It is a shame that these types will be disease vectors, and may sicken people who are, um, human beings instead of being racist apes, but the Darwin award exists for a reason.
I hate to be cold, but it's a reality. Live by the big mouth, die by the big mouth.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)We have anywhere from 25,000-30,000 new infections per day now. So 200,000 is roughly 7x that amount.
And we have been averaging 2,000 MOL deaths per day.
Even their math seems overly optimistic with only 3,000 deaths per day.
genxlib
(5,526 posts)That math only works if we are capturing all of those asymptomatic and mild cases that we were previously missing.
And I do mean ALL of them.
I don't think that we have shown the capacity or the will to do that level of testing.
Or perhaps, the study meant actual cases and not just confirmed cases. That would make a lot more sense.
C_U_L8R
(45,002 posts)Whatever could go wrong will definitely go wrong - only bigly-er
BComplex
(8,051 posts)This is the USA under total republican rule (white house, justice department, senate).
Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)Doodley
(9,091 posts)will be "tremendous." He doesn't think the number of cases or the death toll matter as much.
Ms. Toad
(34,072 posts)Ohio started with 1 case when it started shut-down measures - and here we are at ~20,500.
So do they really think the exponential math works differently when you start with 20,500, instead of 1?????
The # of cases in every jurisdiction vastly exceeds the number of cases that justified shutting down in the first place. Reopening the country before we have the capability to trace infections and isolate is asinine.
Botany
(70,504 posts)So long, it's been good to know ya
So long, it's been good to know ya
So long, it's been good to know ya
What a long time since I've been home
And I've gotta be driftin' along
I've sung this song, but I'll sing it again
Of the people I've met and the places I've seen
Some of the troubles that bothered my mind
And a lot of good people that I've left behind, singing
So long, it's been good to know ya
So long, it's been good to know ya
So long, it's been good to know ya
What a long time since I've been home
And I've gotta be driftin' along
Alex4Martinez
(2,193 posts)Then blame Obama.
genxlib
(5,526 posts)That they mean real cases and not just tested and confirmed cases.
We all know the real prevalence of the virus has been way beyond the confirmed cases due to a limited testing.
It's the only way the math works. If they were counting new confirmed cases, the number of deaths would be way higher as noted elsewhere here.
ProfessorGAC
(65,042 posts)Either that, or they are including a notion that mass testing will kick in.
That would make the math work, too, but seems unlikely.
Alex4Martinez
(2,193 posts)Well, that didn't take long.
https://www.kpcw.org/post/white-house-rejects-government-report-projecting-rising-coronavirus-death-toll
Alex4Martinez
(2,193 posts)Here:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=10
Note the red zones of projected new cases, then follow the vertical lines up from the x-axis for 2020-05-15 and 2020-06-1 and you'll see that the projected daily cases are beginning to rise dramatically.
This is NOT a flattened curve.
Drahthaardogs
(6,843 posts)Open it up! We need the money! FREEDOM!
rurallib
(62,415 posts)almost inconceivable.