The hill, i think?Feeling good, still!!

...and even less so in the upcoming race. Show me polls with Biden up by 7, 8, or 9% in OH, MI, MN, WI, PA, and/or FL perhaps then I'll get excited.

Point one -those polls exist
Point two- While the Electoral College and the popular vote can diverge they can't realistically diverge by twelve points. Hillary won the popular vote by two points and lost the Electoral College by 77,000 votes. Ten extra points would have certainly made up those 77,000 votes.

...but I think we need to play this like we're down by 2. You're right, even given the crappy campaign she ran, basically forgetting about MI, WI, OH, and PA, she still only lost by 77,744 votes. So, I don't think Trump will be able to thread that needle again. But, I also don't want to to take anything for granted. And given the COVID-19 factor, and the fact that Republicans have already states they will try to "dampen" enthusiasm for voting (Code words for voter supression), we need to put our foot on the gas and not take it off until Biden has secured 330+ electoral college votes and the whole Trump clan is perp-walked down Pennsylvania Avenue.

Time to stop blaming Hillary for Russian and Republican cheating and for Hatch Act violations interfering in the election.

When the margins were as close as they were in 2016, it is easy to point to any one little misstep and lay the entire defeat upon it. I think HRC would have been better served by being vocally the proud, progressive liberal she always has been. I felt like the messaging in her campaign really missed the mark - that a focus group was responsible. She is such an amazing person and would have been such an amazing president. I don’t think she was represented well, at all, by the messaging in her campaign.

But we’ve had folks blame Bill Clinton, Obama, Bernie, Bernie supporters, Russia, Comey, and 25 years of right wing smear campaigns.

I think it’s clear that Comey’s actions had an impact, along with the a Russian misinformation and of course the years of right wing smears that HRC had to endure. But most of the other excuses are just people blowing smoke. Anyone who claims they didn’t vote for HRC because Bill or Bernie or Obama campaigned too much (or too little), weren’t going to vote for her anyway.

The "polls don't matter" brigade needs to get out of February. We're on the stretch run now.

Also, Harry Enten, the data guy from CNN, had some historical data recently that does show a correlation between being ahead now and ultimately winning. So they're not worthless based solely on that alone.

Finally, also being missed by a lot of people, is that people are making their minds up NOW. It's not just in October when this happens.

Don’t like the polls? Don’t look at them. Pretty simple. That doesn’t mean others don’t want to talk about them, though.

I've made that point since joining this site. The economic data and approval rating and everything else need to be in the incumbent's favor by mid summer. The electorate generally doesn't change its mind after that point.

We were in denial here in 2004 when all of those indicators pointed to Bush being re-elected. I was stubbornly trying not to accept it as well. Many wagering friends ripped me for that later.

Months ago I was very worried that Trump's approval would continue to rise and he'd be in commanding position at this point. And it really could have happened. Coronavirus should have been an absolute gift for a sitting president. All you have to do is grasp the severity early and get your experts out there along with making lifesaving recommendations of your own. Hillary would have performed brilliantly in a crisis like this, perhaps saving her re-election opportunity.

Fortunately Donald Trump could not help being Donald Trump. His remarkable blowhard ignorance somehow turned what should have been a net gain of several points to a critical forfeiture of several points. This is not over but I'd far prefer being on our side than their side. Note the very low number of undecideds. That seems to be true everywhere, in stark contrast to 2016 and advantage to the person who leads.

A Hillary lead of 9 points was generally something like 45-36. Biden at 9 points ahead is typically 50-41 or thereabouts. That may look similar but it a vastly more problematic landscape for the trail dog. Several percent have long since spit out his lies and won't be tempted or fooled again.

The only thing I'm worried about now is Biden coming across as old when we can least afford it, like during the first debate.

He needs to stick to simple thoughts and short sentences

Not only did who was ahead matter but the candidates one or lost by the percentages they were ahead or behind.

Click on the states to see the state polls, but the map is also color-coded. A blue border indicates a lead under 5%, light blue is 5% to 10%, and dark blue is over 10%.

https://electoral-vote.com/

say WI looks very promising on the map with Biden leading by 9. If the dems can win that state and get PA/MI back which looks very likely then Biden can win the presidency without FL/OH.

There's already enough disappointment for me here. Lol!

a while that it would be nice to be able to win the electoral college without Ohio. You guys get a lot of hype every presidential election but I understand where you are coming from. I feel your pain in the sense I live in purple state in NC. It being bipolar also adds to my frustration. One thing that surprised me is how much Trump won your state compared to mine in '16. In '16 he got 49 percent of the vote here while Hillary got 46 while in Ohio he got over 50 percent. I always tease my cousins who live in OH that I live in the less backwards state based on the '16 results. I rib them by saying "Hey how did you guys become more backwards than NC. We are a southern state but what's your excuse?"

That state used to be considered a bellwether state too, but now it's much more right-wing.

I've wondered why there seems to almost be animosity towards Ohio here. Maybe others are also tired of Ohio's long streak of matching the electoral college winners for so many years?

My thought process when I see it: "Are you TRYING to make the Democrat lose here?!"

matching the electoral college winners that annoys me. I'm just saying this as a guy who is in his 30's. So for my whole entire life I have been hearing every presidential election cycle that Ohio always picks the president. Anyways I would love Ohio to be a democratic state. No hard feelings.

... with Ohio anyway, despite my username here, or just about any other group too much.

I was mostly irritated by generalizations for Ohioans that I saw a few times in 2016 -- more than I witnessed for much redder states even. (Maybe it came from strong disappointment because it's usually a swing state, whereas other states are viewed as a lost cause?)

That map doesn't include NE-2 (Omaha), which as of May 11 had one poll showing Biden at +11. Every electoral vote counts, and with Nebraska splitting its vote by House districts, that's one that has a great chance to go blue, as it did for Obama in 2008.

Like how Maine breaks up their electoral votes that way.

Not sure why it's not shown on that site. Some of them will use a checkered pattern for those states.

Again tRump still has a pathway while losing the popular vote.
https://www.270towin.com/

We have been here before.

https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2018/05/31/17/50/suffolk-university-usa-today-poll-shows-clinton-leading-trump-by-9-points-nationwide

but 4 in 10 Americans are okay with this Trump dude. That's f@cked up!

Let that sink in....

No choice or decision or for the other candidate (in this case @Biden) Don't trust polls.

That’s what we want to see.

Hopefully some confirmation from other polling will follow.

rolling trumps fat orange ass out of the White House.

Yeah, the numbers are lovely but the numbers were lovely in our favor last time and we still ended up with him.

Still, though, I was certain Hillary was going to be President. She did win, but it was close enough to steal. Will not get complacent this time.

because of the fucking Electoral College.