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Possible November election result? (Original Post) Dawson Leery Jun 2020 OP
And still lose in the electoral college Coleman Jun 2020 #1
What's your solution? bearsfootball516 Jun 2020 #2
We have Democratic governors in the states that Trump needs to win...the blue wall states. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #4
Again, we now have Democratic governors in the states Trump used to get his EC victory. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #3
thank you for those last two words! CTyankee Jun 2020 #6
Also, a 10 point race isn't a close one. Eid Ma Clack Shaw Jun 2020 #7
Here's my thinking: Initech Jun 2020 #5

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
4. We have Democratic governors in the states that Trump needs to win...the blue wall states.
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 11:26 AM
Jun 2020

I am tired of the doom and gloom folks ...most of whom supported a different candidate.

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
3. Again, we now have Democratic governors in the states Trump used to get his EC victory.
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 11:25 AM
Jun 2020

That would be Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Joe is leading in all of these states...just stop.

CTyankee

(63,912 posts)
6. thank you for those last two words!
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 11:29 AM
Jun 2020

I wish we could stop, but upon reflection, my suggestion is we turn the discussion to what we ARE ALREADY DOING in those states to win them. I'd like to hear from folks in our campaigns in those states. It would rest my soul (for I am sure it is plenty), I can tell you that.

Eid Ma Clack Shaw

(490 posts)
7. Also, a 10 point race isn't a close one.
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 11:38 AM
Jun 2020

Yes, it’s a collection of state wide elections blah blah blah, but a 10% lead is never going to fall short of 270. Swing states don’t exist in so much of a bubble that they’ll all line up towards the loser when there’s a national landslide. You reverse that margin and the Democratic candidate is struggling badly to hold on to states like Connecticut, Maine, Delaware, Oregon and New Jersey. New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada and Virginia are long gone; that’s how considerable a 10% win is, so even with the GOP’s baked-in electoral college advantage it’s beyond implausible that a win could be eked our under such conditions.

Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%, and missed out by what, 77,000 votes? Chances are a lead of a further 1% nationwide would have tipped each of the swing states into her column. She’d probably be facing defeat this year, but at least the Trump experiment would be a distant memory.

Initech

(100,081 posts)
5. Here's my thinking:
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 11:28 AM
Jun 2020

Biden will win:

1. CA - 55
2. Oregon -7
3. Washington - 12
4. Nevada - 6
5. Wisconsin - 10
6/ Minnesota - 10
7. Illinois - 20
8. Michigan - 16
9. New York - 29
10. Pennsylvania - 20
11. Vermont - 3
12. New Hampshire - 4
13. Maine - 4
14. Massachusetes - 11
15. Rhode Island - 4
16. Connecticut - 7
17. New Jersey - 14
18. Delaware - 3
19. Maryland - 10
20. DC - 3
21. Ohio - 18
22. Texas - 38
23. Virginia - 13
24. Colorado - 9
25. Hawaii - 4
26. New Mexico - 5

Total: 327

And yes I do think it's quite possible that Texas and Ohio could flip. That would instantly take Florida out of the equation.

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