On 538, so no.

The links you provided do indeed show a slight tightening of the polling - indicating a slightly better "bounce" after the RNC convention than the DNC.

However, 538 also runs a "chance of winning" forecast. One could reasonably argue that it better represents how the candidates are "doing at 538" since the other figures are just reporting polls and this one reflects their judgment of the race as it stands now.

That one, too, can be debated. Trump has indeed lost ground over the last two days (from a 67/32 chance of Biden winning to 70/30 currently). But it was 73/27 just before the RNC convention. So one could still claim that the race is narrowing "at 538".

One thing all these polls have in common is Biden is at or above 50%. I don't recall any polls doing that for Hillary. If Biden can pick off undecideds, which he will, he'll probably win with 52-53% of the popular vote. We're reaching a point that his popular vote total is getting baked in. That should be enough for an Obama type victory. I really don't expect Biden over 53% as no challenger has ever gotten more than that against an incumbent.

It might be a slight convention bump, but imo the chaos with the riots us to his benefit.

DFW (38,940 posts)

22. In 2012, Obama's top election numbers guru told a closed group of us

David Simas said the numbers always tighten around Labor Day. He said don't panic, that he and his team would "tear out their hair so we didn't have to," and then Obama would pull away again so far that Romney never could catch him.

And so it was.





I think the gap will become wider after the debates