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demmiblue

(36,853 posts) Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:09 AM Jun 2020

New York Times/Siena battleground polls of registered voters

New York Times/Siena battleground polls of registered voters

Michigan
Biden 47%, Trump 36%

Wisconsin
Biden 49%, Trump 38%

Pennsylvania
Biden 50%, Trump 40%

Florida
Biden 47%, Trump 41%

Arizona
Biden 48%, Trump 41%

North Carolina
Biden 49%, Trump 40%

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11 replies

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New York Times/Siena battleground polls of registered voters (Original Post) demmiblue Jun 2020 OP

Wow, this will cause some butt hurt in the WH. yellowcanine Jun 2020 #1

These are the best polls yet taken together Johnny2X2X Jun 2020 #2

Biden has substantially increased his lead in Arizona from just last week Mike 03 Jun 2020 #3

AZ is going to get more angry at Turd as their families die of COVID lagomorph777 Jun 2020 #6

We've got to make sure this holds, and trump doesn't try to steal this election. BComplex Jun 2020 #4

In 2018 Siena NYT state polls were off by 3 points, on average Cicada Jun 2020 #5

Oof! Hair Furor will not like that one! NT Happy Hoosier Jun 2020 #7

In the electoral college Trumpocalypse Jun 2020 #8

These numbers are fantastic. honest.abe Jun 2020 #9

A long ways to go rockfordfile Jun 2020 #10

That can't be. Many valuable members here Codeine Jun 2020 #11

yellowcanine

(35,699 posts)

1. Wow, this will cause some butt hurt in the WH.

Reply to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:13 AM

Jun 2020

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)

2. These are the best polls yet taken together

Reply to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:16 AM

Jun 2020

Wow. This is landslide land.

Mike 03

(16,616 posts)

3. Biden has substantially increased his lead in Arizona from just last week

Reply to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:17 AM

Jun 2020

when he was up by four.

Now up by 7!

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)

6. AZ is going to get more angry at Turd as their families die of COVID

Reply to Mike 03 (Reply #3)

Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:54 AM

Jun 2020

BComplex

(8,051 posts)

4. We've got to make sure this holds, and trump doesn't try to steal this election.

Reply to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:29 AM

Jun 2020

We need to put safeguards in place NOW!

This is an awesome poll!!

Cicada

(4,533 posts)

5. In 2018 Siena NYT state polls were off by 3 points, on average

Reply to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:52 AM

Jun 2020

State polls typically miss by a lot, six points or so. In 2016 they undercounted Trump in his big 3, Michigan, PA, Wisconsin by five or six. In 2018 state polls were typically off by six. Except for Siena NYT which seems to have a better methodology. They poll from actual official lists of registered voters, not by random calls. I don’t know how they get their phone numbers but they do. They ask for a specific person, say Eric Trump. If he isn’t there they call back later. They only poll Eric at that number.

The big error in 2016 seemed to be not getting enough low educated young white males in the samples, a group which went for Trump at a high rate. In these Siena polls they forced their pool to have a predetermined mix on education, to avoid that error. Doing that increases the Trump vote by about 3 this year so without that fix Trump would probably look about 3 points worse.

These polls are total crushers for Trump. I haven’t looked yet but I predict a big decline for Trump in the betting markets.