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Kurovski

(34,655 posts)
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:39 AM Oct 2012

RE Pew Poll: Election 2004, 8:00 PM Exit Polls Revealed Kerry Had 304 Electoral Votes. Bush, 174

and 55 too close to call.

--Stranger things have happened in better polls than the one sampled by Pew.

"...the exit poll created for the 2004 election was designed to be the most reliable voter survey in history. The six news organizations -- running the ideological gamut from CBS to Fox News -- retained Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International,(22) whose principal, Warren Mitofsky, pioneered the exit poll for CBS in 1967(23) and is widely credited with assuring the credibility of Mexico's elections in 1994.(24) For its nationwide poll, Edison/Mitofsky selected a random subsample of 12,219 voters(25) -- approximately six times larger than those normally used in national polls(26) -- driving the margin of error down to approximately plus or minus one percent.(27)

On the evening of the vote, reporters at each of the major networks were briefed by pollsters at 7:54 p.m. Kerry, they were informed, had an insurmountable lead and would win by a rout: at least 309 electoral votes to Bush's 174, with fifty-five too close to call.(28) In London, Prime Minister Tony Blair went to bed contemplating his relationship with President-elect Kerry.(29)"

http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0601-34.htm

43 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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RE Pew Poll: Election 2004, 8:00 PM Exit Polls Revealed Kerry Had 304 Electoral Votes. Bush, 174 (Original Post) Kurovski Oct 2012 OP
K&R. There's that name again Sproul. nt Guy Whitey Corngood Oct 2012 #1
In 2004, it wasn't polls that were wrong. elleng Oct 2012 #2
*Shhhh* Kurovski Oct 2012 #3
Exactly. Which is why I wonder if anyone here thinks they're going to do a goddamn thing about it villager Oct 2012 #27
and Florida's doing it again: elleng Oct 2012 #28
And the next morning, I sent out an email: "The bastards stole another one!" LongTomH Oct 2012 #4
I'm 99+% Sure It Was Flipped colsohlibgal Oct 2012 #5
But, but, but... Kurovski Oct 2012 #6
If you are going to believe all this madokie Oct 2012 #33
Oh, seriously bad flashbacks. TDale313 Oct 2012 #7
The fix was in ? blkmusclmachine Oct 2012 #8
Whatever gets you through the night krawhitham Oct 2012 #9
Oh, I don't mind the polls, I just like to post Kennedy's article. Kurovski Oct 2012 #31
They Will Try to Replicate OH/FL/04 in OH, FL, PA, WI, and Any Other State They Control AndyTiedye Oct 2012 #10
And yet Kerry couldn't concede fast enough. JNelson6563 Oct 2012 #11
I firmly believe he and his family had something to fear....nt PCIntern Oct 2012 #12
It wasn't Kerry's fault that close to half the nation quinnox Oct 2012 #13
I agree with your point JNelson6563 Oct 2012 #17
He was told it wasn't there. Blackwell in Ohio had something to do with it. Kurovski Oct 2012 #19
Obama will call them out, regardless of the consequences to his own career. lindysalsagal Oct 2012 #15
Kerry does not and never did lack intregrity. wisteria Oct 2012 #21
It was the slowest concession in modern times if you count Gore's concession karynnj Oct 2012 #23
And so with n'ary a thought of the little people, JNelson6563 Oct 2012 #24
They NEVER wait until all the votes are counted karynnj Oct 2012 #25
Right, the fix was in marions ghost Oct 2012 #29
Assume what you like. JNelson6563 Oct 2012 #30
He should have stuck in there, he should have fought. Kurovski Oct 2012 #32
Edwards lied about that, if he was going to fight why didn't he ? JI7 Oct 2012 #35
I haven't a clue. Kurovski Oct 2012 #37
he could have spoke out and asked Kerry to do it JI7 Oct 2012 #38
Alright! Alright, I'll tell you... Kurovski Oct 2012 #40
that has nothing to do with this, JI7 Oct 2012 #41
He obviously felt it was more important than his political career. Kurovski Oct 2012 #42
i think it was actually his wife who wanted him to run JI7 Oct 2012 #43
Google Spoonamore and voting machines. There is a 30 minute video of him explaining how Dustlawyer Oct 2012 #14
Those were exit polls. Where people who already voted tell how they voted. LisaL Oct 2012 #16
That was the year that "certain people" decided exit polls were all junk. Kurovski Oct 2012 #20
exactly! remember VNS? Gabi Hayes Oct 2012 #22
That's right. So telling. (nt) Kurovski Oct 2012 #34
I've been wondering why the change in Exit Polls this year... summerschild Oct 2012 #18
and then rover pushed the button. elleng Oct 2012 #26
Yecch, Jesus...I'm nauseous from that. Kurovski Oct 2012 #36
Now that is a great post my friend. Thanks for the reminder. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #39
 

villager

(26,001 posts)
27. Exactly. Which is why I wonder if anyone here thinks they're going to do a goddamn thing about it
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 02:07 PM
Oct 2012

...if it gets stolen again.

LongTomH

(8,636 posts)
4. And the next morning, I sent out an email: "The bastards stole another one!"
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:58 AM
Oct 2012

That's why I may not go to bed until the morning of Nov 7!

colsohlibgal

(5,275 posts)
5. I'm 99+% Sure It Was Flipped
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:15 AM
Oct 2012

The final result was virtually a mirror image of the polling.

At 6:30-7 or thereabouts that election night democrats were jubilant and not in the know republicans despondent. Then presto chango, it magically turned completely around. More than fishy but Kerry, just like Gore, couldn't concede soon enough. It's the election version of battered wife syndrome, our guys fell all over themselves to quit.

Kurovski

(34,655 posts)
6. But, but, but...
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:17 AM
Oct 2012

The Christians all came out to vote against teh gay! That's why! That's WHY!! THAT'S WHY!!!

madokie

(51,076 posts)
33. If you are going to believe all this
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 08:17 PM
Oct 2012

Then let me say that I think that there was a fair amount of blackmail going on with the bush/cheney cabal that might have had something to do with Kerry conceding so quickly

krawhitham

(4,644 posts)
9. Whatever gets you through the night
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:43 AM
Oct 2012

It's alright

Nate Silver calls Pew a "strong polling firm"

I think I go with that

The underlining factor is

The Pew poll was conducted from Thursday through Sunday, although more of the interviews were conducted in the earlier part of that period

Just because you do not link a result does not mean the polling firm is bad, rMoney got a bounce from the debate, but did not last long (O picked up +2 in both Gallup & Rasmussen today) The reason that it did not last long is because in the days after the debate all media outlets besides FOX have called rMoney on the fact he did nothing but lie in the debate

Kurovski

(34,655 posts)
31. Oh, I don't mind the polls, I just like to post Kennedy's article.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 08:12 PM
Oct 2012

I'm hoping that we'll one day have a democracy at least as robust as Venezuela's

AndyTiedye

(23,500 posts)
10. They Will Try to Replicate OH/FL/04 in OH, FL, PA, WI, and Any Other State They Control
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:09 AM
Oct 2012

We may have to contend with this:



in 27 states with 270 electoral votes. Damn right I'm worried about it being stolen again!

 

quinnox

(20,600 posts)
13. It wasn't Kerry's fault that close to half the nation
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:20 AM
Oct 2012

voted for a bozo of the uber-magnitude likes of Bush. That was an epic fail on the part of the United States citizenry. Kerry should have won in a landslide if more people hadn't been so dumb.

Kurovski

(34,655 posts)
19. He was told it wasn't there. Blackwell in Ohio had something to do with it.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:28 PM
Oct 2012

He was perhaps too trusting.

there's this from Bob Woodward:

"Kerry had decided not to concede. There were 250,000 outstanding ballots in Ohio.

So Kerry decides to fight. In fact, he considers going to Ohio to camp out with his voters until there is a recount. This is the last thing the White House needs, especially after Florida 2000.

So what happened?

James Carville gets on the phone with his wife, Mary Matalin, who is at the White House with Bush.

"Carville told her he had some inside news. The Kerry campaign was going to challenge the provisional ballots in Ohio -- perhaps up to 250,000 of them. 'I don't agree with it, Carville said. I'm just telling you that's what they're talking about.'

"Matalin went to Cheney to report...You better tell the President, Cheney told her." ...

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Carville-is-a-Spy-for-Bush-by-M-J-Rosenberg-080828-906.html

lindysalsagal

(20,692 posts)
15. Obama will call them out, regardless of the consequences to his own career.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:25 PM
Oct 2012

Kerry lacked that integrity. Shrub took full advantage of that fact.

 

wisteria

(19,581 posts)
21. Kerry does not and never did lack intregrity.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:52 PM
Oct 2012

He was finally told the numbers weren't there for him to win, and proving fraud and disenfranchisment would be a long drawn out process that would not be in the best interest of the American people. I was distraught and wanted him to continue to fight for a long time, but I know understand that Senator Kerry conceded as he did because it was in the best interest of the American people.

karynnj

(59,503 posts)
23. It was the slowest concession in modern times if you count Gore's concession
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:40 PM
Oct 2012

that he took back. The same team that told Gore to take back his concession, told Kerry the numbers were not there to make a case. He was about 100,000 votes down in Ohio and there were not that many provisional ballots that were not counted yet. It was mathematically impossible.

JNelson6563

(28,151 posts)
24. And so with n'ary a thought of the little people,
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 12:13 PM
Oct 2012

the army of us who left all behind to help him win (even though so many of us thought he was an absolute shitty choice), he conceded.

Couldn't bother to wait till the votes were at least counted, you know, to at least give the appearance of appreciating all that was done...

Nah, fuck that.

Whatever.

Julie

karynnj

(59,503 posts)
25. They NEVER wait until all the votes are counted
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 02:03 PM
Oct 2012

That is usually weeks later as they tally all the provisional, overseas etc. The fact is the Democratic experts realized that there were not enough votes in question to challenge Ohio. It would have destroyed our chances in 2006 and likely 2008 if as a party we challenged with n0o basis. Not to mention, I don't think the party would have backed Kerry in a challenge.

Not to mention - I assume that if you thought he was an "absolutely shitty choice" you were likely not that good an advocate - no matter how much you worked.

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
29. Right, the fix was in
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 03:13 PM
Oct 2012

Kerry would not have been able to turn it around at that point.

It was a stolen election, but very hard to prove. Kerry did the honorable thing and went back to his job. I admire him for it.

But I don't think we should tolerate a stolen election again--too many are tuned into election fraud now. We should not let it stand.

JNelson6563

(28,151 posts)
30. Assume what you like.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 04:13 PM
Oct 2012

My hatred for Bush was fuel enough. I didn't advocate all that much, I did other stuff like raise a boatload of money, run the office, host Elizabeth Edwards, Kerry's sister, Kerry's shipmate and a protest when Bush came to town. Worked more than full time hours throughout the election.

The disgust from the morning after election day is still lingering. I was never a die-hard Kerry fan, like you and BLM. Good to see you still carrying the torch though. Whenever I mention Kerry at least one of you shows up.

But nothing you say will ever change what happened and the lessons taken from it.

I can only hope the loss still stings for him as it does all of us fools who sacrificed so much for him.

Julie

Kurovski

(34,655 posts)
32. He should have stuck in there, he should have fought.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 08:17 PM
Oct 2012

I recall bad boy/goofball Edwards was willing to go the distance.

Doing "what's best for the nation" is a tired excuse at this point. I better not ever hear shit like that again where our votes are concerned. people were behind it.

Meh.

JI7

(89,250 posts)
35. Edwards lied about that, if he was going to fight why didn't he ?
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 08:23 PM
Oct 2012

he didn't follow what Kerry's campaign wanted him to do during the campaign. he went against Kerry then. so why didn't he do what he wanted when it came to this?

Kurovski

(34,655 posts)
37. I haven't a clue.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 09:37 PM
Oct 2012

Maybe he got horny and wandered off.

He claimed he wanted to even after Kerry conceded. Maybe he lied. I don't know that a vice-presidential candidate really coould do much , although I'm pretty sure Cheney would have swung his tired, nasty balls around.

Get like Pubbies, Dems. Really. You're even better at computers, generally speaking. Wink, wink...nudge...know what I mean?

JI7

(89,250 posts)
38. he could have spoke out and asked Kerry to do it
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 09:50 PM
Oct 2012

wouldn'tit be for a good cause. he went against Kerry when it came to using certain campaign messages . if he can go against him for something like that why not something more important like voter fraud ?

JI7

(89,250 posts)
41. that has nothing to do with this,
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 11:31 PM
Oct 2012

other than to show his character issues and what a lying sleaze he is.

Kurovski

(34,655 posts)
42. He obviously felt it was more important than his political career.
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:01 AM
Oct 2012

It must have occurred to him that cheating on an ill and dying wife would destroy it.

Bon soir!

JI7

(89,250 posts)
43. i think it was actually his wife who wanted him to run
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:06 AM
Oct 2012

i don't think he was really into it . he might have felt some resentment towards her for it. when it was found out she had cancer again he was ready to drop out but she was the one who wanted to stay in.

i think she should have been the one to run for political office with/without him from the start.

Dustlawyer

(10,495 posts)
14. Google Spoonamore and voting machines. There is a 30 minute video of him explaining how
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:02 AM
Oct 2012

they used a "king computer" to rig the election. He testified in front of Congress to that effect. He is an old school Repug who feels his party has left him and a computer expert that works to keep our credit cards safe. It will blow your mind!

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
16. Those were exit polls. Where people who already voted tell how they voted.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:27 PM
Oct 2012

And those are normally much more accurate. So there still seems to be no rational explanation for that one.

Kurovski

(34,655 posts)
20. That was the year that "certain people" decided exit polls were all junk.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:42 PM
Oct 2012

We also had the "laugh-till-you-vomit" excuse that Republicans lied to pollsters.

Pubbies are all-too-often enormous a-holes but they had for decades prior answered or refused to be polled.

summerschild

(725 posts)
18. I've been wondering why the change in Exit Polls this year...
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 06:43 PM
Oct 2012

Posted by Newsjock:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014255567

Networks, AP cancel exit polls in 19 states
Source: Washington Post

Breaking from two decades of tradition, this year’s election exit poll is set to include surveys of voters in 31 states, not all 50 as it has for the past five presidential elections, according to multiple people involved in the planning.

The National Election Pool — a joint venture of the major television networks and The Associated Press — has not announced the states that won’t be included, but the decision is sure to cause some pain to election watchers across the country.

Voters in the excluded states will still be interviewed as part of a national exit poll, but state-level estimates of the partisan, age or racial makeups of electorates won’t be available as they have been since 1992. The lack of data may hamper election night analyses in some states, and it will almost certainly limit post-election research for years to come.


Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/04/networks-ap-cancel-exit-polls-in-19-states/

Kurovski

(34,655 posts)
36. Yecch, Jesus...I'm nauseous from that.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 08:24 PM
Oct 2012

"what is was like to declare the wrong winners? Butcher said, “It humiliating. It was awful. It was never our intent.”

At least that person (Ms. Butcher?) wants a paper recount with a wider sampling, but it sounds like all machines are crap. But funny how it works in the Repub favor so often. (over 98%? was it)

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