"That Is an AOC-Level Upset": The Presumptive Ouster of Eliot Engel Emboldens Progressives

Congress
“That Is an AOC-Level Upset”: The Presumptive Ouster of Eliot Engel Emboldens Progressives
Strong showings from Jamaal Bowman in New York and Charles Booker in Kentucky have revealed the schism between Democratic leadership and Democratic voters. Meaning that progressives, as one staffer put it, “shouldn’t write anywhere off.”
By Abigail Tracy
June 24, 2020


When Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley toppled Democratic incumbents Joe Crowley and Mike Capuano, respectively, their victories were largely written off as flukes. The failure of progressives to elect candidates in the ensuing election cycles—Marie Newman being a notable exception—lent support to that narrative. But now, with Jamaal Bowman, a former middle school principal, expected to oust powerful House committee chairman Eliot Engel; the dimming prospects of Amy McGrath, the establishment-backed Democrat, against Charles Booker in Kentucky; and a number of other predicted wins, progressives see themselves in the throes of a political sea change. “Do you know what the left hasn’t had for a while? A bench,” progressive Democratic strategist Rebecca Katz, whose firm, New Deal Strategies, works with the Bowman campaign, told me Wednesday morning. “I’ve always believed we’ve had the right message and flawed messengers, and I think we’re getting new messengers now.”

The official verdicts in many of Tuesday’s races are still out, with thousands of mail-in ballots yet to be counted. But it’s hard to see the momentum among progressive challengers as anything other than a rebuke of the Democratic establishment. Engel has yet to concede his race, but Bowman’s success has been stunning. From his perch as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Engel, a 16-term Democrat, is one of the most powerful members of the House and has played a critical role in shaping U.S. foreign policy. Even as Engel’s reelection was thrown into question over a series of missteps—his absence during the coronavirus outbreak in his district and an awkward hot-mic moment top the list—traditional arbiters of the establishment lined up behind him, including Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer, accompanied by a blitz of negative ads attacking Bowman. As Bowman’s likely double-digit victory suggests, neither tactic did much good. “Our movement is overcoming the culture of fear instilled by the machine and proved victorious in cutting through the smears and millions of dollars of cash from corporate PACs and foreign policy hawks to usher in a new generation of leadership,” Alexandra Rojas, the executive director of Justice Democrats, which backed Bowman, said in a statement.

Meanwhile, in Kentucky, the race between Booker and McGrath remains too close to call, despite the latter being handpicked by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and receiving $41 million in donations. If Booker comes out on top, Karthik Ganapathy, a Booker campaign staffer and a veteran of Bernie Sanders’s 2016 presidential bid, told me it would amount to a “Cantor-level upset”—a reference to Dave Brat’s unexpected victory over Republican and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014. “This is someone who was anointed by the party and given $40 million, right?” Ganapathy said, acknowledging that the race is still too close to call. “It really just sort of flips the script…. You’re not supposed to be able to run on the Green New Deal in Kentucky.”

As the COVID-19 crisis continues to ravage communities—in particular communities of color—and protests over the killing of George Floyd have spilled out across the country, there has been a palpable shift in the political winds. Discontent with the status quo was laid bare as Bowman and Booker surged. While Bowman’s win may now seem inevitable, however, Ganapathy stressed that people shouldn’t lose perspective on progressive momentum. “I feel like the expectations are a little out of whack,” he told me. “A middle school principal with no prior political experience defeating a 20-year incumbent—that is an AOC-level upset.”

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https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/06/eliot-engel-jamaal-bowman-charles-booker-progressives