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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts) Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:04 PM Oct 2012

Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In C0 -60%-40%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_CO_1006.pdf

Please go to page eleven.

If you "unskew that poll" to the more likely 90% -10% margin the president will enjoy among African Americans in that state the poll results would show the president winning by a percent or two instead of trailing by three.

If I was conducting a survey and discovered such counterintuitive results I would surely check my sample.

6 replies

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Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In C0 -60%-40% (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 OP

This is one if those automated phone surveys, right? Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #1

60-40? tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #2

Obama Is Leading Among African Americans In Almost Every National Poll By About 9-1 DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #3

Doesn't matter Samjm Oct 2012 #4

And Africans are an even smaller percentage. DavidDvorkin Oct 2012 #5

They Comprise 5.9% Of That Poll DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #6

Lone_Star_Dem

(28,158 posts)

1. This is one if those automated phone surveys, right?

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:12 PM

Oct 2012

Not only that but I believe this one only uses land lines.

For reasons like this result is why I don't take them too seriously.

tarheelsunc

(2,117 posts)

2. 60-40?

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:23 PM

Oct 2012

And I thought that crappy Civitas NC poll from August or early September was bad, where they had the PBS Killer getting 30%.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

3. Obama Is Leading Among African Americans In Almost Every National Poll By About 9-1

Reply to tarheelsunc (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:26 PM

Oct 2012

I doubt African American Coloradoans are that different than their fellow African Americans.

Samjm

(320 posts)

4. Doesn't matter

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 04:17 PM

Oct 2012

Even if that is true (which is HIGHLY debatable and downright laughable), it really doesn't change too much at all. African Americans make up only 4.3% of CO population.

(info from here: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/08000.html)

DavidDvorkin

(19,479 posts)

5. And Africans are an even smaller percentage.

Reply to Samjm (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 04:25 PM

Oct 2012

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

6. They Comprise 5.9% Of That Poll

Reply to Samjm (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 05:31 PM

Oct 2012

If you assume African Americans in Colorado more or less vote like any other African American than Obama leads by a point or two in that poll. It's simple math.

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