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soothsayer

(38,601 posts)
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:27 AM Aug 2020

Professor Allan Lichtman announces that his model predicts a Trump loss in 2020


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Professor Allan Lichtman, whose presidential prediction model forecast a Trump win in 2016, announces that his model predicts a Trump loss in 2020:

https://t.co/3SArY67ng1?amp=1

He Predicted Trump’s Win in 2016. Now He’s Ready to Call 2020.
Most historians just study the past. But Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the future.

Snip

Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, however, was not. The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.

In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 “keys” to winning the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.




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Professor Allan Lichtman announces that his model predicts a Trump loss in 2020 (Original Post) soothsayer Aug 2020 OP
Meh Johnny2X2X Aug 2020 #1
Where's that chicken and octopus that predict elections? soothsayer Aug 2020 #2
Depends on when he made the predictions rpannier Aug 2020 #13
2000 he picked Gore Johnny2X2X Aug 2020 #15
Then he's fudging his numbers rpannier Aug 2020 #16
Yes Johnny2X2X Aug 2020 #17
Some of the greatest news I've heard all day Hip2bSquare Aug 2020 #3
I cling to any bit of good news these days! soothsayer Aug 2020 #4
My wife still laughs at me for accepting Sam Wang's prediction... NNadir Aug 2020 #5
Not just the votes GB_RN Aug 2020 #12
Any and all predictions peggysue2 Aug 2020 #6
Yup, it's never over until the fat lady sings. dhol82 Aug 2020 #7
It ain't the "fat lady" this time...It's "Trump the dump.." Stuart G Aug 2020 #8
Then we need to Dump the trump! calimary Aug 2020 #10
Lichtman also said in 2017 that tRump would have resigned or been convicted in impeachment by now.nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2020 #9
We still need to vote, but I'd say this is a good sign Dopers_Greed Aug 2020 #11
If the numbers stay where there are, or close to it, by the end of October, THEN i'll be confident. oldsoftie Aug 2020 #14
does it predict a big parade for Trump azureblue Aug 2020 #18

Johnny2X2X

(19,082 posts)
1. Meh
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:47 AM
Aug 2020

He makes some good points, but of the elections he correctly predicted, only 1 was an unlikely outcome.

rpannier

(24,330 posts)
13. Depends on when he made the predictions
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:26 PM
Aug 2020

1n 1988, during the summer most people were convinced Dukakis would pummel Bush
The shift towards Bush came after the Republican convention
Bush looked like he would lose 2000 (electoral college) in the final few weeks of the election. Faux spews ran story after story outraged that Bush would likely win the popular vote, but lose the electoral college and how awful and undemocratic it was

Johnny2X2X

(19,082 posts)
15. 2000 he picked Gore
Thu Aug 6, 2020, 08:06 AM
Aug 2020

This guy picked Gore in 2000 and claimed victory because Gore won the popular vote.

Johnny2X2X

(19,082 posts)
17. Yes
Thu Aug 6, 2020, 10:06 AM
Aug 2020

After Gore/Bush he switched to predicting the EV winner.

Like I said, there were only a couple cases where his predictions were all that impressive.

Hip2bSquare

(291 posts)
3. Some of the greatest news I've heard all day
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 02:30 PM
Aug 2020

Thank you for this post. I'm still skeptical but this is fantastic news.

I plan to take the Wednesday after election day off, because I'm praying I'll have had way too much champagne the night before.

Not sure who's familiar with The Wiz, but "Brand New Day" will be blasting from my speakers.

We still have a way to go... we can't let up... he MUST go.

NNadir

(33,533 posts)
5. My wife still laughs at me for accepting Sam Wang's prediction...
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 02:34 PM
Aug 2020

...of a Kerry landslide.

Comforting tea leaves are great but...

VOTES COUNT

GB_RN

(2,368 posts)
12. Not just the votes
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:45 PM
Aug 2020

It's also just as this (fake) Stalin quote goes, ""It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything."

We have to ensure that Dolt45 and his puppet master aren't rigging it.

peggysue2

(10,836 posts)
6. Any and all predictions
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 03:19 PM
Aug 2020

Depend on the voters getting out or mailing in their votes. Then the accurate counting of said votes.

So . . . I love the good news but we still have to act as if Biden were 10-15 pts behind and keep a watchful eye out for any high-jinks. Because there are 90 days until the election, an eternity in politics and certainly in the Age of Trumplandia.

Stuart G

(38,436 posts)
8. It ain't the "fat lady" this time...It's "Trump the dump.."
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 04:46 PM
Aug 2020

...Trump the dump stinks so bad...that even the garbage dump lovers don't want him

....Trump the dump has already sung a song...."It will be gone in 5 days"...other songs, too stupid to list.
Trump the dump has sung, and his show is going to be over Jan 21..Trump stinks and that is what the truth is.....Yes, you are correct.........VOTE!!!
.... Come November 3 at 9pm ET, the landslide will come true, even though some western states haven't closed their polls yet.

.........Yes a whole lot will vote, and Trump will lose by a whole lot.!!!....................

Dopers_Greed

(2,640 posts)
11. We still need to vote, but I'd say this is a good sign
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:31 PM
Aug 2020

Not infallible, but Lichtman has a an interesting prediction model that's as good as any.

oldsoftie

(12,577 posts)
14. If the numbers stay where there are, or close to it, by the end of October, THEN i'll be confident.
Thu Aug 6, 2020, 07:47 AM
Aug 2020

There are a TON of people who dont pay any attention to politics until the last few weeks.
And there are plenty of mistakes that CAN be made. Biden & his team just has to make sure those are kept to a minimum.

azureblue

(2,148 posts)
18. does it predict a big parade for Trump
Thu Aug 6, 2020, 10:27 AM
Aug 2020

as he is tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail? I would totally love to see The White House surrounded by thousands singing nah nah nah nah her good by, when he leaves

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