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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538 - What If Trump Loses And Won't Leave? Worth a read....
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/For months now, President Trump has carefully planted the seed that he might not leave the office of the presidency willingly if he loses.
Whether its tweeting that the election should be delayed as it will be the most inaccurate and fraudulent election in history or that there will be widespread voter fraud because of the expected uptick in mail ballots due to the coronavirus, Trump seems intent on undermining the electoral process.
This, in turn, raises a rather thorny and unprecedented question: What happens if Trump wont go? The answer is bleak. Experts tell me that the president actually has a lot of power at his discretion to contest the election, and some of the scenarios that could bring us to the edge of a crisis are actually very plausible.
Consider this one: Its late on Election Day, and hundreds of thousands of votes in key battleground states still have to be counted due to the increased use of mail and absentee voting because of the pandemic. As a result, media outlets have largely avoided calling the race, but based on the votes that have been counted, Trump leads in enough states to reach at least 270 electoral votes, which would be enough to win the election if his election-night lead holds. Trump claims victory, but because Democrats were much more likely to vote by mail than Republicans, Joe Biden eventually pulls ahead because of the Democratic lean of the remaining votes a phenomenon known as the blue shift.
More at link!
pwb
(11,275 posts)This is not a possibility and does not deserve any attention. We have this thing called The Constitution that has a say in this matter.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)he's been violating emoluments every day in office & the lawsuits on it are moving at a glacial pace.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)I'm OK with any of the options.
Cirque du So-What
(25,940 posts)that would be soda pressing. And so is endless speculation over a string of what if? Scenarios.
Claustrum
(4,845 posts)We could also do a "what if" Biden wins FL and Texas in election night and Trump has no ground to question any result at all.
Cirque du So-What
(25,940 posts)That doesnt contribute to the overall anxiety level at all.
phylny
(8,380 posts)Eid Ma Clack Shaw
(490 posts)would be part of the majority rendering the decision to end their sordid tenure. Those guys are out and out right-wingers who I should think almost all of us here wish werent on the court, but theyre not Trumpian crooks and I suspect theyd be glad to see the back of him so the GOP can get back to dog-whistling rather than bludgeoning.
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)Gorsuch coming to our aid.
Eid Ma Clack Shaw
(490 posts)these people are craven cowards; they know hes a moron, they know hes full of shit but theyll get rid of him in a second if they have adequate cover. Immediately after an election its clear he lost would be the perfect time; they can be all well, Im so sad that he lost, but Im afraid he did and immediately get started on preparing a candidate depraved enough to appeal to the MAGATS but with a veneer of respectability theyll figure could win back the Never Trumpers and independents.
Claustrum
(4,845 posts)A few was called for republicans on election night and later retracted because the mail-in votes skewed heavily to the Democrats. This effect will multiply because of COVID. Luckily, some states are counting mail-in ballots before election day. I wish all of them will do it just for this election because of COVID.
Girard442
(6,075 posts)TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)but at some point the results are known.
At which point he is no longer President, and can be physically removed by inauguration day. Kicking and screaming all the way.
jimfields33
(15,809 posts)Judges are going to be all over the place from both parties. I feel this is going to be awful, but maybe it will be fine and Biden wins election night. Best scenario because the mail in will just add to his win.
exboyfil
(17,863 posts)You are right that is the critical point. That slate of electors could still be contested as well (it has happened in the past).
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Shame on 538 for pushing junk like this - and shame on you for pushing it here. This doomsday scenario, what they mapped out, is so woefully not correct and a terrible mix of junk poli-sci and fearmongering that I refuse to even refute it. But it's also exactly what Trump wants. The media to push a narrative that the election is going to be contested no matter what so that Democrats are dispirited enough to actually not vote, finding the process useless in the long run. You see it with this thread already with one poster conceding that because Trump dismisses the overrated, and often useless Emoluments Clause that he will easily dismiss the transition of power and no one will stop him!
What fucking message do you think that sends to potential voters? It tells them to not even vote because Trump will successfully seize power anyway.
What ridiculous trash.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)That's a good takeaway, I guess. The article's entire premise is to say, using faculty logic, that even Biden wins, he loses! What kind of message do you think that sends to potential voters? No matter if you vote, the Republican legislature in Pennsylvania is just going to certify Trump as the winner of their electoral votes and blah blah blah...
Who wants to even partake in democracy if that's the outcome? This is exactly what Trump wants. Democrats to feel the outcome won't matter because he's going to seize power anyway. Then enough liberals don't vote and he legitimately wins because of it.
The person who wrote this article predicated everything on Florida from 2000 which is ridiculous because the scenario they gave with PA is not the same. Florida wasn't an issue of certifying an election where the counting was incomplete. It was about certifying an election where the recounting was halted. In their scenario, they're basically saying somehow not only will Trump be able to stop the full counting of ballots (not recounting, remember in 2000 with Florida, with all votes counted, the margin was tight enough to force an automatic recount, which began that whole ordeal), in a scenario where maybe, though not definitely, Trump leads with, say, 80% of the ballots counted (despite there being plenty of past experiences where states continued counting their final results well past election day before a winner was even declared)...but they're also saying the PA legislature will circumvent the actual full counting process and certify Trump the winner of their EV based on unofficial results that weren't technically even certified by the SoS of PA due to a level of uncounted outstanding (not even provisional) ballots? That has never happened in this nation's history and the PA legislature isnot stupid enough to support that move, especially if some of those outstanding ballots that aren't counted could theoretically impact their own races?
It's just foolish, needless scare tactics to terrify liberals into not wanting to vote.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Why do you want to scare monger? What do you have to gain from it? I legit want to know.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)1000s more will see it on 538 than here, this is why you should reach out to Nate with your concern.
Wow, really silly post!
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)A poster literally said Trump will not leave and violence is inevitable. That's not freaking out? Whatever, bro. Continue pushing conspiracy theories and doomsday scenarios. It's clear you're hoping for chaos. Good luck with that.
Thekaspervote
(32,771 posts)Disaffected
(4,555 posts)Hysterical blandishments serve no useful purpose.
EndlessWire
(6,536 posts)that we have been telling people for months now to GOTV no matter what. I think that people know what to do, and just need to be reminded every once in awhile.
But, people also need to be alert to what this pRes is doing and probably planning. It's no good if suddenly Trump comes up a winner when nothing justifies that. People don't need to be treated like they're cream puffs that require special handling. They are adults, and they need to know and prepare for the possibility that this man will not leave office willingly.
Who would have thought that the entire GOP would support this monster? But, they are. Party Over Country is their motto. As long as their personal seats are threatened, they will continue to support his efforts to hold onto power.
Nobody wants strife. It is incorrect to protest that people are drama queens and such, when they are looking at what Trump is DOING and what he is SAYING.
And, NO, Trump will not be perp walked out the front door. If he has to be physically removed, they will do it quietly, hiding the fact that they did it. We have more respect for the office of President than to give in to our desire to throw eggs at him. As, we all want to do!
It is a terrible reality that this man and ALL his enablers do not recognize the Constitution and would dearly love to rewrite it in their favor. Each one is probably asking each other, can he really do THAT? If he does, how do I fit in there in support of that? That's all they care about--not who lived and died in support of that document, and all the rules of law that we once lived by.
I would love dearly to see us win by millions and millions of votes to kick him out, a clean and flawless transition, and the Orange Monster retires to Mar a Lago for the rest of his existence. But, at least I have had a chance to prepare my feelings, my thoughts, and what it will mean to my country if he does not concede the loss.
You people who make fun of those that have "currents of anxiety" underlying their fears--well, hell yes we do! Because we have eyes and ears and wonder what he will do. Since he doesn't care about the law, or the Constitution, using it to wipe his ass, as it were, we rightly wonder what he will think up to still claim the Presidency.
HE'S A DICTATOR. Would you be saying these things if that fact were a little more clear? He's a man who is ratcheting up his actions to fit what he feels. HE THINKS IT'S OKAY TO SHOOT DEAD A SUSPECT. This monster said that to the press. That's what he will do in a second term. He will run amok, and you can kiss the country goodbye.
I don't know about you, but I plan to VOTE in November. One vote against Trump et al. All Blue No Matter Who.
When you look back at the last four years, you can see a well executed assault and plan to install a dictator in America. It's not over yet.
What will you say when Trump sends our troops in support of Putin's plan to take over another country? "Well, it's just Belarus? It was just Ukraine?" You want our guys supporting Putin? Dying for Putin?
I'm sick of it...
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Things are looking very good...lots of people are saying they voted for me...weve already uncovered massive cheating by the Dems...hate to tell them, but it looks like a landslide for me.
Best ignore him.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,771 posts)USALiberal
(10,877 posts)kentuck
(111,098 posts)Let him live there.
Make him pay rent. Add it to his tax bill.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Miguelito Loveless
(4,465 posts)because the GOP leadership will back him no matter what he does. They are totally corrupt, totally criminal, and know that jail awaits them if Trump loses.
Violence is inevitable.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Miguelito Loveless
(4,465 posts)is not "freaking out".
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Miguelito Loveless
(4,465 posts)illegal spying on Americans, false arrests, and torture.
Miguelito Loveless
(4,465 posts)I said no such thing. My ballot is on my desk at home at this very moment, and I will hand deliver it to my local BoE.
I do not understand why people desire to believe that Trump will suddenly respect laws he has ignored his entire time in office, and that the GOP will "do the right thing" when they failed to do for the last two decades.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Why hasn't he just appointed a new Supreme Court Justice regardless if there's a vacancy? Why hasn't he just announced he's canceling the election? Why hasn't he had Hillary jailed like he promised?
All these things have to be prevented by...something, right?
If you really think the only way Trump is going to leave is through a violent overthrowing and forced bloody removal, I'd keep that to yourself because that absolutely will discourage people from voting if you're openly telling them their vote won't really matter. Fueling this idea that Trump is some unstoppable force is exactly what he wants liberals and Democrats to think because that creates the narrative this election won't matter anyway and we've got plenty of evidence from past elections that show liberals are great at not voting if they believe it's not going to matter.
Miguelito Loveless
(4,465 posts)Clap harder.
Got it.
themaguffin
(3,826 posts)Cosmocat
(14,565 posts)As others noted, he will declare victory, and as you noted the R party will likely back his play as much as it can.
The closer it is, the more ugly it will get.
Joe is going to have to win by more than a little for it to stick.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Especially the point about the need to win by a lot. The poster is saying no matter what Trump is going to refuse and he will need to be removed violently. Well, shit, that's great imagery to have 50 days before the election.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,771 posts)I think they know what they are talking about!
ooky
(8,923 posts)I expect the coward to flee the country to avoid being arrested for his crimes against the state of New York.
Greybnk48
(10,168 posts)or a fake lead for Trump, due to in-person vote counts coming in first. This term stresses the falseness of the Republican winning result, rather than a suspicious "blue shift" happing after the Republicans have apparently won.
I'm sticking with framing this as a "Red Mirage."
Takket
(21,573 posts)All the more reason it is so important to GOTV and make sure Bidens victory margin is significant enough to not leave the winner up to one state that can be contested.
As the speculative article points out a lot depends on other GOP members ignoring the law to help drumpf.
Any attempts to contest ballots and ballot counts SHOULD be dead on arrival at SCOTUS. we all hated bush v gore but the precedent set there Leaves drumpf with every little wiggle room to contest anything. SCOTUS said only the calendar matters and whatever issues are up in the air at the date the electors appointed are irrelevant. All counts and lawsuits end and the state has to certify electors.
I have little doubt drumpf will try to pull some bullshit, and it will gather lots of attention, but I doubt it will ever survive to the extent of things happening like states electors being thrown out.