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GOPBasher

(7,403 posts)
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:30 PM Sep 2020

Can any of you fine DU people talk me down from the ledge regarding our problem with mail-in votes?

So, I'm losing sleep at night, quite literally actually, thinking about this election. The polls look very good right now, and in a fair election, I'd be feeling pretty confident at the moment. However, the polls that scare the crap out of me are the ones that show that far more Democratic voters than Republican voters are planning to vote by mail, by somewhere between a 2-1 margin and a 5-1 margin nationally. There are a few reasons this scares me.

1) Mild fear: Even in normal elections, mail-in ballots are rejected at a much higher rate than in-person ballots, due to the high standards of verification to prevent fraud (contrary to what the Orange Fascist says). The two biggest reasons they are rejected are late arrivals and either missing signatures or signatures that they don't think match what they have on file. With many more Dems voting by mail than Republicans, this means far more Dem votes will be rejected than Republican votes. This could be a problem in close swing states.

2) Mild fear: Add in the possibility that the rate of rejection might be even higher this year. This is because there will be millions of people voting by mail for the first time, increasing the probability of mistakes. Again, this means many more Dem votes than GOP votes lost because so many more of the former are voting, which can cost us in close swing states.

3) Greatest fear: with the slow-down in the mail service due to Trump and DeJoy's sabotage, many votes may not get there in time. The USPS has warned 40 states that their mail-in deadlines are too close to the election for them to be able to guarantee their timely delivery! (There are also some less alarming warnings in six other states.) This is horrifying to me. I hope I'm wrong about this -- and it seems that I must be, since almost no one else seems to be as scared as I am -- but doesn't this mean that *millions* or perhaps even *tens of millions* of votes might be rejected due to lateness? If that happens, and the ratio of those rejected ballots are, say, 3-1 Dem-to-GOP, am I wrong in thinking there's absolutely no way we win this election? We're ahead, but not enough to overcome that many votes. I feel like that would make some safe blue states into swing states, and swing states into safe GOP, and we're about to see a GOP (faux) landslide. Now there have been some good developments. Some states have extended their deadlines for receiving the mail-in votes, several states have installed voting ballot boxes that allow the voters to return the ballot manually, and I think most or all allow the voters to return the ballots manually to the elections office. Still, will all that be enough? I should also mention, the USPS says that any ballot mailed a week before should arrive in time, but many states allow their voters to receive the ballot within that time-frame; furthermore, that promise came from DeJoy, whom I don't trust at all.

4) Moderate fear: Let's assume that just about all the ballots arrive in time, and only a normal, minimal number are rejected. We still have another problem: the red mirage. In most states, any mail-in ballots are counted after the in-person votes. If results start being reported, it will look like Trump is winning handily on election night. While these early and deceiving indications should be reversed when the mail-in ballots are counted, and Biden should take the lead in more than enough states for 270 EVs, we all know what Trump will do. He'll claim victory election night, contend that a huge number of the mail-in votes are fraudulent, and accuse the Democrats of trying to overturn the election results. That he'd be lying wouldn't make a difference to at least 40% of the country, who would still support him. This would put us in a constitutional crisis.

What do you all think? Do you have any info or news that will help me get some more sleep lately?

[link:https://www.ktvu.com/news/usps-warns-46-states-dc-about-election-mail-delays-that-could-affect-whether-ballots-get-counted|

33 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Can any of you fine DU people talk me down from the ledge regarding our problem with mail-in votes? (Original Post) GOPBasher Sep 2020 OP
the vast majority of states count ahead of time drray23 Sep 2020 #1
This. Sogo Sep 2020 #2
That's great! I was under a different impression. Still, there's the issue of arriving on time. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #3
michigan just passed a measure to do so. drray23 Sep 2020 #4
That's good news. That gives MI an extra day to pre-process. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #6
Thanks for this, I haven't been sleeping either. redstatebluegirl Sep 2020 #5
No problem. I definitely feel better about the counting, at least. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #7
We are going to mask up and deliver ours. redstatebluegirl Sep 2020 #8
That's what I'm doing as well. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #11
my voting priority list of ways to cast your ballot - msongs Sep 2020 #9
That's a good order. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #10
Quick note--not all states allow #2 (Ohio doesn't) Maeve Sep 2020 #17
Good to point that out. Also, early voting is great! I hope all 50 states do it eventually. n/t GOPBasher Sep 2020 #19
What Makes You Think Dems Vote By Mail so Much More? Skraxx Sep 2020 #12
That's not what the polls are saying. Here are a couple. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #14
I Tend To Think It Will Still Hurt Trump Voters Too, So It Won't Be as Effective Skraxx Sep 2020 #16
That's interesting. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #18
I Don't Think It Will Be Equal, There Will Be A Lot More Dem Voters Skraxx Sep 2020 #20
Man, I hope it works that way. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #21
Hey, You Asked To Be Talked Down! I'm Trying Here! Skraxx Sep 2020 #24
Hey, I appreciate the effort! GOPBasher Sep 2020 #27
The Republicans are under no illusion about what they are up against DFW Sep 2020 #13
I agree with all of that, but if the ballots don't arrive in time, GOPBasher Sep 2020 #15
If the ballots arrive late DFW Sep 2020 #32
Yeah, that's true, it's election interference. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #33
We are voting early in person -- we were always allowed to do that in our VA county, Nay Sep 2020 #22
I am wondering if the fires don't marlakay Sep 2020 #23
It's not merely ballots delayed after being filled out Awsi Dooger Sep 2020 #25
Yes, I should've pointed that out. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #31
The most likely plan MoonlitKnight Sep 2020 #26
I'm personally filling out an absentee ballot and and returning directly. GOPBasher Sep 2020 #28
Lots of calling and letter writing to get folks to vote early cally Sep 2020 #29
The ballots are machine counted ( like a bank cash counter ) Le Roi de Pot Sep 2020 #30

drray23

(7,635 posts)
1. the vast majority of states count ahead of time
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:36 PM
Sep 2020

or at least start processing ahead of time. The few that dont are in the process of changing or considering changing it.

see

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214070522

in many states ( like my state of Virginia) ballots are trackable. You can also just drop them off in person at the registrar office or vote there in person well ahead of time.

GOPBasher

(7,403 posts)
3. That's great! I was under a different impression. Still, there's the issue of arriving on time.
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:44 PM
Sep 2020

That makes me feel much better about the counting (though I wish PA, MI, and WI could process beforehand). However, I'm still worried about the ballots making it in time.

GOPBasher

(7,403 posts)
7. No problem. I definitely feel better about the counting, at least.
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:53 PM
Sep 2020

I'm hoping to hear more about the votes making it on time.

redstatebluegirl

(12,265 posts)
8. We are going to mask up and deliver ours.
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:55 PM
Sep 2020

We are going early in the morning hoping there won't be much of a crowd. I honestly do not trust the mail right now.

msongs

(67,428 posts)
9. my voting priority list of ways to cast your ballot -
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:56 PM
Sep 2020

1. drop off completed ballot at approved secured depository before election day
2. drop off completed ballot at local precinct on election day
3. USPS your ballot well in advance of election day, as early as possible
4. vote in person
5. USPS your ballot on short notice

hawaii is so blue it doesnt matter which you choose. your state may vary

Maeve

(42,286 posts)
17. Quick note--not all states allow #2 (Ohio doesn't)
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 03:37 PM
Sep 2020

Absentee ballots must go to the secure drop-off for that county; precincts may not accept them.

Yeah, it's awkward and we're trying to change it, but...at least we have a month of early voting in person (which Hubby and I are choosing this year)

Skraxx

(2,981 posts)
12. What Makes You Think Dems Vote By Mail so Much More?
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 03:04 PM
Sep 2020

Trump is screwing ALL voters equally by screwing with vote by mail. GOP will lose votes too if they fuck with mail in ballots, so in the end, it would probably be a wash with regard to who's votes get ditched, which means Biden wins.

Skraxx

(2,981 posts)
16. I Tend To Think It Will Still Hurt Trump Voters Too, So It Won't Be as Effective
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 03:16 PM
Sep 2020

as they think. Lotsa Trump votes will get rejected and the GOP is worried about that.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/politics/republican-reaction-trump-mail-in-voting/index.html

A lot of rural Repubs vote by mail ONLY. If Trump discourages it, they may not vote at all.

GOPBasher

(7,403 posts)
18. That's interesting.
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 03:40 PM
Sep 2020

I don't want wish for anyone to be disenfranchised, but if some are, I do hope it's close to equal between Dem and GOP voters.

Skraxx

(2,981 posts)
20. I Don't Think It Will Be Equal, There Will Be A Lot More Dem Voters
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 03:48 PM
Sep 2020

So Dems would probably be affected more. I just think in the end it won't be as effective as they think it will be and will hurt GOP voters ENOUGH that Biden will still win.

In some areas it could make the difference though to elect Dems to CONGRESS. Especially in rural areas, where the GOP votes by mail in (because there's no polls close by) and the Dems in the cities, suburbs etc. may actually go the polls or to where it's easier to drop off a ballot.

GOPBasher

(7,403 posts)
21. Man, I hope it works that way.
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 05:25 PM
Sep 2020

I can't imagine we'll have a republic left if Trump gets another term.

DFW

(54,415 posts)
13. The Republicans are under no illusion about what they are up against
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 03:04 PM
Sep 2020

Most of them, however, know that this is Biden's election to lose, and that if he wins and appoints an aggressive Attorney General, the new Justice Department will get busy hunting down crooks who tried to throw ANY part of the election to the Republicans by way of election fraud. That means they risk serious prison terms if prosecuted (big if, but they can't discount the possibility, knowing we will be out for some serious blood this time).

Just as we know there is no guarantee that their efforts to win by fraud will fail, they have no guarantees their efforts will serve them up their victory, and it will be a Pyrrhic victory, at that. Four more years of Trump, and there won't be much of an America left.

Some 20 years ago, a far-out political fantasy novel appeared where Britain (I think it written in the UK) fell into complete political dysfunction, and invited the Soviet Union to come take over the administration of the country. Like I said, the premise was a little whacko. But these days, I have to wonder if there hasn't been a small group of people in Trump's and Putin's circles who remembered the book, and started thinking, hmmmm, how would I profit from THAT kind of scenario??

DFW

(54,415 posts)
32. If the ballots arrive late
Thu Sep 17, 2020, 09:05 AM
Sep 2020

Be it to the voters, or be it to the voting office charged with counting them, it has already been documented beyond any doubt that this will be due to deliberate interference with the Postal Service's normal functions, and that right before a presidential election, and it was ordered by one of the parties involved with the election. I find that indeed to be fraud. Honesty would be an all-out effort to get all ballots cast, and all ballots counted--exactly the opposite of what the current administration is pushing for.

Nay

(12,051 posts)
22. We are voting early in person -- we were always allowed to do that in our VA county,
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 06:21 PM
Sep 2020

but in past years you had to have a reason. This year they have assumed COVID is a reason all by itself, so they are opening 4 voting areas (libraries) and I'll be voting there Oct. 19.

marlakay

(11,480 posts)
23. I am wondering if the fires don't
Wed Sep 16, 2020, 06:31 PM
Sep 2020

Stop in the west how many displaced people there will be who can't vote?

I remember how I felt when I realized I didn't get my address change in on time and couldn't vote for Gore, I was in Cali so he won there but still felt awful. My dad died few months before election and I moved to another town to live with my boyfriend who is now my husband but I forgot until too late to change it. I was also working fulltime then. And not on this site until 2004.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
25. It's not merely ballots delayed after being filled out
Thu Sep 17, 2020, 12:12 AM
Sep 2020

There could be delays in receiving the absentee ballots in the first place. That's what I am hoping not to see, reports that Democrats are expecting mail ballots but they are inexplicably late in arriving.

Fortunately I haven't seen anything like that so far from North Carolina.

GOPBasher

(7,403 posts)
31. Yes, I should've pointed that out.
Thu Sep 17, 2020, 08:10 AM
Sep 2020

The problem is on both ends, receiving the ballot and getting it back in time.

MoonlitKnight

(1,584 posts)
26. The most likely plan
Thu Sep 17, 2020, 12:42 AM
Sep 2020

Is to cause enough people to fear vote by mail that we end up with long lines for in person voting which could depress turnout.

Don’t give in to the fear mongering.

Make a plan. Have a backup plan. And no matter what obstacles they put in your way, vote.

GOPBasher

(7,403 posts)
28. I'm personally filling out an absentee ballot and and returning directly.
Thu Sep 17, 2020, 07:49 AM
Sep 2020

I'm hoping that since these polls were taken, more Dem voters have decided to do this instead of relying on the mail. This is still much safer than in-person voting, with far fewer people around.

cally

(21,594 posts)
29. Lots of calling and letter writing to get folks to vote early
Thu Sep 17, 2020, 07:53 AM
Sep 2020

I've never seen such a great GOTV. Make some calls It's made me feel better






 

Le Roi de Pot

(744 posts)
30. The ballots are machine counted ( like a bank cash counter )
Thu Sep 17, 2020, 07:57 AM
Sep 2020

Should go pretty fast ..we also count votes ahead of time

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