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LiberalArkie

(15,716 posts)
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 09:32 AM Jul 2020

A bipartisan group secretly gathered to game out a contested Trump-Biden election. It wasn't pretty

July 26, 2020

WASHINGTON — On the second Friday in June, a group of political operatives, former government and military officials, and academics quietly convened online for what became a disturbing exercise in the fragility of American democracy.

The group, which included Democrats and Republicans, gathered to game out possible results of the November election, grappling with questions that seem less far-fetched by the day: What if President Trump refuses to concede a loss, as he publicly hinted recently he might do? How far could he go to preserve his power? And what if Democrats refuse to give in?

“All of our scenarios ended in both street-level violence and political impasse,” said Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown law professor and former Defense Department official who co-organized the group known as the Transition Integrity Project. She described what they found in bleak terms: “The law is essentially ... it’s almost helpless against a president who’s willing to ignore it.”

Using a role-playing game that is a fixture of military and national security planning, the group envisioned a dark 11 weeks between Election Day and Inauguration Day, one in which Trump and his Republican allies used every apparatus of government — the Postal Service, state lawmakers, the Justice Department, federal agents, and the military — to hold onto power, and Democrats took to the courts and the streets to try to stop it.

Snip

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/25/nation/bipartisan-group-secretly-gathered-game-out-contested-trump-biden-election-it-wasnt-pretty/

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Fiendish Thingy

(15,619 posts)
1. Some flaws in logic and details
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 09:46 AM
Jul 2020
In multiple scenarios, officials on both sides homed in on narrowly decided swing states with divided governments, such Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina, hoping to persuade officials there to essentially send two different results to Congress. If a state’s election is disputed, a legislature controlled by one party and governor of another each could send competing slates of electors backing their party’s candidate.


Michigan state law dictates that electors are appointed by the sec of state based on the results of the state popular vote- the law does not allow for two slates of electors to be sent to Congress.

The article mentions the worst case scenario was if Trump wins EC, but Biden wins popular vote by 5+%. They don’t discuss the outcome that seem most likely - Biden wins by a clear margin both EC and popular vote.

JHB

(37,160 posts)
5. What sort of things would need to they game out in the most-likely scenario?
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 09:57 AM
Jul 2020

How big a restraint chair they'd need to haul his ass out of the White House? Safeguards against him fleeing to Russia? Ignoring his orders more than usual?

It just seems like they didn't game that scenario out because there are no uncertainties: Biden becomes president on Jan. 20.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,619 posts)
11. The article says they did consider that scenario, it just doesn't discuss the results
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 11:41 AM
Jul 2020

Not as titillating copy as the scorched earth scenario.

Girard442

(6,075 posts)
2. If the Secret Service, the Capital Police, and the military remain loyal to the Constitution...
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 09:49 AM
Jul 2020

...we're OK. Yeah, there could be trouble in the streets and that would be unfortunate, but not an existential crisis.

The real problem would be when major factions in law enforcement and the military back him. Then we'd be screwed. There has to be an ongoing effort by all Americans to reach out to head off any sympathizer movements.

FakeNoose

(32,641 posts)
3. Chump cannot organize a military coup
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 09:51 AM
Jul 2020

... because the US military hates his guts. They can't wait to see him gone.

empedocles

(15,751 posts)
4. Hope you can snip more. My question would be whether poll results over time
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 09:54 AM
Jul 2020

were factored in. That would influence how republicon Senate would see things pre-election, and post-election.

superpatriotman

(6,249 posts)
6. The Constitution needs a serious rehab
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 09:58 AM
Jul 2020

No government executive should have the unchecked powers afforded the office of President

Tear this fucker down and start over.

CTyankee

(63,912 posts)
8. OMG. This is just startling, altho entirely believable.
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 10:56 AM
Jul 2020

If they are correct in their final assessment, we are in more trouble than I imagined. The free press will be the heroes emerging from this dysphobic time. I had no idea our system of government could be so frayed when facing such brute force opposition. It is a nightmare and I fear, as I never before feared, for my country.

LiberalArkie

(15,716 posts)
9. This is the expansion of "The Tenth Man Rule" line of thinking.
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 11:12 AM
Jul 2020

!0 people are put together with war game scenario. If most of them come out with the same outcome, the 10th person has to take the opposing point of view and defend it.

CTyankee

(63,912 posts)
10. I get that but this is a nightmare gamed out by people who have been in the government and
Sun Jul 26, 2020, 11:18 AM
Jul 2020

know how the levers of power can be manipulated. All the more frightening.

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