Sad, very sad.

She wasn't breaking 40% two weeks ago.

The less they see of Trump, the better McSally does.

Which is very logical, given such a rapidly evolving state. I have mentioned that polling would be all over the place in Arizona.

The hefty double digit margins toward Kelly make little sense given the ideological breakdown of that state

Thanks!
💙

I stumbled upon it while on twitter...like it better than Real Clear Politics

He has been running ahead but under 50 and not up by anything like 7. If this holds he would win by only slightly less than Hagan did in 2008. It couldn't happen to a more fitting guy in terms of Tillis. I would call him a weasel but that would degrade weasels.

Fox News poll A+ rated 8/29- 9/1 has Kelly +17
Current RCP avg gives Kelly 11.5 pt lead

I can't wait to turn NC Blue again!!!

AZ is a light-red McCain type of state, and the recent anti-military and anti-McCain stuff is coming back up. Those voters don't like Trump. Also Kelly doing well in the polls. Biden is exactly the type to flip that state, someone perceived as bipartisan.

NC should have a higher black turnout I think, as they are the moderate southern blacks who were/are strong Biden supporters, especially with Harris on the ticket. Then you have Tillis somehow linked to the DeJoy scandal. Also the popular Dem gov is running for re-election and (iirc) is ahead by double digits.