Obama leads by 7 in Iowa

PPP's newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7 points in the state, 51-44. Obama's advantage has increased by 5 points since PPP's last poll of the state in late August when he led just 47-45.

The biggest change in the last month has been significant deterioration in Mitt Romney's image. His favorability has dropped a net 14 points from -1 at 47/48 to -15 at 40/55. His 47% comments last week appear to be hurting him more in Iowa than most places. 42% of voters in the state say they made them less likely to vote for him, compared to only 24% who consider them a positive. Overall 51% of voters consider his comments to have been inappropriate to 42% who thought they were ok.

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Obama's further consolidated his party base over the last month and now leads 91-7 with Democrats, compared to 87-10 in August. We're also seeing a more Democratic likely electorate this time around. That's a function of the fact that 62% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall compared to only 55% of Republicans who say the same. For most of the cycle there's been a perceived pro-Republican enthusiasm gap but now it seems like that's flipped with Democrats saying they're more excited about the election.

In addition to Romney's decline Obama is also becoming at least a little bit stronger in Iowa in his own right. His approval is on narrowly positive ground at 49/48, compared to 45/50 a month ago. Obama has the edge over Romney on both who voters trust more on the economy (49/47) and on foreign policy (50/44)...Obama leads with both women (53-44) and men (49-44) in Iowa. He's up 47-43 with independents. He also leads with every age group. His wide, 2008 like, lead with young voters at 64-29 is notable, as is his 49-47 advantage with seniors.

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