if not offset by an overdue significant drop in the DJIA, et al.

The virus is out of control and still there is no national policy to control it. Those death figures aren't going away, just as the virus isn't. 40 million jobs did go away though and most aren't coming back anytime soon.

Meanwhile the repugs are going on August recess soon without approving a continuation of the $600-a-week unemployment benefit for the millions of jobless workers.

And wait until schools re-open and then close again. My money is on Biden.

it still would never make up for everything he has done already.

inept screw-up like trump. That would be the end of the republic and usher in full-blown fascism.

Yes, the death rate might drop, it almost has to as people get it through their thick skulls that they have to wear masks. But the enormous loss will still be with us and people who blame Trump for that are not going to stop blaming him.

is going to make us safe and return life to something approaching normal before some time in 2021. IF that's accomplished. The economy and supplies of essential workers are going to be badly affected by children not being able to return to school. Everyone is going to be unhappy about that.

Itm, we'll get to watch/be in a badly handled hurricane season with incompetent federal leadership and far fewer volunteers. This weekend TX caught a break without large numbers having to evacuate to shelters, including Covid patients, but that won't continue.

Southern California's gotten a lot of rain, but northern CA and parts of several other states are parched, and as it happens wildfires are already picking and and expected to continue for the next few months. Covid plus respiratory problems from the smoke blanketing whole regions, and of course all that'll come with hasty evacuations and newly homeless people...

And not to forget mentioning, Covid's SECOND WAVE coinciding with flu season.

That's just what popped to mind, because of course there's so much more. I don't think we need fear the Republicans somehow getting their act and our together and looking much better.

It's Nate's job to assign a probability.

If Tyson Fury fought the 100th rated boxer in the nation there is not a 100% probability he wins. That's why there are oddsmakers,

... national TV and then have sex with the burnt corpse and Trump might have a better chance of winning swing states right now.

The LV / Low MOE polls are starting to still show Red Don getting his ass kicked in damn near every one of them ... BAD, this is not 2016

But to proffer a 100% turnaround in CV19 and the economy and race relations would mean people would forget his shittiness that created those messes and give him a fighting chance come November means a huge failure in more areas than just humans short term memory.

I'm still pissed of at Nate Et al for not explaining how in the hell they got so many state level races in 2016 wrong at so many levels to give Red Don ALL the swing states that are withing MOE.

While I cannot imagine that we would vote to re-elect Donald Trump, I also can't imagine that it's going to be a walk in the park for Joe - there's just too much damn time between now and election day.

Very few participants in a competitive event have a 100% chance of losing or winning.

That was a while back though.

give the family back their home they lost because they lost their jobs. It won’t reopen all the small businesses that didn’t survive.

You are on drugs if you think that is going to happen.

Like other media, he gets more attention when there's a competitive race.
Accusing of nothing, other than a bias toward his own interests.

Sealed is not a probability.

But, if the models shows 6 to 20 margins and a 20 to 120 gap in the EV, I think his own interests are served by concentrating on the low end.
Then his win probability doesn't hit 80 or 90 and there's something to discuss.
It is a fact that a statistical prognosticator is less relevant when the math says 90%, because coomon sense converges with the math. He knows that, too.

I have an MS in statistics, slick!
I know the exact same math as Silver.
He's not a robot. He is influenced by self-interest, like nearly everybody alive.
Keep your insults to yourself. Don't be a punk!

He said a breakthrough in the vaccine race or if the coronavirus improves by the fall that helps Trump which I doubt it. In 2016 he would mention trade, infrastructure, etc, now all he has left is white nationalism.

Nate Silver also wrote this article which is full of assumptions & generalizations.

Why Harris And O’Rourke May Have More Upside Than Sanders And Biden

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-kamala-and-beto-have-more-upside-than-joe-and-bernie/

He does cite the basis of his analysis, which seems rooted in data, even if he does not cite it directly.

I think he's right... Trump's in trouble, but there are still 100 days....

I didn't say it biases his math.
I think it biases the things he wishes to discuss.
It would boring to talk about a prediction that's 99% sure of being right. Say it once, discussion over.
But, if he talks about the edges of the model and the numbers get near 50:50, the discussion continues.
His math is what it is. The points of focus in the conversation is malleable.

You seems to be implying he is playing up the "horse race" because it is in his financial interests to do so.

I'm not saying it's not, and I'm not saying it's not wise to be aware of biases, but your post came off as dismissive, whether or not you intended it to.

Trump does not have the skills to turn it around. However, external events can cause changes. They are too numerous to mention, but it does suggest that the Biden campaign must be careful and disciplined. They must not cause or BE the event, and they need to be ready to respond to events in real time.

... this situation.

Of which Trump has none

The GOP is playing for keeps & they have been playing the long game, but COVID has thrown them a curve ball. They will disenfranchise and cheat like never before, but turnout will be like never before, too. This is going to be the most chaotic, nasty election ever. The Con will make sure of that.

like a televangelist blames an audience's lack of faith for failing to get a paraplegic up from his wheelchair.

taking a time machine back to the summer of 2016.

But I have heard from many leading doctors, scientists that we are heading into a major closedown by Oct.

I saw a focus group of voters on television and one lady said Trump would have 'handlers' in the White House as justification for voting for him. In other words yes Trump is not up for the job, but he will have 'handlers'.

The tortured logic in my opinion is just a cover for their deep hatred of the 'other'. The 'other' being who are not the same skin color as them, that don't speak the same language or do not believe the same things they do.

I have lived here for 3 yrs so didn't see first election here. So far all signs for my 2 mile dog walk are for Trump except one that has two signs with a circle and line thru it. They fly rainbow flag so didn't surprise me.

I am not trusting the polls as people know how awful he is and don't want to admit they will still vote for their party.

I try to think how bad would a dem have to be for me to vote against my party. Because you vote for the whole agenda and they love the tax cuts, getting rid of abortion, cracking down on immigrants, etc.

I vote for healthcare, the environment, helping people less fortunate, lots of things so if I thought a really bad pres would still give the party those I probably would vote for them.

So, that makes me think we just won't know till Nov especially with the new federal agents out and messing with post office, and thats not even talking about all the other ways like having only one polling place in dem areas, they will do.

... the reason we're in the situation we're in right now is because of Trump and there are slews of countries that didn't have to shut their economies down to beat CV19.

I'm disgusted at Nates lack of memory or the notion the US media would allow Americans to forget Trumps dereliction of duty in January

I think that's what Nate is saying. Trump is so chaotic and opinionated that there are guaranteed to be numerous huge events and stories between now and November. Shifts both ways. Unlike past presidents you can't identify one story and assign permanence.

Coronavirus should be the exception and has been the exception. Those commercials are going to be devastating, when they show Trump calling it a hoax and 15 down to zero, etc. If a Democratic president had said that type of thing Republicans would be using it non-stop, even as the death toll mounts. We have stayed away from it but at some point the gloves have to come off.

Trump's only advantage is the electoral college, and it's a far greater advantage than many are willing to acknowledge. He really only has to flip Wisconsin and Florida, then take his chances on normalcy elsewhere. States like Texas, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina are far less likely for Biden than polling suggests. Statewide presidential results are totally dictated by ideology, whether anyone wants to accept it or not. For example, the Democrat is 59-0 since 2004 in states exit polling 32% conservatives or fewer. The Republican is 55-0 since 2004 in states exit polling 38% conservatives or higher. Only states between 33% and 37% have been in play. The Democrat is a modest 26-21 in those states. We took Michigan and Wisconsin for granted in 2016 despite both at 35% conservatives in 2012. It is a classic example of what I have always insisted, that it is moronic to rely on preference polling alone. If Hillary had polled ideology alone she would have been campaigning in the proper states while ignoring the stupid ones like North Carolina and its 43% conservatives.

Texas was 44% conservatives in 2016. Georgia was 41%. Arizona was 41%. North Carolina was 43%. As I mentioned, no Democrat recently has won any state recording 38% or above in those categories. Those states would have to plunge in percentage of self-identified conservatives merely for Biden to have a change to win them by narrowest margin, like Obama pulling out Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 by less than 45,000 votes total.

There is no such thing as a Biden lead by 2+ points in any of those states. That can be laughed out of the room right now.

Especially with shifting demographics & more young voters. Arizona is not a pro Trump state, he is losing the suburbs in Arizona according to polling & with that he loses Maricopa County and without Maricopa County he has no chance of winning the state. In another 4 years Arizona will be even more blue and so on. We have conservatives here but most of them aren't Trump-like nationalists.

McSally is also losing bad in the polls.

Not sure about the other states but I do know Arizona.

Republicans are losing ground in the suburbs badly and he can't win the state without the suburbs.

Biden may lead there, for the variables you mentioned. The demographics are changing so dramatically that the percentage of self-identified liberals soared from 19% in 2012 to 27% in 2016. I believe that is the largest one-cycle jump since I started following this in 1992. I'd have to check. I think California rose 7% in one cycle.

Given older voters such a high percentage in Arizona there will be Trump losses from 2016 due to Silent Generation mortality. That's another factor in Biden's favor.

However, Arizona is 15% Hispanics. As I've emphasized for years, Hispanics have unusual loyalty to a presidential incumbent, no matter if it makes any sense at all in regard to issues. The 2020 Democratic nominee was always going to fare strangely poorly with Hispanics, regardless who that nominee was. I've posted that here and elsewhere countless times since 2016. I've had to laugh recently when one analyst after another is scrambling to explain Biden's comparatively poor percentages with Hispanics. It is another classic case of being oblivious to the big picture while desperately needing thousands of variables within consideration instead of relying on one significant variable.

I'm not sure how the polls are treating Hispanics state to state. If they are assigning typical percentage to a Democrat it will be too high.

Same thing in Nevada with 18% Hispanics in the electorate. If there is any state were are in danger of taking for granted it is Nevada. There are key two factors there: No ideological advantage at all...36% conservatives to 25% liberals in 2016. And with so many Hispanics in the electorate there figures to be a shift to Trump that we may not anticipate. Nevada should be treated as close to a 50/50 state in 2020 but I'm convinced we are overconfident like midwest 2016.

Insufficiently tested, unready for mass production, but tailor-made for a snake-oil salesman to monetize and hawk endlessly.

Needless to say, not Dr. Fauci’s fault.

Simultaneously, he just continues to create chaos in major cities governed by Democrats. Continues to tell his cultists these are hell-holes of violence he needs to put down with force.

“Only I can fix it.”

Last edited Sun Jul 26, 2020, 03:28 PM - Edit history (1)

we are in a marathon, not a sprint

public opinion turns against the demonstrations. It doesn't take much of a shift of opinion to shift the polls a few points.

Plus they protested measures intended to keep us safe.

I'm saying it is possible (if unlikely), that the protesters take Trumps bait and come off as violent. After some period of time, sympathy could decline among some segment of the population.

I think it isn't over. And a shift in opinion could happen. We'll see.

I wasn't clear. I mean the Republican side already made themselves look bad with protests. Trump's response to the protests are backfiring so far. Coronavirus & his response to the protests are two key reasons why he is sliding.

I read in Portland the situation is there is BLM protests from the day into the night and once they leave another group takes over the streets with firecrackers and stuff.

----

He said the flash bangs and tear gas explosions ramp up overnight, making it tough to sleep.

“Some nights, you’ll hear a flash bang here and there, maybe half a dozen. Other nights you’ll hear like 20 of them in a row,” Parkman said.

Parkman said he isn’t alone, as others in his building search for attorneys to help them get out of their leases. Parkman supports the protest and the purpose, however, his problem is with the group that comes to cause destruction and chaos every night after midnight.

https://katu.com/news/local/amid-55-nights-of-unrest-downtown-portland-residents-want-answers

There will probably be violence or clashes with police but hopefully most people realize most of the protesters are peaceful.

I know a lot of center-right people. Right now they deplore police violence and are bothered by Trump's authoritarianism. But they are also bothered "riots." It think it's possible that opinions can shift if things go poorly.

The MSM will definitely do all they can to get "tightening" in the polls. They'll dwell on any Biden flaw and start talking about how the POTUS can make a comeback.

Even if there is a vaccine before Nov, no one is forgetting how disorganized and incompetent Trump and his administration have been. Plenty of people are still going to be unemployed or underemployed. They're going to remember who caused their economic pain.

This is not 2016 where Trump was looked at as a "successful businessman" and many people despised Hillary and refused to vote for her. There were plenty of voters willing to give Trump a try. Many of these "Trump try-ers" now have buyers remorse. That's why you see self-reported party affiliation in olls shifting away from R to Indy and Dem.

for Trump. Look them in the eyes and say the following to those people;

“Given what you have seen and experiences in the years of a Trump presidency, do you want four more years of that? You should have seen by now that he can’t or won’t change”.

That's going to be a challenge, especially with a massive Republican effort to interfere with our abilities to GOTV. I'm looking for Trump to attack the USPS to disrupt voting by mail. Trump's a terrible POTUS, but I fear its about much more than his horrible record for us to win this election. The key is being ready for the cheating. If we can do that and assure we get all our mail-in votes to the ballot box, we should be okay. But I'm nervous about that part.