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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsExcellent information (not happy though) from Jonathan Smith, an epidemiologist from Yale.
Last edited Sat May 23, 2020, 04:30 PM - Edit history (1)
From Yale Epidemiologist, Jonathan Smith:
https://elemental.medium.com/hold-the-line-17231c48ff17
"As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not being articulated or not present in the literature of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from that peer review.
Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.
First, we are in the beginning of this epidemics trajectory. That means even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They arent. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.
This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Dont.
Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically increases your contacts with family members /
very close friends. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isnt much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.
You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your sons girlfriends mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, its not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that whole chain.
In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level, one quick little get together can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise.
You cant cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a little- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.
Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to choices outside the rules.
My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting sucker-punched by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isnt working and become paralyzed by fear, or to justcheat a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures , my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty."
By Jonathan Smith, a lecturer in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health at Yale University School of Public Health. His research focuses on infectious disease transmission dynamics.
dawg day
(7,947 posts)I have an adult child who lives in the next town, and we've seen each other a couple times for an hour or so. Now I'm thinking that given the formula of exposure X time, probably we shouldn't.
Richard D
(8,779 posts)But real. So sorry. I'd like nothing better than to get a hug from a friend or have friends over for dinner. It's been months since I have touched or been touched by another human. Not even a hand shake. It's friggin hard and incredibly lonely.
Trailrider1951
(3,415 posts)Not much human contact. There are a few bright spots, however. One is my cat. She wakes me up around 6 am, wanting her breakfast. So, I get up and feed her the morning ration of Fancy Feast. Later, she will come to the side of the chair where I'm reading DU and nudge me with her paw, telling me she wants to be petted and brushed. Not really human, but a welcome contact with a friend. Could you adopt a pet cat or dog? It won't take the place of human interaction, but it does help a lot. Hope this helps! **virtual hug**
dawg day
(7,947 posts)He's endlessly entertaining, however, because he's so inscrutable, and he has so many human expressions- but sort of negative human expressions, like "disdain" and "contempt"!
He makes me laugh, and that's good! He walks up to me and looks up and caws like a crow when he wants to be fed.
Also, in the neighborhood, we're all going out and waving at each other. it's kind of a standoffish neighborhood, so this is the friendliest we've ever been.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,658 posts)With all the provisos outlined in the OP - if you decide to allow your kids to see their grandparents, the grandparents must agree to no other social contacts, and vice versa (kids cant have play dates).
Its going to be a long haul, at least until the vaccine is available.
BobTheSubgenius
(11,571 posts)So calm. It makes her more convincing, to me, at least.
Greetings from Victoria!
Fiendish Thingy
(15,658 posts)Greetings from Nanaimo!
FarPoint
(12,447 posts)Is there a link? I would like to share...
nilram
(2,894 posts)FarPoint
(12,447 posts)This is the simple, clear facts...I say...be prepared.
iluvtennis
(19,876 posts)LiberalArkie
(15,729 posts)wear masks.
nilram
(2,894 posts)Adelante
(28,394 posts)barbtries
(28,811 posts)I needed it to share.
Adelante
(28,394 posts)Mike 03
(16,616 posts)What ticks me off is that this information isn't coming from a CDC scientist on a daily or weekly basis on a national news platform. It's like there's an Underground Railroad of responsible information about this pandemic but you have to either be in the right place at the right time to find it, or you have to spend hours a day hunting for it. I don't mind hunting for it, but many people don't have that luxury.
Thanks for posting this. Another gem I wouldn't have seen otherwise.
oldsoftie
(12,615 posts)many people will look for the "expert" who validates THEIR opinion. Whether it be "This is all overblown" or "we're all going to get it" or somewhere in between.
live love laugh
(13,141 posts)Response to Richard D (Original post)
BannonsLiver This message was self-deleted by its author.
WA-03 Democrat
(3,055 posts)In what way? We have to adjust to the new conditions. Doom porn to me is sorry Granny your going to die for commerce.
Or it will all just go away... DJT
Response to WA-03 Democrat (Reply #11)
Post removed
WA-03 Democrat
(3,055 posts)Yes, the OP should have included a link backing it up. One thing I do love about DU is the sourcing and notation. We except it. Its was called out and provided up thread. I should have been clearer.
My question was, Doom or Death Porn is a subversion tactic to desensitize death by authoritative governments. I see half of all twitter comments on COVID-19 are bots (study released yesterday by Carnegie Mellon University). [https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/21/1002105/covid-bot-twitter-accounts-push-to-reopen-america/|
In short, why did you call is doom porn? I dont understand the context. I see it the other side doing it since they have done it forever. They are the anti-life party and they want us dead.
nilram
(2,894 posts)BarbD
(1,193 posts)It's very hard to find truth when even the experts have never seen this virus before.
But, the good science is all we've got.
zed nada
(60 posts)Seriously, having been a teacher of biology for many years and sitting through much microbiology and epidemiology classes and symposia, I have been wondering when someone could get the cold bare facts to the rest of us. All the while as I watch my friends and neighbors seeming to unconsciously move closer to one another. This is the most likely I keep coming to after reading a history or two of things like the Spanish flu, Great Plague, etc.
Thank you again for telling the unvarnished truth about what is most likely to happen. Although I haven't read 'The Power of Positive Thinking' lately. I am sure it would've made me feel much better, for a little while...at least..
calimary
(81,511 posts)"...the unforgiving math of epidemics."
Yep. Can't get around the numbers. Or the facts. Much as trump-world wants and wishes to.
we can do it
(12,197 posts)zed nada
(60 posts)Have been around awhile and have made a practice of not responding to something if I can resist it...just sometimes it is hard to ignore like in these times outrageousness is seemingly everywhere