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blitzen

(4,572 posts)
Fri Jul 17, 2020, 06:56 PM Jul 2020

Why COVID-19 Testing Positivity rate matters (my humbly offered opinion)

It's not the primarily the reason we might think--namely, that it indicates a high proportion of the population is infected (although it may well indicate that).

A high positivity rate indicates INSUFFICIENT TESTING in the population at large. We can more or less assume that large-scale groups of patients who present themselves to a hospital or clinic for testing will have more or less similar positivity rates. When a state or municipality reports a high positivity rate, this indicates that they are not actively engaged in testing the population at large (surveillance testing)--large groups who would show a low positivity rate. Hence they will not be able to locate hotspots or do contact tracing to contain the spread. (Remember contact tracing, that quaint old-fashioned idea?)

I gleaned this from looking at this site, where high "positive test rate indicates insufficient testing." But I have not heard this explained by any of the experts, anchors, or reporters on CNN or MSNBC.

https://covidactnow.org/us/fl?s=716119

Anyone here with knowledge who wants to weigh in?

4 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Why COVID-19 Testing Positivity rate matters (my humbly offered opinion) (Original Post) blitzen Jul 2020 OP
I agree with you. Nevilledog Jul 2020 #1
I think that makes a lot of sense. nt Atticus Jul 2020 #2
Yes, mainly it comes from only testing those with symptoms... Wounded Bear Jul 2020 #3
What has been repeatedly seen is that as the amount of testing went up, the positivity rates Blue_true Jul 2020 #4

Wounded Bear

(58,755 posts)
3. Yes, mainly it comes from only testing those with symptoms...
Fri Jul 17, 2020, 08:18 PM
Jul 2020

Until you mass test, on demand, you won't truly know the rate of infection in the population at large.

The number of tests performed so far barely provide a statistical sample of inhabitants, especially since it has been spread out over 6 months.

Statistically, to really know the situation, we would probably have to test 1-3% of the population every week for months.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
4. What has been repeatedly seen is that as the amount of testing went up, the positivity rates
Fri Jul 17, 2020, 09:05 PM
Jul 2020

INCREASED, not decreased.

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