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artemisia1

(756 posts)
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 11:40 AM Aug 2020

I am nervous about the coming Presidential election and you should be too

I am nervous about the coming Presidential election and you should be too.

Trump on the offensive, odious as it may be, is a formidable opponent. It is more than theoretical that he could close the gap between now and November. Too many in the media and elsewhere are convinced, or nearly so, that he is very likely to lose when, in fact, he could pull the upset of the century.

He still retains significant incumbent advantages as well as a radical and fanatical base. Former VP Biden has a base, but it is NOT fanatical (ultimately a good thing, elections notwithstanding) and Trump, buffoon or not, is a clever fox in his own way and will have one dirty trick after another up his sleeves. He has a lifetime of practice.

Thoughts?

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/polling-imperfect-its-bad-news-trump

34 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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I am nervous about the coming Presidential election and you should be too (Original Post) artemisia1 Aug 2020 OP
Totally agree. redstatebluegirl Aug 2020 #1
Agreed. This keeps me up at night. Raven Aug 2020 #2
I will argue that he cannot legitimately close PoindexterOglethorpe Aug 2020 #3
Even if Trump has negative approval numbers I'm still concerned he'll from nuke a city or something uponit7771 Aug 2020 #4
He could STEAL the upset of the century. spanone Aug 2020 #5
And undermine the future of the US far beyond an election. n/t RKP5637 Aug 2020 #7
None can let their guard down with Trump. He is one dangerous MF'er and has lots of RKP5637 Aug 2020 #6
coaching by vlad is helping donnie RT Atlanta Aug 2020 #8
trump has to deal with comes out of his mouth. I KNOW no one at this point would ever switch from beachbumbob Aug 2020 #9
His mother was Scottish and he is canny. Not smart, but canny. Thirties Child Aug 2020 #10
I totally agree. nancy1942 Aug 2020 #11
No, I refuse to be a worrywart and worry constantly about rump this, rump that. I know w/ 100% SWBTATTReg Aug 2020 #12
yes! RT Atlanta Aug 2020 #14
Lighting a fire under the complacent is not "gloom and doom", it is a necessary correction artemisia1 Aug 2020 #24
BS. Getting tired of people who claim that we're "overconfident" etc., for what seems to be a ... SWBTATTReg Aug 2020 #26
We certainly were overconfident in 2016. That did us no good at all. LisaL Aug 2020 #28
We're not talking about 2016 here, although some seem to be stuck in that mode... SWBTATTReg Aug 2020 #29
2016. Remember that. Nobody said we were "all" overconfident. 'kay? /nt artemisia1 Aug 2020 #30
It's time for General Grant's famous quote again Shermann Aug 2020 #13
It's also not time to underestimate our enemy. /nt artemisia1 Aug 2020 #23
exactly. I say we sick Sherman on them SiliconValley_Dem Aug 2020 #34
Exactly what THEY want Lulu KC Aug 2020 #15
Worry is not paralyzing fear and it lights a fire under the complacent. /nt artemisia1 Aug 2020 #21
worry is a cancer SiliconValley_Dem Aug 2020 #33
Biden's "base" is everyone who is fanatically anti-Trump greenjar_01 Aug 2020 #16
im much more confident about this election than I was the last one in 2016... samnsara Aug 2020 #17
No, we shouldn't be nervous Sugarcoated Aug 2020 #18
I AM nervous AND I have my foot on the gas. Runningdawg Aug 2020 #19
It was always going to be a close election either way Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #20
But isn't Trump's shit show unprecedented? Sugarcoated Aug 2020 #25
i tgink your biew is a bit too pessimistic SiliconValley_Dem Aug 2020 #32
Your concern is noted. Demsrule86 Aug 2020 #22
Being nervous is actually good as far as I am concerned. LisaL Aug 2020 #27
i refuse to worry about it SiliconValley_Dem Aug 2020 #31

redstatebluegirl

(12,265 posts)
1. Totally agree.
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 11:44 AM
Aug 2020

There will be lots of trolls out there trying to divide our party between left and center, old and young, BS and Biden. We have to drag everyone out to vote. I am voting absentee as soon as the ballot arrives. My husband us driving people to the polls, our niece who is 24 is training to be a poll worker to replace me. Doing what we can as a family.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,855 posts)
3. I will argue that he cannot legitimately close
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 11:47 AM
Aug 2020

the voting gap between now and November. Although he can and will certainly try very hard to sow dissension and doubt far and wide to convince people that any outcome that does not have him winning by a landslide is somehow fake.

RKP5637

(67,108 posts)
6. None can let their guard down with Trump. He is one dangerous MF'er and has lots of
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 11:52 AM
Aug 2020

company with his companions and base. I never thought there were so many wackos and F'ed up people in the US and government 'till Trump came along.

RT Atlanta

(2,517 posts)
8. coaching by vlad is helping donnie
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 11:58 AM
Aug 2020

but, goddammit, i get being concerned because we all are, but the gist of this message is to what? rollover and take it? there are plenty of people in our country, us included on this forum, that are working hard to elect good representatives. we're also protesting in the streets.

identify the issue(s) and work the issues to solution - that's what we're doing. donnie's gonna cheat like hell - fuck him, Joe's gonna fight and run his own program and not spend the day chasing squirrels and hummingbirds and whatever else donnie is pointing to during each day's 'daily hate.'

 

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)
9. trump has to deal with comes out of his mouth. I KNOW no one at this point would ever switch from
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:02 PM
Aug 2020

voting for Biden to trump. Not one person and the 10 friends I have who voted for trump in 2016 all said that was a big mistake. The role of the media is to BREED doubt and suspicion in same way the Russian bots did in 2016. Preventing a tidal wave is what the media is going to try to do

I would focus my attention on what you can do to help get democrats elected

nancy1942

(635 posts)
11. I totally agree.
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:06 PM
Aug 2020

As much as he scares me, it's nothing compared to how much I detest and fear the brainless loons that are still supporting this monster.
I know we will never return to "normal" after the havoc this creature has created; and I am scared it will only get worse.
I can't wrap my head around the fact that there are so many who remain devoted to an obvious lunatic.

SWBTATTReg

(22,121 posts)
12. No, I refuse to be a worrywart and worry constantly about rump this, rump that. I know w/ 100%
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:14 PM
Aug 2020

certainty that Biden will win. Period. No uncertainty,.


No doom and gloom as you seem to espouse and advocate. I will NOT follow you down this path of dismay and hysteria.


My sunshine is just around the corner in Nov. 2020 and will finally be out in its full glory Jan. 2021.

artemisia1

(756 posts)
24. Lighting a fire under the complacent is not "gloom and doom", it is a necessary correction
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 02:46 PM
Aug 2020

Lighting a fire under the complacent is not "gloom and doom", it is a necessary correction to overconfidence.

How do you take a warning that this election could still be lost if we're not careful as taking people "down the path of dismay and hysteria"? A little judgment and perspective and less hyperbole okay?

SWBTATTReg

(22,121 posts)
26. BS. Getting tired of people who claim that we're "overconfident" etc., for what seems to be a ...
Sat Aug 8, 2020, 11:00 AM
Aug 2020

weekly posting on DU, claims that we are all overconfident, based upon on vague evidence of which none is provided other than a 'feeling' or they're 'paranoid' because they feel like what's happened in the past will happen again.

We have had two election cycles already where voter turnout blew predictions out of the water. The 2018 midterms where we gained control of the House of Representatives and recent elections held this year...here's what an election worker claimed in Michigan (where the republicans forced voters to vote in person instead of postponing elections):

Michigan voters blew the election “out of the water.” “Voters really showed up. They voted by mail and in person, and it demonstrated again that even in the midst of a pandemic, you could have a record turnout,” Benson said. “People want to vote, and it’s our job to make sure they can.”

And these are two examples of actual evidence of high voter turnouts that blow any claims of voter overconfidence clearly out of the water. And, IMHO, voters are damn eager to vote especially in the upcoming November 2020 elections. Wild horses couldn't keep millions and millions of voters from the polls, to express their extreme displeasure and hate w/ the current occupant in the WH for the first time in person.

The anger, hatred, and disgust at what rump has turned out to be in reality is there and voters are showing this. They definitely are GOTV and you can further see this by the decoupling of Senate and/or House republican candidates from all things rump (for the most part). As rump said, "I don't understand why voters hate him."

Shermann

(7,413 posts)
13. It's time for General Grant's famous quote again
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:36 PM
Aug 2020

“Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.”

Lulu KC

(2,565 posts)
15. Exactly what THEY want
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:39 PM
Aug 2020

We should not be complacent or naive. But feeding worry to those who already know what could happen is not helping. He and the other he are loving it.

 

greenjar_01

(6,477 posts)
16. Biden's "base" is everyone who is fanatically anti-Trump
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:42 PM
Aug 2020

That's a massive share of the electorate and it's what makes ordinary election year analysis difficult. Any incumbent and base effect Trump has is offset by the deep and widespread hatred of Trump that's unlike any other anti-incumbent sentiment in recent memory.

samnsara

(17,622 posts)
17. im much more confident about this election than I was the last one in 2016...
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 01:16 PM
Aug 2020

...yes trump* could steal it with some really dirty illegal tricks and it may go to the Supreme Court but if theres no clear Prez by a certain date.. then its President Pelosi...

Sugarcoated

(7,724 posts)
18. No, we shouldn't be nervous
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 01:20 PM
Aug 2020

We should keep our feet on the gas, work hard, keep the pressure on, defend Biden on social media platforms, get people registered to vote and get voting info out there and we must be CONFIDENT not nervous. We never do well when we're afraid of our own shadow. Look at any sports champion...it's a mental game and the Cons know how to play that game. A big component of winning is projecting that you're a winner...not over confidence, leave that to the Con Cult. They are certainly the overconfident side this time.

Runningdawg

(4,516 posts)
19. I AM nervous AND I have my foot on the gas.
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 01:40 PM
Aug 2020

From what Tulsa witnessed between the Juneteenth celebrations and the Trump rally, I expect his goons to be hidden among us, vandalizing homes and cars with Trump signs or bumper stickers under the guise of BLM or ANTIFA, weeks before the election. 24-36 hours before the polls open I expect our boot-licking governor to close numerous polling places in minority areas and call out the NG, "to keep the peace".
I will be voting early, in person (don't trust OK mail carriers) at the election board. I will be driving others to that location for early voting and then to the polls on election day. But by the time polls close, I will be home, prepared and expecting the worst nationwide civil unrest in my lifetime.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
20. It was always going to be a close election either way
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 02:00 PM
Aug 2020

Those midwestern states are now on the wrong side of the partisan index. That throws everything out of balance. A 7 point national lead looks good until you realize the break even point from an electoral college standpoint is 3-4, and not 0.

Basically there are many states in the ideological danger zone of 33-37% conservatives and we have to win all of them, except perhaps Florida. The aggressive states Biden is pursuing are very unlikely because their history is 39-44% conservatives. Democrats have not won a state with above 37% conservatives as far back as my records go.

Many posts and threads here recently did a huge misleading disservice by insisting Biden would receive 60-62% of the vote.

We are relying too much on vote-against and not vote-for. That limits the upside. You aren't going to persuade the fringe or reluctant voter. Nobody is going to rally around, "Come hate with me." If they don't hate Trump already it's not going to happen.

Sugarcoated

(7,724 posts)
25. But isn't Trump's shit show unprecedented?
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 02:54 PM
Aug 2020

Do you think it throws a curve into the statistics you're citing?

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
27. Being nervous is actually good as far as I am concerned.
Sat Aug 8, 2020, 11:03 AM
Aug 2020

Many people were so convinced Trump could never get elected. So some people went and voted for their dog, because Trump could never get elected, and they weren't too trilled with Clinton, but she was going to get elected anyway, right. And here we are.

 

SiliconValley_Dem

(1,656 posts)
31. i refuse to worry about it
Sat Aug 8, 2020, 01:36 PM
Aug 2020

we can raise out voices and donate money and finally we cn cast our ballots. But if people who are powerful don't want to fight for a clean and fair election, no amount of my worry will do a damn thing.

people with vested interests are always trying to whip up the masses with fear and loathing.

I knew Trump was wrong for America and donated and voted for Hillary Clinton.

Same thing this time.

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