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blitzen

(4,572 posts)
Tue Jun 9, 2020, 05:21 PM Jun 2020

Very interesting Worldometer special page on actual COVID-19 fatality rate...

They have estimated actual number of cases in New York City: 1.7 million (10 times the reported confirmed case number)

And the actual number of deaths in New York City: 23,000 (twice the official reported number).

Infection fatality rate: 1.4%

Crude mortality rate (percentage of all New York City residents who have died from COVID-19): 0.28% to date


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

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Very interesting Worldometer special page on actual COVID-19 fatality rate... (Original Post) blitzen Jun 2020 OP
That's actually very encouraging. PoindexterOglethorpe Jun 2020 #1
For an infectious disease, that's very high NickB79 Jun 2020 #3
Yes, it's scary. And their page on age groups and comorbidities is scarier. n/t blitzen Jun 2020 #4
That sounds right to me. From the beginning the estimate was 10x the rate of the flu... nt Blasphemer Jun 2020 #2
I'm OK With It ProfessorGAC Jun 2020 #5

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,873 posts)
1. That's actually very encouraging.
Tue Jun 9, 2020, 05:32 PM
Jun 2020

The mortality rate is really quite low. Even the infection fatality rate is very low.

And being over 65 is the single biggest risk factor, and almost everyone under that age who died had some underlying co-morbidity. Plus, sadly, a lot of older people have various medical conditions which puts them at risk.

Perhaps that sounds calloused, but I'm simply restating the obvious.

NickB79

(19,257 posts)
3. For an infectious disease, that's very high
Tue Jun 9, 2020, 06:30 PM
Jun 2020

The vast majority of communicable diseases we face are an order of magnitude or more below that.

Virtually all the diseases we vaccinate our children against have mortality rates of 0.01-0.10.

I mean, it's good compared to Ebola, SARS or smallpox, but that's about it.

ProfessorGAC

(65,134 posts)
5. I'm OK With It
Tue Jun 9, 2020, 06:49 PM
Jun 2020

It's a guess, but there's logic to it.
I have one not to pick, though.

The number of confirmed cases reported as of May 1 by New York City was 166,883 [source], more than 10 times less.

"10 times less"? Really? I hate that. 10 times less is meaningless without another value as the reference. 1% is 10 times less than 10%, OK. 4,000 is not 10x less than 40,000. Unless it's already been established there is 400,000 total. Even then, it's a questionable description.
It's one-tenth. Not 10 times less.
Rant over.
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