That's my only concern on our side. Those two states fall smack within the same danger zone as Michigan and Wisconsin 2016. We took those states for granted despite 35% conservatives in each state in 2012. Now we're seemingly overconfident about Nevada and Colorado despite 36% and 35% conservatives in those states during 2016.
I don't think Biden will lose those states but we can't be stupid enough not to recognize how fragile the margin is when states have that type of electorate. Preference polls mean squat. This will be more true going forward than in 2020 with the national slant in our favor.
In regard to pickups, here's the way I like to look at things. Among the states we lost in 2016, these states have the highest percentages of liberals. I would look for opportunities in states like this. Places like Tennessee simply aren't going to happen:
* Michigan 27%
* Pennsylvania 27%
* Arizona 27%
* Florida 25%
* Wisconsin 25%
* Iowa 23%
* Indiana 22%
* North Carolina 22%
* Georgia 22%
Indiana is a little bit underestimated, if I had to specify one state. Not necessarily for Biden winning there but maybe some hidden race. That state had only a 16% gap (38-22) between conservatives and liberals in 2016. It was tighter in that regard than Ohio or North Carolina or Texas or Georgia. Indiana demonstrated in 2008 that it could shift dramatically in a favorable climate for Democrats and anti-Republicans. The conservatives plunged from 42% in 2004 to 36% in 2008. Now we're in the same type of territory and Indiana starts out at 38% in 2016 instead of 42% from 2004.
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