It had Biden up by 13 in Florida.

I am concerned (yeah, I know) that Trump's new found 'tone' will convince people that he isn't the incompetent monster that they thought he was, and that they would come home so to speak.

Figured the race would tighten, just didn't think it would happen this soon.

I think Biden by about 8 is pretty reasonable
for Florda.

An eight point win in FL would be consistent with a nine point national lead. If Joe can win by nine he likely wins WI, PA, MI, FL. GA, NC, and AZ. IA, OH, and TX would be in play.

it was Quinnipiac i believe. The only number that matters, really, is Joe's vote share. Both cnn and Q have him at 51. If that holds, election over. We're all aware he isn't winning Florida by 12 points. That 51 means trumpty has to convince people to come back, not just convert undecideds.

Look at the averages, the trend, and the vote share. 50+1 all that matters.

I think Quinnipiac has Joe at 13% in FL. Biden is ahead in AZ. The latter state hasn't gone D in a Presidential Election since 1996.

We all know these are relatively meaningless, but they do strongly suggest a trend: Biden would win if the election were today.

However, the election is not today, so that's why they are ultimately meaningless: WE'VE GOT TO GOTV!

Both are red states that went for Trump in 2016.

This is going to be a tough, close election.

It would be foolish to count Trump out at this point.

As for what’s wrong with people in Florida and Arizona – the same thing that’s wrong with people in Oklahoma, Alabama, and South Carolina.

Poll questions can elicit certain responses.

I never trust polls.

7% went for "Other" in 2016. That's a lot for 3rd party candidates.

Trump only won in 2016 by 1.2%, so Joe being up by 4 is good news.

Plus, pollsters move from registered voters to likely voters.

We have to assume the race will tighten and work to make sure everyone votes.

.... reclaim those 3 states and Florida and Arizona won't matter.

Add to that the potential to steal Texas, Georgia and Ohio,

This should be a blowout.

WTF is wrong with this country?

...(including some who now count themselves as NeverTrumpers), RW websites, Facebook, email-forwarding chains, evangelical religious radio stations, etc.

A lot of people have been addicted to bile for a long, long time, and Trump is one terrific supplier.

Or, stop fixating on every individual poll...

I'd like to see a poll about how many Americans think we'll make it to the election. The Presidential polls are pathetic. With what's gone on in this country, apparently many Americans change their mind every other day.

I have no idea why so many are unwilling to accept that. Only a small percentage are up for grabs, although it's considerably higher than someone like Rachel Bitecofer insists.

If you plug in the conservative percentages and allow 15% of them to Biden, then plug in the liberal percentages and assign 10% to Trump, then adjust the moderate percentage in relation to how independents view the race, you have the logical range.

And once you do that it is simple to laugh at all the silly polls like Biden by 13 in Florida, or the occasional poll that has Trump ahead in some midwestern state, etc.

hands. Trump is going to lose in places we have not won in decades. Mark my words.

10 or 12 % in Mi, Wi, and Pa which is all we need.