JPMorgan Says Investors Should Prepare for Rising Odds of Trump Win

Whether this analysis has validity or not remains to be seen, however Biden has called out Trump for "rooting for violent protests", referring to an interview when Kellyanne Conway said that "the more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence", the better for us.

These comments from the JP Morgan analyst are being pushed on Bloomberg news tonight, and I suspect we will be hearing this tomorrow on the cable news networks, and with trump's visit to Wisconsin, he well be pushing that he is the "law and order" candidate, while Biden, with ample justification, will be pushing that trump is actively inciting violence, and not trying to calm the situation, and work toward racial justice.

Here is an excerpt from the Bloomberg article:

"Based on past research, there could be a shift of five to 10 points in polls from Democrats to Republicans if the perception of protests turns from peaceful to violent, he said. People giving inaccurate answers could artificially skew polls in favor of Biden by 5%-6%, he added.

“Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Kolanovic wrote Monday. “Implications could be significant for the performance of factors, sectors, COVID-19 winners/losers, as well as ESG.”

...........

Biden’s narrowing advantage in polls evokes memories of the 2016 election, when such tallies seemed to favor Hillary Clinton strongly. While Clinton won the popular vote by several million, the Electoral College, a state-by-state count that determines the election outcome, ended decisively in Trump’s favor.

Kolanovic, who has been accurate on calls including the stock rally after Trump’s election and the rebound from Covid-19-fueled lows earlier this year, said important drivers of the election in coming weeks include developments on the Covid-19 pandemic, which looks like it might subside as the vote nears.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/jpmorgan-says-prepare-for-rising-chance-trump-wins-second-term?srnd=markets-vp

The Bloomberg news' hosts qualified this by saying that anything can happen between now and the election, not only with the protests, but also with the pandemic.

They also noted that Biden has come out today to counter trump's version of the, and laying the problems we are facing at trump's feet.

Some of this analysis from this JPM strategist he basis on the betting markets out there, and I don't hold much credibility in a group of gamblers betting which way the election will go.

I do believe the debates will be critical, and that the Biden/Harris camp and their surrogates have to aggressively get out everyday and campaign in various states, especially the critical battleground states. Wisconsin and Minnesota will be critical. Not necessary show stoppers, but very important to win.

A huge getting the vote effort has to take place also, which includes getting people registered to vote, and moving them to vote early, and by mail if possible

I do not look at this in a negative way. It is a call to arms, and getting out there every day and throwing everything we have at this deplorable administration, and the damage they have done to our country.