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It's extremely difficult for an incumbent to be elected when the country is in chaos (Original Post) Yavin4 May 2020 OP
??? Nixon 49 states in 1972 4139 May 2020 #1
72 was in no way as chaotic as 68 was...nt Wounded Bear May 2020 #3
Nixon had a strong economy dalton99a May 2020 #4
Not a chaotic year. John Fante May 2020 #5
America wasn't in chaos in 1972... Drunken Irishman May 2020 #6
My thoughts exactly. n/t customerserviceguy May 2020 #15
If the perception is the Democratic Governor's cannot stop the looting and vandalism in those still_one May 2020 #2
Too many right-wing provacateurs and dirty cops attacking John Fante May 2020 #8
No doubt, but if the looting and vandalism has taken over the perception of the protests for still_one May 2020 #10
Not if the dem governors aren't up for reelection it wont matter as much uponit7771 May 2020 #9
It's extremely difficult for an incumbent to be elected when the country is in chaos FelineOverlord May 2020 #7
'The riots' help trump, incumbent or not. empedocles May 2020 #11
No. They do not. Yavin4 May 2020 #12
Defeatist pablum. BannonsLiver May 2020 #13
How exactly do you think this helps Trump? StarfishSaver May 2020 #14
He pushes the "law and order" line that Nixon exploited customerserviceguy May 2020 #16
Nixon wasn't in charge of the government when he pushed the law and order line StarfishSaver May 2020 #17
May I please ask customerserviceguy Jun 2020 #19
Trump is the government which is why he will lose. Demsrule86 May 2020 #18
He's managed to remain customerserviceguy Jun 2020 #20

John Fante

(3,479 posts)
5. Not a chaotic year.
Sun May 31, 2020, 08:44 PM
May 2020

Especially when compared to the 1967-1970. Only 24,000 troops remained in Vietnam by years end and the war was winding down.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
6. America wasn't in chaos in 1972...
Sun May 31, 2020, 08:44 PM
May 2020

There were no large civil unrest incidents in 1972.

1968 was bad - with riots throughout multiple cities. But then, the incumbent party lost that election.

still_one

(92,201 posts)
2. If the perception is the Democratic Governor's cannot stop the looting and vandalism in those
Sun May 31, 2020, 08:40 PM
May 2020

critical swing states, I wouldn’t count on it

John Fante

(3,479 posts)
8. Too many right-wing provacateurs and dirty cops attacking
Sun May 31, 2020, 08:48 PM
May 2020

non-violent protestor for that perception to stick. Not to mention Trump fanning the flames of chaos with his tweets.

TBH this will likely be just an ugly footnote in a year dominated by COVID-19 and Trump's botched handling of the pandemic.

still_one

(92,201 posts)
10. No doubt, but if the looting and vandalism has taken over the perception of the protests for
Sun May 31, 2020, 08:52 PM
May 2020

whatever reason, it isn’t helpful

FelineOverlord

(3,579 posts)
7. It's extremely difficult for an incumbent to be elected when the country is in chaos
Sun May 31, 2020, 08:47 PM
May 2020

Yes!

Bill Clinton crushed INCUMBENT George H.W. Bush in November 1992 in both the electoral college and popular votes - ESPECIALLY the electoral college.

The LA Riots happened in April and May of that year.

Electoral College:

Clinton 370
Bush 168

Popular:

Clinton 44,909,889
Bush 39,104,550

And Trump is much more hated than Bush I.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election#Detailed_results






Yavin4

(35,440 posts)
12. No. They do not.
Sun May 31, 2020, 09:57 PM
May 2020

He's no where to be found. He's hiding from it, and that's a bad look. A real bad look.

customerserviceguy

(25,183 posts)
16. He pushes the "law and order" line that Nixon exploited
Sun May 31, 2020, 10:34 PM
May 2020

and the suburban soccer moms come back to him. Sure, they were pissed at him for capping their deductions for state and local taxes, but perhaps they may have refocused their anger on the state and local governments that have kept those taxes high. That's especially true if they feel that the taxes go to those in the cities who have been looting and burning.

Folks, this is 1968 all over again, as I see it.

 

StarfishSaver

(18,486 posts)
17. Nixon wasn't in charge of the government when he pushed the law and order line
Sun May 31, 2020, 11:02 PM
May 2020

So he could blame the turmoil on the existing leaders and promise he would fix it if he were elected.

On the other hand, Trump is the sitting president currently in control of the government. It's very difficult for him to convince anyone who's not already in his cult that he will restore law and order if reelected if he can't restore it now. Unlike Nixon, Trump owns the mess so he's in no position to exploit it for political gain. If those soccer moms are frightened, they're not likely to cast their lot with the guy who is causing the problem and has shown no ability to fix it.

2020 is not comparable to 1968

This Isn't Just Like 1968
I’ve heard and seen several people compare today to 1968 and to suggest that Trump, like Nixon, will benefit from the social unrest to win the election. But this is very different.

Among other things, Trump is not comparable to Nixon. 1968 Nixon was outside of government and capitalized on that, promising to step back in to restore the “law and order” he claimed the current government had failed to provide. He was running against the sitting vice president and, by proxy, the incumbent president, whom he painted as responsible for and unable to contain or correct the mess they created.

Conversely, 2020 Trump is the sitting president who is seen by pretty much everyone as deeply involved in and largely responsible for the chaos. Unlike Nixon, he’s not running against the current regime. He IS the current regime. He can’t promise to give us law and order or to step in and fix the mess because he’s already in position to solve the problem but has failed and refused to do so.

Not only that, but unlike in 1968, it is impossible for him to successfully employ Nixon’s tactic of painting this as anti-American hippies and violent blacks threatening a peaceful, patriotic “silent majority.” That won’t work because the right is widely and correctly seen as a hostile group, prone to violence and disruption just as much and, in fact more than, those on the left.

In 1968, Nixon was able to convince frightened white people that he could protect them. But any white person who believes Trump can protect them is already wearing a MAGA cap. But I am pretty sure that very few white people who feel frightened about what’s going on but haven’t decided to vote for Trump are likely to vote for the man who has proven himself incapable of protecting them from all of this because he himself has caused all of this.

On the other hand, Joe Biden is much more in the position Nixon held in 1968: a former vice president who has stepped back into the arena. He is offering an alternative to the madness we’re engulfed in.

But Biden’s no Nixon – he doesn’t have to fear monger or divide or demagogue about law and order because Trump has already done that and has led us to the brink of disaster. He needs only show us how he plans to return us to decency and competence and honesty and voters on the fence will flock to him.

This is not just like 1968.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213512044

customerserviceguy

(25,183 posts)
20. He's managed to remain
Tue Jun 2, 2020, 12:59 AM
Jun 2020

somewhat of an "outsider" while occupying the White House. I know that sounds somewhat counter-intuitive, but the impeachment vote in the House clearly established him as being counter to Democratic government.

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