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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhite House's Own Data Crunchers: Southern Counties About to Get Hit Hard
https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-houses-own-data-crunchers-southern-counties-about-to-get-hit-hard
The coronavirus task force has been using data from PolicyLab at Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia to chart the disease. And the new projections arent great.
Erin Banco
National Security Reporter
Updated May. 20, 2020 4:38PM ET / Published May. 20, 2020 4:27PM ET
A new analysis being reviewed by the White House shows southern states that moved too quickly to relax social distancing guidelines face significant risk for a resurgence of the coronavirus over the next several weeks. In several cases, counties will see hundreds of additional cases by June 17.
The study, which was put together by PolicyLab at Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia, is part of a data set being reviewed by top coronavirus task force officials and people working with the team, The Daily Beast reported earlier this month. A previous model by the PolicyLab predicted that if officials moved too quickly and too aggressively to reopen in mid-May, individual counties could witness hundreds, if not a thousand-plus, more coronavirus cases reported each day by August 1.
The new model shows that in southern counties, particularly in Texas, Florida, Alabama, and Virginia, the risk for resurgence is high over the next four weeks. These states have moved to reopen, at least partially, since the team published its last model in April.
The dataset now takes into consideration current levels of social distancing rather than projections about what would happen when local communities reopened. It also includes data for more than 200 additional counties across the country. The findings indicate that the risk for large second waves of outbreaks remains low if communities continue to implement cautious, incremental plans to reopening that limit crowding and travel to non-essential businesses. Doctors working on the study said that without vigilance in masking, hygiene, and disinfection, certain southern counties will remain high risk.
</snip>
The coronavirus task force has been using data from PolicyLab at Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia to chart the disease. And the new projections arent great.
Erin Banco
National Security Reporter
Updated May. 20, 2020 4:38PM ET / Published May. 20, 2020 4:27PM ET
A new analysis being reviewed by the White House shows southern states that moved too quickly to relax social distancing guidelines face significant risk for a resurgence of the coronavirus over the next several weeks. In several cases, counties will see hundreds of additional cases by June 17.
The study, which was put together by PolicyLab at Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia, is part of a data set being reviewed by top coronavirus task force officials and people working with the team, The Daily Beast reported earlier this month. A previous model by the PolicyLab predicted that if officials moved too quickly and too aggressively to reopen in mid-May, individual counties could witness hundreds, if not a thousand-plus, more coronavirus cases reported each day by August 1.
The new model shows that in southern counties, particularly in Texas, Florida, Alabama, and Virginia, the risk for resurgence is high over the next four weeks. These states have moved to reopen, at least partially, since the team published its last model in April.
The dataset now takes into consideration current levels of social distancing rather than projections about what would happen when local communities reopened. It also includes data for more than 200 additional counties across the country. The findings indicate that the risk for large second waves of outbreaks remains low if communities continue to implement cautious, incremental plans to reopening that limit crowding and travel to non-essential businesses. Doctors working on the study said that without vigilance in masking, hygiene, and disinfection, certain southern counties will remain high risk.
</snip>
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White House's Own Data Crunchers: Southern Counties About to Get Hit Hard (Original Post)
Dennis Donovan
May 2020
OP
A cough shows you love freedom and capitalism. And if you really love trump you will die for him
SoonerPride
May 2020
#3
Collectively, we seem determined to do everything bass-ackwards regarding this virus.
Hermit-The-Prog
May 2020
#11
cilla4progress
(24,766 posts)1. too
bad
babylonsister
(171,092 posts)2. Since I live in FL, I think it is bad.
None of us asked for these inept governments.
cilla4progress
(24,766 posts)6. Please dont assume sarcasm.
I agree! It's too bad good Floridians like you are stuck with shitty governors!
babylonsister
(171,092 posts)8. Ha! I did, sorry.
cilla4progress
(24,766 posts)10. No apology
necessary. ❤
crickets
(25,983 posts)7. I hear ya. *waves from GA* nt
babylonsister
(171,092 posts)9. Hey,
long story, but spent 5 years prior to moving to FL in Pooler, GA, outside of Savannah. I am familiar with GA.
retread
(3,763 posts)12. My 5 were in Brunswick. n/t
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)3. A cough shows you love freedom and capitalism. And if you really love trump you will die for him
and they are more than eager to go die for him.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)4. As well as several Midwestern States
that have moved to open Casino's and Bars.
It is going to get darn ugly two weeks down the road with a spike in Virus Cases in Rural Counties that have minimal Health Services to start with.
All those so called Red Areas will soon look like Stearns and Nobles Counties in Minny.
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(108,192 posts)5. K&R
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,416 posts)11. Collectively, we seem determined to do everything bass-ackwards regarding this virus.