https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-excess-deaths-may/

A state-by-state analysis shows that deaths officially attributed to covid-19 only partially account for unusually high mortality during the pandemic

By Andrew Ba Tran, Leslie Shapiro and Emma Brown

May 30, 2020

The number of people reported to have died of the novel coronavirus in the United States surpassed 100,000 this week, a grim marker of lives lost directly to the disease, but an analysis of overall deaths during the pandemic shows that the nation probably reached a similar terrible milestone three weeks ago.

Between March 1 and May 9, the nation recorded an estimated 101,600 excess deaths, or deaths beyond the number that would normally be expected for that time of year, according to an analysis conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health. That figure reflects about 26,000 more fatalities than were attributed to covid-19 on death certificates during that period, according to federal data.

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The Yale-led team used historical death data to estimate the expected number of deaths for each week this year, adjusting for such factors as seasonal variation and the intensity of flu epidemics. To calculate excess deaths, the researchers subtracted their estimate of expected deaths from the overall number of deaths reported by the National Center for Health Statistics.

The covid-19 death toll, a key data point in shaping the public-health response to the pandemic, has become a political flash point. Allies of President Trump have claimed that the government tally is inflated, contending that it includes people with other medical conditions who would have died with or without an infection.

The Yale-led analysis, however, suggests that the actual number of people who have died because of the pandemic is far greater than the official government death tallies. The researchers estimated that the number of excess deaths between March 1 and May 9 was most likely between 97,500 and 105,500.

“It’s clear that the burden is quite a bit higher than reported totals,” said Daniel Weinberger, the Yale professor of epidemiology who led the analysis.

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