Poll: Obama Holds Narrow Edge Over Romney

By JEFF ZELENY

President Obama holds a narrow three-point advantage over Mitt Romney among Americans most likely to vote in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

With their back-to-back political conventions behind them and the general election season fully engaged, the poll found Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney running essentially even among those seen as the most probable to vote. The president has 49 percent and Mr. Romney has 46 percent, a difference within the margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points on each candidate.

<...>

Among a wider sample of registered voters, which included fewer voters who identified themselves as Republicans, Mr. Obama has a stronger command of the race. The poll found that 51 percent of those voters supported Mr. Obama and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., while 43 percent supported Mr. Romney and Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin.

This is the first New York Times/CBS News poll of the election cycle to take a measure of those considered most likely to vote, using a model known as the probable electorate.

- more -

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/poll-obama-holds-narrow-edge-over-romney/

New NYT/CBS

Josh Marshall-

This morning’s new NYT/CBS poll has Obama up by 3 points. But note that this is the first of their polls with a likely voter screen. If you look at registered voters — so an apples to apples comparison with their last poll, which was taken in July — it’s an 8 point move for Obama.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/09/new_nytcbs.php?ref=fpblg