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Nevilledog

(51,156 posts) Tue Aug 4, 2020, 09:09 PM Aug 2020

Trump Doesn't Need the Most Votes. What if He Doesn't Even Want Them?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/opinion/trump-2020-electoral-college.html

Nearly everyone involved in reporting on, analyzing or forecasting the upcoming presidential election agrees that Donald Trump could win another term in office. But no one save his most dedicated sycophants thinks he could do so with a majority of the public on his side. We have accepted, as a matter of course, that Trump could be constitutionally re-elected through the Electoral College, but not democratically selected by the voting public.

That’s how he won in 2016, and the reason is straightforward. Enough of the president’s base is concentrated in swing states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Because of that fact, he can lose by as many as five million votes and still win an Electoral College majority.

As much as this contradicts our democratic expectations, you can imagine a scenario where, aware of his minority position, Trump governed with an eye toward consensus and popular legitimacy. The Electoral College misfire would have been a problem, but not a dangerous one. Instead, President Trump and his allies embraced this plainly anti-democratic feature of our political system to liberate themselves from majoritarian politics and coalition building. It’s not just that they can win with a plurality, but that they intend to, with no interest in persuading the majority of American voters and no concern for the consequences of that choice.

It was clear from the start of his administration that Trump saw his Electoral College advantage as license for an intentionally divisive style of politics, stoking anger and racial prejudice whenever it seemed politically advantageous. He bases key governing decisions on whether he won a state or group of states in the previous election. If the United States does not have a national strategy for the pandemic, it is at least in part because — as a report in Vanity Fair suggests — the administration originally believed the problem was restricted to “blue” states.

*snip*

6 replies

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Highlight:

Trump Doesn't Need the Most Votes. What if He Doesn't Even Want Them? (Original Post) Nevilledog Aug 2020 OP

I look donco Aug 2020 #1

Nothing in that article makes sense. BGBD Aug 2020 #2

+1000 smirkymonkey Aug 2020 #4

This might have been an interesting observation four years ago. Now, it's just, "no shit" unblock Aug 2020 #3

ooga booga!! SiliconValley_Dem Aug 2020 #5

For the millionth time, Trump doesn't act strategically... brooklynite Aug 2020 #6

donco

(1,548 posts)

1. I look

Reply to Nevilledog (Original post)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 09:13 PM

Aug 2020

for tRump to resign before the election.

BGBD

(3,282 posts)

2. Nothing in that article makes sense.

Reply to Nevilledog (Original post)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 09:28 PM

Aug 2020

Winning with a plurality would still mean getting the most votes.

Look, Trumps administration has tried to expand his voting base, but he keeps getting in their way. They aren't doing this because they want to, it's just the only option they have.

The problem with trying to repeat 2016 is that 2016 BARELY happened. He won the three states that tipped the election by paper-thin margins, less than 1% and much less in some cases. He can't lost any support from 2016 AND he can't allow Biden to gain ANY support from what Clinton had. Right now both things have happened.

Also, it's very unlikely that Trump can lose the popular vote by that much as still win. Bidens coalition looks to have an electoral advantage over Clintons. Read that as he does better among seniors and whites, which make up a lot of the electorate in those rustbelt states (and Florida/Arizona). So, with that coalition, Biden could problem get less votes total than Clinton, but more electoral college votes. He's not significantly underperforming anywhere from here either though, so I seriously doubt he gets less as a share (turnout will likely be up so total votes isn't apples to apples.)

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)

4. +1000

Reply to BGBD (Reply #2)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 09:36 PM

Aug 2020

unblock

(52,276 posts)

3. This might have been an interesting observation four years ago. Now, it's just, "no shit"

Reply to Nevilledog (Original post)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 09:35 PM

Aug 2020

He never gave a rat's behind about a majority or democracy. He wanted to win by hook or by crook. Any path to the Oval Office was fine with him, and still is.

Nor was he ever interested in representing America as a whole. He was always in it for himself, and to the extent he cared about giving anything to others, it was only if they were rich like him, white like him, male like him, etc. that's why, not once, did he ever even pretend to want to do anything for democrats or people of color, etc.

The only appeal he has is to the white male who mistakes any reduction of their privilege as oppression. And hopefully, that appeal is too limited now, even with all the voter suppression and ballot counting tricks they can pull.

SiliconValley_Dem

(1,656 posts)

5. ooga booga!!

Reply to Nevilledog (Original post)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 09:41 PM

Aug 2020

brooklynite

(94,641 posts)

6. For the millionth time, Trump doesn't act strategically...

Reply to Nevilledog (Original post)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 10:25 PM

Aug 2020

Nothing he does is in support of some broad, long-range plan. It's whatever he thinks will help him in the immediate moment.

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