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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBANG: Obama Eclipses 80% in Nate Silver's Presidential Forecast
BANG: Obama Eclipses 80% in Nate Silver's Presidential Forecast
by The Troubadour
An onslaught of positive polls both at the state and national levels have been piling up for Obama. So it was only a matter of time before Nate Silver's presidential forecast approached an all-time high for the President.
That's what happened tonight, as Obama reached an 81.9 percent chance of winning in Silver's November 6 forecast model:
Additionally, Obama reached 97.8 percent in Silver's Now-cast, an all-time high for him. (Now-cast is the chance a given candidate would win if a snap election were held today.)
In all, the numbers continue to rise for Obama, and crumble for Romney, demonstrating the the convention bounce Obama received after the DNC is being solidified by a number of factors.
Most notably, this:
While much work still needs to be done given the effort Republicans will make to steal votes in numerous swing states (ID laws or not), one fact remains clear: Mitt Romney is the worst candidate ever.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/26/1136847/-BANG-Obama-Eclipses-80-in-Nate-Silver-s-Presidential-Forecast
by The Troubadour
An onslaught of positive polls both at the state and national levels have been piling up for Obama. So it was only a matter of time before Nate Silver's presidential forecast approached an all-time high for the President.
That's what happened tonight, as Obama reached an 81.9 percent chance of winning in Silver's November 6 forecast model:
Additionally, Obama reached 97.8 percent in Silver's Now-cast, an all-time high for him. (Now-cast is the chance a given candidate would win if a snap election were held today.)
In all, the numbers continue to rise for Obama, and crumble for Romney, demonstrating the the convention bounce Obama received after the DNC is being solidified by a number of factors.
Most notably, this:
While much work still needs to be done given the effort Republicans will make to steal votes in numerous swing states (ID laws or not), one fact remains clear: Mitt Romney is the worst candidate ever.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/26/1136847/-BANG-Obama-Eclipses-80-in-Nate-Silver-s-Presidential-Forecast
Damn, I love that second graphic.
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BANG: Obama Eclipses 80% in Nate Silver's Presidential Forecast (Original Post)
ProSense
Sep 2012
OP
Richard D
(8,755 posts)1. The "NOW CAST
gives "W"illard a 2.2 percent chance. Obama 97.8!!
corkhead
(6,119 posts)2. Look at the Nowcast on Nate's site where Rmoney is ironically headed toward becoming a 1%er
ProSense
(116,464 posts)4. Thanks. n/t
malaise
(269,067 posts)3. Lovely
Rec
Melissa G
(10,170 posts)5. Delightful!
Thanks!
RainDog
(28,784 posts)6. k&r n/t
Poiuyt
(18,126 posts)7. Intrade has Obama at 74.7%
This is about a point and a half higher than yesterday