Spooky

Thanks for the info. I updated with the full link, sans the fancy hyperlinks.

but affiliation and presidential election polling track each other, if there was a 12 point shift in favor of Romney I would expect a corresponding shift in party affiliation.

This is the exact same argument unskewed polls was making last week, and it's just as wrong today.

Of course that doesn't mean it couldn't be a bad sample for some other reason.

then they did in 2004. They were tied in 2004 with Dems in voter ID. Pew has it as +3.

The more likely explanation is that Pew has a poll with a snapshot in time of right after the debate when Romney polled at this best. Their voter screening is weighted with demos and not deliberate but simply what other polls found on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Gallup and Ramussen seemed to have Sunday samples that were even with their previous days and they are trackers as well. Pew had much less people polled Sunday. Gallup and Rasmussen showed that Obama had to have good polling on Sunday to pull even on Rasmussen and get 2 point bump on Gallup.
What matters is what happens in the next few days if the Sunday samples hold for Obama or the rest of the week is as good for Romney as it was on Thursday to Saturday.

Obama to Romney ?

and 55 too close to call.

--Stranger things have happened in better polls than the one sampled by Pew.

"...the exit poll created for the 2004 election was designed to be the most reliable voter survey in history. The six news organizations -- running the ideological gamut from CBS to Fox News -- retained Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International,(22) whose principal, Warren Mitofsky, pioneered the exit poll for CBS in 1967(23) and is widely credited with assuring the credibility of Mexico's elections in 1994.(24) For its nationwide poll, Edison/Mitofsky selected a random subsample of 12,219 voters(25) -- approximately six times larger than those normally used in national polls(26) -- driving the margin of error down to approximately plus or minus one percent.(27)

On the evening of the vote, reporters at each of the major networks were briefed by pollsters at 7:54 p.m. Kerry, they were informed, had an insurmountable lead and would win by a rout: at least 309 electoral votes to Bush's 174, with fifty-five too close to call.(28) In London, Prime Minister Tony Blair went to bed contemplating his relationship with President-elect Kerry.(29)"


http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0601-34.htm

winning by a small margin. They've been pretty accurate. So, I'm watching their averages quite closely.

Do you know how they've been doing?

I'm not so much of a poll fan anymore, but Nate Silver seems to be brilliant.

is that they look at polling trends. .. When I need a pick me up, of late, I read Fivethirtyeight.

I had to google Zogby as I've not kept up with his analysis. It seems the latest poll he conducted was for the Washington Times. Curiously, Zogby has Obama and Romney nearly tied as of 10/8.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/8/round-polls-show-tight-race-obama-romney-debate/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS

You are a good one.

Kurovski.

Don't trust them as far as I can throw them. They are NOT reliable; they shill for repukes.

They're only doing the math, in that case.

Edited to add, their RCP no toss up map, shows 303 EV for Obama and 235 for Romney. Granted many of the numbers are pre-debate polls, but the end result closely matches Nate Silver's now cast of 302.5.

RCP = http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

They were never on our side, but Obama went through worse.

Romney the winner of the debate, and claim he's now ahead in the race as a result.

Ugh.