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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump will kill off so many older GOP voters in swing states that it will cost him the election
We're almost at 90K deaths as of 5/15/2020.
We will hit 100K total deaths in a few days.
By the time November rolls around, he will have killed off so many of his own voters in swing states that it will cost him the election.
The below article was published last month.
It looks like Trump is ahead of schedule.
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An academic journal projects that deaths of 65-and-over Republican voters in several swing states will far exceed those of Democrats.
Mass casualties from the coronavirus could upend the political landscape in battleground states and shift contests away from President Donald Trump, according to a new analysis.
Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration journal -- Administrative Theory & Praxis -- conclude that when considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden in the fall.
"The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election -- and that's simply just a calculation of age," Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. "The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that's the key to a GOP victory."
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/23/how-coronavirus-could-upend-2020-battlegrounds-204708
captain queeg
(10,224 posts)At least I hope so. Id think the old folks in assisted living that see a bunch of their friends die wouldnt be too happy about it.
Renew Deal
(81,866 posts)JI7
(89,259 posts)Celerity
(43,462 posts)They will go vote no matter what. Our side won't.
Renew Deal
(81,866 posts)Celerity
(43,462 posts)CentralMass
(15,265 posts)napi21
(45,806 posts)open everything now. They are setting themselves up to get the virus than the Dems who are still saying home instead of eating out, going to the bar etc.
Phoenix61
(17,009 posts)their minds. They are out and about like nothing ever happened. Me and all my Dem friends are still hunkered down.
AllyCat
(16,205 posts)Follow Lesley Jordan on Instagram? He makes me laugh!
Qutzupalotl
(14,320 posts)I hope the deaths decline soon, regardless. This is just nuts.
yonder
(9,669 posts)by his campaign....which leads me to think they really do have plans for disruption, someway/somehow, of the vote in November.
BamaRefugee
(3,484 posts)dont even need these folks to win.
Blue Owl
(50,457 posts)n/t
Thekaspervote
(32,785 posts)who caught it through no fault of their own
If gop cult members are foolish enough to go out there and risk it all, then so be it. I cant help them, I dont think anyone can. Not gonna fret about them anymore
Cha
(297,446 posts)makes no sense.. but it's trump.
murielm99
(30,754 posts)Trump is so narrowly focused on restarting the economy that he can see nothing else. If people die, it means nothing to him. Restarting the economy is his only way to reelection. He can see only one thing at a time.
If there had been a national strategy to stay at home, and if he had encouraged his base to do that, we could have gotten ahead of this thing, somewhat. Then we could have reopened cautiously. He is too stupid to see that doing things his way is ass backward.
Trump has no plan. And I believe he is bored with the pandemic. He wants to do something new, like Obamagate.
Cha
(297,446 posts)the kill plan was being dryly facetious. It's happening.. but the goal is to restart the economy that he singlehandedly(along with his flunkies) killed.
Yes.. I can see those idiots in the "war room".. We need a new shiny thing to distract from your total stupidity, kingcon.
nakocal
(552 posts)Trump will just have someone (probably Russian) just cast their ballot for them anyway. It is what Putin would want.
fierywoman
(7,688 posts)Quixote1818
(28,955 posts)if it was going to be paper thin again this would probably be enough to do the trick. Opening up the state completely could be catastrophic there in terms of deaths.
Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)
Celerity This message was self-deleted by its author.
Celerity
(43,462 posts)Quote
In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category could be lost.
Snip
To get to 11,000 to 13,000 MORE dead Rethugs than Dems in each of states you are talking about over 100,000 of deaths in EACH STATE (100,000 deaths per state minimum, and probably a lot more (look right below at how many deaths the study predicts for PA), as those states have high African American population (%-wise) large cities, and PoC are dying at much higher rates, so that is also a mitigation factor.
look at the study
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10841806.2020.1752978
now look at the actual numbers
As of today, North Carolina has has 667 TOTAL DEATHS
Michigan 4825
Pennsylvania 4429
The study is extremely flawed, as it was based on very early flawed models itself.
If you think 190,000 people are going to die from COVID-19 in just PA by November 3rd, 2020, then I have a bridge in London to sell you.
Rstrstx
(1,399 posts)Funny how the candidate of nostalgia isn't quite as appealing once you realize they consider you to be expendable.
Given their propensity for voting just a subtle change in the senior vote is enough to swing the election in crucial areas like Florida, Arizona and the Great Lakes.
Celerity
(43,462 posts)I think many will change their votes because he has bollocksed up COVID-19 so massively, but that is not what I was addressing at all with my reply.
Jamastiene
(38,187 posts)A lot of right wing old people stay close to home anyhow. A lot of them went through the Depression already. They already know how to make do. They are less likely to get it than you might think. And they, above all of the younger generations, WILL go to the polls. They will get special times to do it, like at the grocery stores, probably.
What I want to know is where is the data on these armed terrorists (that others call, "protesters)? They need to be the ones he kills off the most. THEN, we can be sure we might stand a chance of winning.
Stupid people follow their stupid heroes over a cliff without a doubt or so much as a question. Never forget that. I want our side to win more than anyone, because I am trapped in a very red area of a barely purple, red leaning state. I want Trump gone along with all of the other corrupt Republicans, especially corrupt NC Republicans, because I know how they have run roughshod over my state and were never punished at all for it. They got away with it all.
But, never forget how blindly stupid people will follow that formula Trump has faked to get where he is. And that is what it really is. He has used a formula, that included God, guns, and declaring open season in dog whistles (and sometimes outright) to them. Politics be damned. They want liberal heads on a platter. They want to be out maiming, torturing, and killing minorities. That is their real goal. Never forget that about Trump's base. At their core, all they want is that "open season" feeling to go after minorities. Sure, they hate liberals, but they really REALLY hate black people, gay people, trans people, Jewish people, and women who won't bow down to them. That is what their driving motivation is.
The bigots are the people that should be getting it and dying to lessen the numbers in Trump's base, not older people. Trump's real base is bigots. I know plenty of older people who are NOT Republicans and don't vote Republican, even here in red county hell in a barely purple conservative leaning state. Old people are not the enemy. Old Republicans, sure, but they are not the majority of Trump's base. The majority of Trump's base, in reality, are bigots.