Opening Up

One of the things that drives me nuts is when people - anywhere along the political spectrum - change their positions based almost entirely on how they have been affected.

I think I may be becoming one of those people. Damn you, COVID-19.

Stipulated:
-- The US has been massively bad at the response.
-- There is no second wave because we're still in the first wave.
-- Regardless of the massively bad response and the timing, without the shutdowns the infection rates, death rates, and death numbers would be even higher than they are now.
-- There have been increases in virus spread in states that have reopened, due to large gatherings, no masks, etc.

So, now what?

Online schooling has largely failed, for lots of reasons. We may joke about kids being glued to their screens from early ages, but the reality is that kids learn by doing, by being, learning, and playing with their classmates. Sharing, empathy, discipline, and so much more. Gone with distance learning. (Yeah, yeah, it may work with Australian children in the outback. We are not Australian, and most of us don't live in the American equivalent of the outback.) And, you know something, the teachers also value that human contact and believe they are nurturing children's minds, socialization, humanity. This is why they became teachers. Their relationships with their students are critical, and this is lost online. And then there's the practicalities. Broadband access and speed. Multiple devices needed in multi-child households. Scheduling conflicts in those situations.

And no one, really, is confident that we will be in a position to open the schools in the fall. There was an op-ed piece in the NYT the other day by a psychologist who has spent 40 years studying the late adolescent brain and behavior. In short, he says, don't count on college kids abiding by any cautionary guidance.

So, what do we do? Keep schools closed for, what, another 6 months, another year? More? Less? Because of the lack of data and the dismissal of scientific analysis, we really don't know what the costs - financial, medical, social, physical - will be if we as a society make one decision instead of another, i.e., close vs. open, with or without restrictions/conditions. At the risk of being accused of being a granny killer, I have to say that it is, or will very soon be time to discuss these issues very seriously. I'm not talking of sacrificing old people (of which I am one, I have to grudgingly admit) on the altar of the economy. Rather, I am suggesting that we look at what the risks would be in various populations by reopening schools, for example, and hoping for the best, knowing that it will be fundamentally impossible to observe social distancing. If we don't, I would suggest that this generation would be labeled The Lost Generation.

Travel. Countries are reopening, some with limits. Greece, for example, is not allowing anyone from the US or UK. People in the tourism industry there are suffering. In the "I know a guy" category - I know a guy in the tourism industry there who has friends who are, literally, going hungry because the tourism industry is effectively shut down. Opening up for EU travel may improve the situation, but excluding travelers from the US and UK is not a small barrier. How long does this situation continue before there are food riots and demands for internal regime change - Greece is only an example; the same situations may very well develop in other countries as well. There was an article in the paper the other day about how many European cities are enjoying the quiet and loveliness of their home without tourists. The canals in Venice are clean, I read. Okay, that's great. But millions depend on those tourists, and those people are probably not enjoying the quiet and loveliness as much as their compatriots.

Also with respect to travel, countries are issuing and changing travel restrictions damn near on a daily basis. People who want or need to travel are unable to make plans because they are fearful that once on the way, they could be turned back anywhere en route or at the final destination. People who need to travel because of their jobs are being hurt very badly - merchant seamen, for example. Many have been unable to leave their boats or go home. Some are stranded and not being paid. Some are dying. And the numbers are not small. Even in the private vessel side of things, people can't travel to get to their next job (and the number of available jobs is lower than every) or are hesitant to go because they fear they won't be able to return. Not an empty fear; I know a couple of guys (I love that category) who were stuck at the start of the crisis in February/March. One couldn't get out of England, another was stranded in the Caribbean. (BTW, being stuck is not the same as having a vacation.) I know, who the fuck cares about rich people. No one, really, but the people who worked for them are out of work; it may be a niche industry, but it's not a small one.

In my mind, this started out as a rant (I think), and now I'm pretty sure I'm just rambling. My point, I suppose, is that this can't go on indefinitely. Shutdown, reopen, shut down again. Unfortunately, we have absolute buffoons on the job in Washington, and while Joe Biden is a great guy, he's a great guy who is not yet the president. And very hard, very important, decisions need to be made. I admit, I can't get behind sacrificing our old people to get the economy moving again. And I certainly can't get behind anything this regime might propose. But something's gotta give if we're even going to make to November 3.