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About that New AP Poll
About that New AP Poll
by Alan Abramowitz
Obama leads Romney by 1 point among likely voters. But wait . . . Obama leads Romney by 15 points among all adults and by 10 points among registered voters. What is going on here? The answer is, they're using a ridiculously tight likely voter screen that counts only 63% of registered voters as likely voters. That might make sense for a midterm election but the normal turnout of registered voters in a presidential election is around 80-85%.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/19/1133835/-About-that-New-AP-Poll
by Alan Abramowitz
Obama leads Romney by 1 point among likely voters. But wait . . . Obama leads Romney by 15 points among all adults and by 10 points among registered voters. What is going on here? The answer is, they're using a ridiculously tight likely voter screen that counts only 63% of registered voters as likely voters. That might make sense for a midterm election but the normal turnout of registered voters in a presidential election is around 80-85%.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/19/1133835/-About-that-New-AP-Poll
The "ridiculously tight likely voter screen" is actually about 67 percent. First, here is the press release.
AP-GfK Poll: Obama job approval numbers back up above 50 percent, but race with Romney still tight
By NANCY BENAC and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are feeling markedly better about the country’s future and about Barack Obama’s job performance, but the president’s re-election race against Republican Mitt Romney remains a neck-and-neck proposition as Election Day creeps ever closer, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.
Buoyed by good mojo coming out of last month’s national political conventions, Obama’s approval rating is back above 50 percent for the first time since May, and the share of Americans who think the country is moving in the right direction is at its highest level since just after the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011.
Romney, his campaign knocked off-stride in recent weeks, has lost his pre-convention edge on the top issue of the campaign — the economy.
The poll results vividly underscore the importance that turnout will play in determining the victor in Campaign 2012: Among all adults, Obama has a commanding lead, favored by 52 percent of Americans to just 37 percent for Romney. Yet among those most likely to vote, the race is drum tight.
Obama is supported by 47 percent of likely voters and Romney by 46 percent, promising an all-out fight to the finish by the two campaigns to gin up enthusiasm among core supporters and dominate get-out-the-vote operations. That’s an area where Obama claimed a strong advantage in 2008 and Republicans reigned four years earlier.
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/uncategorized/our-latest-poll-findings-11
By NANCY BENAC and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are feeling markedly better about the country’s future and about Barack Obama’s job performance, but the president’s re-election race against Republican Mitt Romney remains a neck-and-neck proposition as Election Day creeps ever closer, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.
Buoyed by good mojo coming out of last month’s national political conventions, Obama’s approval rating is back above 50 percent for the first time since May, and the share of Americans who think the country is moving in the right direction is at its highest level since just after the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011.
Romney, his campaign knocked off-stride in recent weeks, has lost his pre-convention edge on the top issue of the campaign — the economy.
The poll results vividly underscore the importance that turnout will play in determining the victor in Campaign 2012: Among all adults, Obama has a commanding lead, favored by 52 percent of Americans to just 37 percent for Romney. Yet among those most likely to vote, the race is drum tight.
Obama is supported by 47 percent of likely voters and Romney by 46 percent, promising an all-out fight to the finish by the two campaigns to gin up enthusiasm among core supporters and dominate get-out-the-vote operations. That’s an area where Obama claimed a strong advantage in 2008 and Republicans reigned four years earlier.
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/uncategorized/our-latest-poll-findings-11
More: http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK%20Poll%20September%202012%20Topline_1st%20release.pdf
Interview dates: September 13– 17, 2012
Number of interviews, adults: 1,512
Number of interviews, likely voters: 807
Are you currently registered to vote at your address, or not?
Yes 79
No 21
So registered to vote is roughly 1,195 respondents, or 67 percent of the total sample. That is a ridiculously tight screen.
Still, here is how the current poll compares to the previous poll...
Among all adults:
Obama 52, Romney 37 (previous poll - Obama 48, Romney 44, an 11-point swing.)
Among registered voters:
Obama 50, Romney 40 (previous poll - Obama 47, Romney 46, an 9-point swing.)
12 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
to make it a race? No one on DU has suspected this at all. 
