General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWe have a 58% chance of gaining control of the senate
According to 538, I like those odds compared to other years
Where Republicans had the advantage in these forecasts before.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/
FBaggins
(26,757 posts)And I thought that I was more pessimistic than most.
On edit - Ah... but another 15% or so that it's 50/50... which would have the same effect if Biden wins.
Maxheader
(4,374 posts)Look what Obama got done with a completely blue congress...
Doodley
(9,124 posts)Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)I really want every republican running to suffer a soul crushing defeat.
Norbert
(6,041 posts)There are more variables than in the presidential percentages so I guess that may account for it.
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)Seriously though.
I get suspicious when they come up with such exact percentages for something as subjective as peoples opinions (voting habits)
As humans we really have not mastered politics this precisely.
But it's still good odds I suppose.
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)but I'm sure there is a large confidence interval probably around +/- 10 points.
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)It's an old trick. Use an odd number to make it sound like it's very firm and precise.
But when in reality, it has a 20 point spread.
Elections are decided on 2% to 5%. A result with a 20 point variation is worse than next months weather forecast.
Amishman
(5,559 posts)As I see it, we are very likely to win in AZ, CO, ME, and NC. Also likely to lose the AL race.
That puts us at 50 seats, plus with a very likely Biden win, it is control
I don't see Iowa or either Georgia race as likely. Trump will have rural turnout high and there are a lot of conservatives in those states. Soil conditions just a little too unfavorable to grow a Blue spruce.
MI race has tightened up recently, and I am not convinced the pollster's models are well tuned for that state after the 2016 surprise. Still think we are very strong favorites there, but not guaranteed.
Tanuki
(14,920 posts)and Lindsay Graham in a dead heat, e.g. 48 to 48. We just need to convince that 4%, and GOTV like their lives depend upon it.
Thekaspervote
(32,793 posts)Sure hope so...we need the senate for SCOTUS!!