rump's ass to the sidewalk and out of the WH.

Texas IS in play!

one area I fault Clinton campaign on is getting cute and spending time/dollars to go for grand slam rather than laying down sacrifice bunt to drive the winning run home.


Stay focused on core states that are toss up and attack the red-leaning states like Georgia, Florida and North Carolina

We have limited resources especially when faced with an opponent with superior fundraising ability thanks to calling in favors for his handouts to the top 1%.
So we would be better off spending our money in states like the midwest where our money can go further and it is an easier path to 270.

Texas is more than a cash register for donations and if you run a strong campaign here, then it may result in the Texas House flipping to blue and affecting redistricting for the next decade. The Democratic candidates for U.S. House also have raised more money than their GOP counterparts. PLEASE make the effort to help get Democrats elected in Texas. This isn't the time to throw in the towelie.

While money spent there could/would make a difference locally, it would be a LOT to spend to hit those “22 ______ media markets,” and Biden does have to think nationally. Many factors caused Hillary’s (electoral college) loss but I think one of them was the effort put into trying to win “extra” states like AZ instead of locking down places like WI.

But dang, would flipping the state house in TX be awesome, and boy-oh-boy would controlling redistricting there be sweet. That could be 10 years of +10 or more House seats just by switching from the (r) favoring districting to a (d) favoring districting.

I think it is ridiculous to claim otherwise.

Arizona was clearly a battleground state in 2016, according to all of the polls. She was right to campaign there.

And Hillary spent more money in Wisconsin in 2016 than Obama did in 2012. She also had a larger ground operation. She didn't hold rallies there, because instead she decided to hold her rallies in states that we close in the polls, instead of going to a place where she was way up.

The fact that she even lost in Wisconsin, where she had been so strong just a few weeks before the election, shows that what Comey did completely turned the race upside down.

Even in traditionally blue areas, Hillary signs were outnumbered by “We Back the Badge” signs and those were always equivalent to Trump signs.

If her AZ love had been WI love, it could have been different. Even after Comey she only needed a little little bit here. A tiny tiny push would have made the difference. But that’s 2016. Can’t do much about that now, and there were a million little things that could have changed that could have won it for Hillary even after the Comey interference. The lesson of 2016 was to take no state for granted, no matter how well you think you’re doing there.

But that’s another darn good reason for Biden to ignore TX. We don’t know if there’ll be a Comey surprise. I expect a Barr bombshell, so better to double up and super-lock the states you need to win and ignore the gravy/icing states like TX.

No matter how nice it would be to flip anything in TX it’s so much more important for Joe to win nationally that there’s no excuse to waste money there in case there’s a Comey surprise again.

I was torn about TX, but you’re right. It’s just a risk that can not afford to be taken. Dang it.

Not that winning Wisconsin would have won us the election. That is actually why she didn't campaign there--because she wasn't taking victory for granted, so she fought hard for states that looked closer.

Had Comey not pulled his stunt she would have beaten Trump decisively. Had he not held his July press conference she would have won by a very wide margin. And had he not opened his ridiculous investigation to begin with, it would have been an epic blowout.

James Comey and his antics completely redefined Hillary Clinton as a public servant and as a human being.

As for Texas, I wasn't one of the people saying we shouldn't campaign there. I think Biden should make some efforts, although the expense of the Texas media markets will no doubt limit those efforts. But I do see Biden winning there, along with Georgia, Ohio and Iowa.

Biden is going to have an epic blowout IMO because there is no James Comey this time, and as a man he is not easy to swift boat due to the absence of sexism. You are right about William Barr planning a stunt, but I don't think people will take him seriously, because at this point he is a proven fraud and a proven fascist.

There will be a Comey-style attack.

So, as you point out, all resources need to go to states Biden needs to win...and he doesn’t need Texas to win. There’s no safe margin anywhere, as you point out, when a Comey-style attack is possible. Therefore believing any state is safe and doing anything less than maximum effort, even in “safe” states is a dereliction of duty. Wasting tremendous effort in dont-need states like Texas (and with 22 media markets, it is tremendous resource drain) is irresponsible at best, sabotage at worst, if what you say about Comey is true.

The race was close enough that any of a hundred different reasons can be blamed for HRC's loss. James Comey cost her votes, sure, but so did many other decisions and factors.

The simple fact is that the race should never have been close enough in the first place that the voters who were swayed by Comey's nonsense were enough to turn it. I think HRC ran a relatively weak campaign by allowing her messaging to be middle-of-the-road and focus-group approved instead of touting her progressive bonafides. Someone advising her really fucked that up.

I don't believe James Comey cost her a bunch of votes, along with several other factors. I believe he was more relevant to the outcome than all other factors put together. Without his misconduct she would have won handily.

I don't see HRC's campaign as being deserving of all the hate that people have given it. I don't think it was fairly compared to the campaigns of Mike Dukakis or George McGovern, which have long been prominent examples of a terrible campaigns. I think Hillary's was much better, but there was an insatiable desire to label her a terrible candidate so people processed information in a way that allowed them to do that.

Spend money on ads (they already are) campaign here. Use their resources here. We're not a safe state this cycle. Down tickets benefit when a state is in play. Exploit the hell out of it.

This fool "advisor" needs their pie hole stuffed shut. Nothing good comes from this sort of asinine advice.

Oh, and just so you know, despite my pep talk here, I'm deeply pissed off by this stupid person attempting to deflate sails in a state the GOP currently has to spend money to defend. It's just stupid on all fronts. They should be fired.

However, an admonishment appears warranted. No matter what poll is being examined, it's a close race so providing an indication of apathy is an error.

I've been working so hard here, and I admit a local (state level) campaign I"m involved with is exploiting the tight national race, as they should. This was foolish and it hit close to home. My overreaction most definitely doesn't help.

So good to see you! I deeply hope all is well with you?

I'm providing administrative and technical support for my brother's job along with housekeeping duties. The last few months have also presented a myriad of health problems including an ulcer on my foot that isn't healing. I'm trying hard to stay healthy, but I can see that my future likely will hold decreased mobility and possibly amputations in the next few years.

I wish that I had a greater opportunity to get involved in the political campaigns, but it would likely create tension since my brother is a brainwashed Fox News viewer. I've told him that if he wants my assistance during the evening hours then he has to either change the channel or that I won't sit down to work until after the prime-time shows (Carlson, Hannity, Ingraham) are over. I refuse to work in a hostile work environment and the prime-time Fox News shows definitely fit that bill.

Do you have a good wound healing specialist? There's a lot they can do now with such issues. Search out a competent specialist, one ulcer isn't end game, ok? I had a thing 5 years ago and I kicked it in the booty finally. I still have to watch out, but I'm still doing alright. Still mobile and all my digits are still attached. Even my pesky pinky toe they were sure wouldn't survive.

I've always envied your patience with your brother. I'm not as good with negotiations with my family. You're so kind and even tempered. I need to be more like you, but it is so hard. Especially these days.

We all do what we can in our capacity, and that varies. Honestly, working with a campaign this year is vastly different than before. Most everything is remote, no canvassing and very little in person interaction. Mostly phone and Internet work and a bit of Zoom. It's weird.

I do have a podiatrist who has recommended surgery to remove some bone from my foot since it is causing the ulcer to tunnel underneath the callus and pushing out to the side of my foot. However, I'm waiting for authorization and also having to contend with the governor's order about elective surgery. The hole in my foot is about the size of a penny, but if the problem persists then I will lose all of the callus and have an open wound of about 1.5 inches close to the two small toes. I've seen the podiatrist four times within the past three months to get skin shaved off and at least the area isn't purple like it was when I had my first treatment. At least I was finally able to find a gallon size bottle of isopropyl alcohol so that I can disinfect the wound.

As far as the family is concerned, I have a mixed bag and nearly all of them try to order me around since I am the youngest in the group.

Oldest sister - paranoid Trump supporter with a chip on her shoulder who visits sites like Stormfront, she still hasn't gotten over the fact that my parents had additional children
Middle sister - probably votes Republican since that's what her husband tells her to do, but she is reasonable
Youngest sister - she is liberal, in some areas I'm more liberal while in other areas she is to the left of me
Brother - a deplorable

I really don't have much patience any more with my oldest sister or my brother. If I wasn't in a difficult financial situation I probably wouldn't interact with either of them. The two sisters that are more reasonable live outside of Texas and I haven't seen them in eight years when my father passed away.

narrowly won last time. And that will be enough to put Joe over the top without Texas. Of course it would still be nice to win Texas.

Just considering possibilities, as he says this the same day polls show Biden +2 in TX.

I'm working as hard as I can down here.

When we go blue we'll have done it on our own, just like we have been for the last 20 years.

I feel Texas could happen

They'll like us if we can consistently produce poll numbers showing a close race here. The Biden campaign has to work with limited resources.

But putting Texas in play, even if we lose here, is still smart because it will tie up Republican resources trying to defend this state. Every dollar they spend here is it dollar they don't spend trying to flip Colorado or Wisconsin

A net gain of 6% since 2016 for a statewide democrat. If anything, things have gotten better for us since 2018. It is silly to write it off.

Either your in this fight prepared to rip out the other side’s throat with your teeth, or your making up excuses for losing when the other side rips out yours.

Most of the over polite, let’s be friends & colleagues BS comes from the older crowd (see Steny Hoyer)

the fear of texas going blue at state and national level is pretty much the end of the GOP in future national elections

but you don't have to in order to win the state. You have to win big in Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, the RGV. Maybe put the other college towns in play.

Never say never and I never heard of this website...opinion.

And it’s expensive to run a campaign there. Unless Biden has so much money that he has money to waste I don’t disagree with this strategy. Even winning Georgia would be a big deal and would say that the Republicans can’t take the Solid South for granted.

And that is to make the Trump campaign waste resources to defend it.

And we really, really should have recounted, especially with Ted being Cambridge Analytica's 2nd biggest client.

Sort of like Deplorables. Texas is an expensive market. I have seen more trump signs and flags driving through rural and small town Texas than Bush/Cheney or Bush/Quayle (yes I'm that old). The last successful statewide candidate I worked for was Ann Richards. I don't agree with abandoning Texas, but I would prioritize $$$$ on Arizona/Ohio/North Carolina and maybe even Georgia above Texas. I want to win in 2020. I give a little to Powered by People and worked for Beto at my local Democratic Club, but reality is reality. I give the vast majority of my Texas $$$ to Democrats and organizations outside of my state that have a better chance of making a difference in the Presidential/Senate races in 2020. We do have a shot at flipping the state house in Texas so I give a little and volunteer with Powered by People. However, I have given a lot more money to the Wisconsin Democratic Party and have written letters for Swing Left to other swing states. Hopefully that can change in another decade or so.

I called it months ago. Most Texas Republicans are Bush people, and they despise Trump.

Trump does scream “New York City!” And the Bush’s hate him. Maybe their faux-Texas legacy will finally do some good. He may have been all-hat, no-cattle, but Texas loved his hat and he sure did put the time in to maintain and polish that image and hide the Connecticut roots.

Texas is in play. It's a long shot, but not impossible.

It's demoralizing to Democrats on the ground fighting against the odds to win Texas, and it's surely inspiring to the MAGA crowd to see Democrats waving white flags. There is a value in making Republicans spend resources in a red state they expect to win handily, and there is absolutely NO upside in making such a "we give up" statement, especially when you know there are down ballot candidates who need all hands on deck to get every possible vote.

Phone banks (nobody answers their phone). Most don't answer their doorbells if they don't know the identity

I bet the average person sees multiple times more political ads on the internet than TV

I think get out the vote operations can be effective but you gain information used to turn out the vote in new ways

I'm not so sure political campaign donations are as effectively used as decades ago otherwise Clinton would have easily won

That could be used in Texas.

But he lied about that, didn’t he.

Google it

Probably 9+. I realize that's the current polling but it is extremely unlikely to play out that way. This advisor is simply being realistic.

It is always unwise to rely on outliers. When somebody cites an outlier, like earlier in this thread with Obama winning Indiana, they are actually reinforcing the other guy's point, not their own.

Texas was 44% conservatives and 20% liberals in 2016. There is no historical precedent for a shift of that type within one cycle. It requires anything and everything to break in one direction only.

I don't want to be a downer, but IMO Texas is not that likely to go blue just yet. Sure, anything can happen, and we have some history with electiing liberals like Ann Richards and Barbara Jordan, but those are more the exception than the rule - especially in recent decades.

I thought we had a shot at defeating Abbott when Wendy Davis was flying high, but her campaign kind of sputtered, and white women voted considerably more for Abbott - so that was disheartening. White Texas women decided to vote against their self-interest when the choice couldn't be more stark. What will keep them from failing us again?

Texas isn't so much Red as apathetic. Voter turnout here is near the national bottom. Republicans ALWAYS turn out, so that's why they have power disporproportionate to their numbers. I don't see overwhelming evidence we have fixed that. Primary turnout was encouraging but how it will play in the general is anyone's guess.

I'd love to see Biden spend lots of resources here, if for no other reason than to force the GOP to divert money and effort - but only if Biden has the resources. If not, then I have to sadly agree that maybe Texas is not the best place to spend scarce resources that could be more strategically deployed elsewhere.

Bottom Line - For me it comes to this: IF we all donate enough for Biden to have spare resources, then Texas is definitely a good investment. But if we don't and campaign resources are scarce, then Texas may not be the best investment for the potential return.

Have faith. We're working on all of this mess down here, and Trump or making it easier.

Trending Blue: Texas Shatters Record For Turnout In Democratic Runoff

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/07/15/trending-blue-texas-shatters-record-for-turnout-in-democratic-runoff/#2939f4641fb5

It’s gonna be real close, but I think Biden will win the state.

Going toe to toe with the GOP in Texas may not be a good investment when you have other states you can easily win and drain the coffers of the GOP while doing so.

But....if the GOP doesn't fight for it....it makes it a shit load easier to take.

You would think the GOP wouldn't fall for it...but with Jared running things....well, they just might.

undermining our elections for years. We need election security, protection from shenanigans with regard to working voting machines, and a paper trail, among other things.

We Democrats here have been calling for Biden (back when asked by the campaign) and opening our wallets regularly for the hopes of being taken seriously, finally.

I've been working with statewide organizations getting specific people signed up to vote, and as an aside getting people to fill out their census. Where we need them to the most.

This makes me sad to see. Take us seriously down here. We've been working our asses off and poll above Georgia. See me. Hear me. Pretend I matter, at the very least. Don't squash me as 'too hard' I'll ring your ears with decades of hard work to flip this state. You've no concept of hard work. We Texas Democrats have been the poster child for 'too hard' but keep eating that elephant one bite at a time.

This "advisor" needs to be seeking a new job. He's a fool for saying this at this point in the race.

Texas is not needed to win. That money could be better spent elsewhere like AZ, GA, WI, MI and PA.

But, keeping them (the GOP) defending Texas (unprecedented in modern times) leeches GOP resources. It also helps our local down ticket races. Give us a break down here. We need the tiniest of boosts.

We need to start looking at this like the GOP has since the early 80's. The big wins start in the lower races. The more we can take, the better down the road. Literally, this is how they became the power they are today. They played the game of lower seats much better than we have.

They simply cannot afford to lose it. Biden spending or not spending resources there won't matter. Trump is in a freefall and will have to spend money to shore up states that would have been his easily.

GA AZ NC FL OH WI.

Horrible optics in this "advisors" message.