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xchrom

(108,903 posts)
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 07:36 AM Oct 2012

8 Facts That Prove Our Govt. Is Not Going Broke

http://www.alternet.org/economy/8-facts-prove-our-govt-not-going-broke




1. Isn’t it extremely dangerous to have such a large government debt?

Supposedly, the danger point comes when investors no longer will buy our debt at reasonable interest rates because they fear we won’t pay it back. Are we there yet? Are we getting close?


***SNIP



***SNIP


2. Aren’t we’re in danger of becoming the next Greece?

Greece is in a heap of trouble even though its debt-to-GDP ratio (169.8%) is far below Japan’s (229.8%). With an unemployment rate of over 25 percent, Greece’s economy is shrinking rapidly. The more it shrinks the more it has to borrow to pay back previous loans and to balance its budget. But it can’t borrow unless it cuts its budgets. To cut its budgets, it has to lay off public employees and cut its social safety net, which further increases unemployment and shrinks its economy. Unless you’re in love with retsina, this is not a great time to be living in Greece.


***SNIP

3. Won’t cutting the national debt make the economy grow?

When economic calamity strikes, we humans seem instinctively to hoard our remaining resources. (Once we had belts, we tightened them.) But complex modern economies are not like families. Economies mired in major recessions require spending, not austerity, to function properly. As John Maynard Keynes noted two generations ago, when an economy is in a depression, the worst thing you can do is pay down government debt, precisely because families and businesses already are belt-tightening so much. Instead you need to run up even more debt to make up for the demand we lose when households “tighten their belts.” If major governments move to austerity during hard times, the recession grows deeper.

***SNIP

4. But isn’t it ominous that the rating agencies took away our AAA rating?

Ludicrous, not ominous.

Rating agencies were first established to help investors judge the ability of corporations to repay their debts (corporate bonds). At first the rating agencies were paid by investors who wanted the information. But, a new business model emerged --- agencies were paid by the corporations and banks who were selling bonds in question. No one seemed to care much about the obvious conflict of interest until the recent Wall Street crash. Then we painfully discovered that these “independent” rating agencies made tens of millions of dollars doling out AAA ratings on every piece of toxic trash that investment banks paid them to rate. Then when the crash hit, the rating agencies had to reclassify thousands of mortgage-back bonds from AAA to junk. In short, the rating agencies are best viewed as pet poodles for the too-big-to-fail Wall Street banks and investment houses.
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8 Facts That Prove Our Govt. Is Not Going Broke (Original Post) xchrom Oct 2012 OP
This is why when the president adopts the Repuke frame that we are Doctor_J Oct 2012 #1
+1 xchrom Oct 2012 #2
Now follow that pattern Tom_x Oct 2012 #6
Actually, our government *is* going broke, because the rich are starving it! reformist2 Oct 2012 #3
Um, "We don't have *quite* as much debt as WWII!" is a TERRIBLE argument. Romulox Oct 2012 #4
+1. reformist2 Oct 2012 #5
Totally wrong way to make the argument Tom_x Oct 2012 #9
That's a massive stretch. There's no plan to pay off the current debt. Romulox Oct 2012 #12
Sure there is a plan jeff47 Oct 2012 #14
Wages have been stagnant for over 30 years. We now have the greatest inequality Romulox Oct 2012 #21
Because the New Deal is only about wages jeff47 Oct 2012 #24
Good jobs for regular people was the cornerstone of the New Deal, and what paid for all of that. Romulox Oct 2012 #26
No, the cornerstone of the New Deal is that we should take care of each other. jeff47 Oct 2012 #30
You're not very familiar with the New Deal, obviously (FDR's own words to follow). Romulox Oct 2012 #31
The postwar years were a time of tremendous economic growth. lumberjack_jeff Oct 2012 #13
Unless you predict similar growth in the years ahead, your point is lost on me... nt Romulox Oct 2012 #22
funny, I was just looking at the GDP debt ratio and it is true it has expanded quinnox Oct 2012 #7
Citation Required jeff47 Oct 2012 #15
Wow. That argument is basically the neo-liberal argument--it's OK to be dependent on China--'cause Romulox Oct 2012 #8
No, the neo-liberal argument is austerity now. jeff47 Oct 2012 #16
Nope. That's "classical economics" of the Adam Smith variety. Neo-liberal globalism is Romulox Oct 2012 #20
You'd have a point if all the "neo-liberals" were not demanding immediate austerity. (nt) jeff47 Oct 2012 #23
Um, not understanding what you mean. Paul Krugman, for example, isn't calling for austerity... nt Romulox Oct 2012 #25
And he's not a neo-liberal. And hasn't claimed to be. jeff47 Oct 2012 #29
He maybe not now, but he was in the '90s. His bestseller is in support of Free Trade. Romulox Oct 2012 #32
Free trade, in and of itself, does not make one neoliberal. jeff47 Oct 2012 #34
"Neoliberalism is a label for economic liberalizations, free trade and open markets." Romulox Oct 2012 #35
+1 Alternet is insane kneejerk liberalism. nt wtmusic Oct 2012 #18
I found myself saying.. really? underoath Oct 2012 #28
Mortgage debt levels didn't matter during the housing bubble either... until it did. reformist2 Oct 2012 #10
. n/t porphyrian Oct 2012 #11
It would be nice to see that in parallel with our tax rates Johonny Oct 2012 #17
U.S. Downgrade Seen as Upgrade as U.S. Debt Dissolved xchrom Oct 2012 #19
Another good article. Thanks. hay rick Oct 2012 #27
Recommended. HuckleB Oct 2012 #33
 

Doctor_J

(36,392 posts)
1. This is why when the president adopts the Repuke frame that we are
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:25 AM
Oct 2012

going broke, he's already lost a big chunk of bargaining power.

Tom_x

(41 posts)
6. Now follow that pattern
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:37 AM
Oct 2012

By that pattern i mean the dems moving more and more to the right. If Obama wins it's certainly going to strongly reinforce the the idea that the Dem establishment should only offer up candidates that are moderate conservatives like Obama.

The country can't move in a progressive direction under those conditions. It can only be a little less crazy than the insane cons would like it to be.

It's a lose - lose scenario for liberals.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)
3. Actually, our government *is* going broke, because the rich are starving it!
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:33 AM
Oct 2012

The country as a whole is still fantastically wealthy, to the tune of $50 trillion. And the notion that we as a country can't afford a $1 or even $2 trillion-per-year safety net is ludicrous. But the claim that the ultra-rich are trying - and succeeding - in ripping that net to shreds is not ludicrous.... it is a very, very real danger.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
4. Um, "We don't have *quite* as much debt as WWII!" is a TERRIBLE argument.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:35 AM
Oct 2012

Just awful. I mean horrendous!

Tom_x

(41 posts)
9. Totally wrong way to make the argument
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:44 AM
Oct 2012

The right way is to say look how fast we paid off the enormous debt of WWII (30 trillion inflation adjusted).

That defeats the stupid fear mongering meme that right wingers have be repeating that syas "Your grandkids will be paying off the debt".

Return to the redistributionist policy of "The Great Compression" ( see Krugman ) and we can really start spending bigtime like true Keynesianism requires and like we did in WWII to get the economy moving ( spending trillions to employ millions to build weapons is Keynesian stimulus)

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
12. That's a massive stretch. There's no plan to pay off the current debt.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:44 AM
Oct 2012

Alternet argues that there is no need to pay off the debt--it will just "roll over".

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
14. Sure there is a plan
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:22 AM
Oct 2012

It's called "waiting".

The numbers look awful at the moment because the economy is still really shitty.

Get the economy back to normal and suddenly it's not such a big problem.

Which is exactly why the people who want to reverse the New Deal and Great Society are screaming about debt now - they need to dismantle those programs now while they can make the "too much debt" argument. With a normal economy, our debt would look fine - it would be shrinking. And then they wouldn't be able to destroy the programs they hate.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
21. Wages have been stagnant for over 30 years. We now have the greatest inequality
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:51 AM
Oct 2012

since the Gilded Age.

Which is exactly why the people who want to reverse the New Deal and Great Society...


The "New Deal" has been in tatters for over 30 years!

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
24. Because the New Deal is only about wages
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:03 PM
Oct 2012

There isn't something named "Social Security" in it. Or a big host of other programs. And the Great Society has absolutely nothing in it.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
26. Good jobs for regular people was the cornerstone of the New Deal, and what paid for all of that.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:10 PM
Oct 2012

The idea that Social Security can be healthy while employment suffers, for example, is faulty. The two are 100% linked.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
30. No, the cornerstone of the New Deal is that we should take care of each other.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:26 PM
Oct 2012

"Good jobs" was from the WPA.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
31. You're not very familiar with the New Deal, obviously (FDR's own words to follow).
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:02 PM
Oct 2012
The legislation which has been passed or in the process of enactment can properly be considered as part of a well-grounded plan.

First, we are giving opportunity of employment to one-quarter of a million of the unemployed, especially the young men who have dependents, to go into the forestry and flood prevention work. This is a big task because it means feeding, clothing and caring for nearly twice as many men as we have in the regular army itself. In creating this civilian conservation corps we are killing two birds with one stone. We are clearly enhancing the value of our natural resources and second, we are relieving an appreciable amount of actual distress. This great group of men have entered upon their work on a purely voluntary basis, no military training is involved and we are conserving not only our natural resources but our human resources. One of the great values to this work is the fact that it is direct and requires the intervention of very little machinery.

Second, I have requested the Congress and have secured action upon a proposal to put the great properties owned by our Government at Muscle Shoals to work after long years of wasteful inaction, and with this a broad plan for the improvement of a vast area in the Tennessee Valley. It will add to the comfort and happiness of hundreds of thousands of people and the incident benefits will reach the entire nation.

Next, the Congress is about to pass legislation that will greatly ease the mortgage distress among the farmers and the home owners of the nation, by providing for the easing of the burden of debt now bearing so heavily upon millions of our people.

Our next step in seeking immediate relief is a grant of half a billion dollars to help the states, counties and municipalities in their duty to care for those who need direct and Immediate relief...

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=14636
 

lumberjack_jeff

(33,224 posts)
13. The postwar years were a time of tremendous economic growth.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:20 AM
Oct 2012

The government was able to pay off its wartime debts for that reason.

This economy is stagnant because of government austerity. If public employment had not been cut, things would be better.

 

quinnox

(20,600 posts)
7. funny, I was just looking at the GDP debt ratio and it is true it has expanded
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:37 AM
Oct 2012

pretty dramatically the last few years. We aren't up to the world war 2 high, but it can't be a good thing to rack up the kind of debt we have been doing lately IMHO.

When you think about the high costs of energy, that is going to be a continuing issue, which makes for a bad combination. We badly need a gigantic new oil strike, or something.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
15. Citation Required
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:25 AM
Oct 2012
but it can't be a good thing to rack up the kind of debt we have been doing lately


And if you try to use a household analogy, you're doing it wrong.

Investors are literally paying us to buy our debt. As in, we give you $100 and in 20 years you pay back $98 (Inflation-protected government bonds are selling at about a -1% to -2% interest rate).

The freak-out over the debt is designed to do one thing: Dismantle the New Deal and Great Society programs.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
8. Wow. That argument is basically the neo-liberal argument--it's OK to be dependent on China--'cause
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:40 AM
Oct 2012

they're ALSO dependent on us!

And all the debt we're leaving to our children and grandchildren? I shit you not--according to alternet it just "rolls over"!

That being the case, the author should explain why we shouldn't just borrow a million-gazillion-bajillion dollars each? The debt will never have to be paid, of course! It will just "roll over"!

8. Won’t our kids be forced to shoulder the debt we leave behind?

Yes, this is a real tearjerker. Who among us wants to pawn off our debts onto our kids? A sad thought, if were true. But it’s not. Government debt, unlike our mortgages, is rarely repaid in full. Instead they roll over.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
16. No, the neo-liberal argument is austerity now.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:29 AM
Oct 2012

That way we can dismantle the pesky Great Society and New Deal by making people freak out over China "owning" the US.

China holds a whopping 8% of our outstanding debt.

oooooooooooooooooo. Scary. It's almost TWO digits!!!!

Who do we owe our debt to? Mostly ourselves. US persons, corporations and various government trust funds own the vast majority of our debt.

What do we need to do? Fix the economy. Then the "debt problem" goes away. Fixing the economy requires doing the exact opposite of fixing our "massive debt problem". But that won't achieve the political aims of people claiming there's a massive debt problem.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
20. Nope. That's "classical economics" of the Adam Smith variety. Neo-liberal globalism is
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:47 AM
Oct 2012

what Alternet is spouting:

Neoliberalism is a label for economic liberalizations, free trade and open markets. Neoliberalism supports the privatization of nationalized industries, deregulation, and enhancing the role of the private sector in modern society. It is commonly informed by neoclassical or Austrian economics. The term neoliberal today is often used as a general condemnation of economic liberalization policies and advocates.[1][2] Neoliberalism shares many concepts with mainstream schools of economic thought.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
25. Um, not understanding what you mean. Paul Krugman, for example, isn't calling for austerity... nt
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:05 PM
Oct 2012

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
29. And he's not a neo-liberal. And hasn't claimed to be.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:24 PM
Oct 2012

However, it is very interesting just how fast you ran away from China-as-boogeyman.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
32. He maybe not now, but he was in the '90s. His bestseller is in support of Free Trade.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:05 PM
Oct 2012
http://www.amazon.com/Pop-Internationalism-Paul-Krugman/dp/0262611333

However, it is very interesting just how fast you ran away from China-as-boogeyman.


I have no obligation to either support or refute points only YOU have made. You aren't doing too well with regard to your understanding of the New Deal OR Paul Krugman's political positioning over the years, that's for sure.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
34. Free trade, in and of itself, does not make one neoliberal.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 12:05 AM
Oct 2012

Neo-liberals aren't Keynesians. Krugman has ALWAYS been a Keynesian.

I have no obligation to either support or refute points only YOU have made.

I'm sorry, but if you go look up there, YOU brought up China. You know, when you put it in the title of one of your first responses to the OP.

So no, it's not only ME who talked about China. You used it to try and argue we're in debt crisis. And then proceeded to wander into your own personal definitions of economics based on certain shibboleths while ignoring others.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
35. "Neoliberalism is a label for economic liberalizations, free trade and open markets."
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 09:42 AM
Oct 2012

"Neoliberalism" isn't opposed to Keynesianism in any way. In fact, Obama's bank bailouts could very well be characterized as a neoliberal attempt at stabilizing the banking sector in an attempt to stave off any TRUE regulation.

Neoliberalism is a label for economic liberalizations, free trade and open markets. Neoliberalism supports the privatization of nationalized industries, deregulation, and enhancing the role of the private sector in modern society. It is commonly informed by neoclassical or Austrian economics. The term neoliberal today is often used as a general condemnation of economic liberalization policies and advocates.[1][2] Neoliberalism shares many concepts with mainstream schools of economic thought.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism

xchrom

(108,903 posts)
19. U.S. Downgrade Seen as Upgrade as U.S. Debt Dissolved
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:43 AM
Oct 2012
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-09/u-s-downgrade-seen-as-upgrade-as-u-s-debt-dissolved.html

U.S. debt has shrunk to a six-year low relative to the size of the economy as homeowners, cities and companies cut borrowing, undermining rating companies’ downgrading of the nation’s credit rating.

Total indebtedness including that of federal and state governments and consumers has fallen to 3.29 times gross domestic product, the least since 2006, from a peak of 3.59 four years ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Private- sector borrowing is down by $4 trillion to $40.2 trillion.

Reduced borrowing means there is less competition for the U.S. Treasury Department as it sells debt to fund spending programs to help the nation recover from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Credit-rating firms are discounting the improvement even as debt, equity and currency markets suggest the U.S. is more creditworthy than before Standard & Poor’s stripped the nation of its AAA grade in 2011.

“Most people don’t pay much attention to ratings when it comes to Treasuries, as they are still considered to be risk- free assets,” Donald Ellenberger, who oversees about $10 billion as co-head of government and mortgage-backed securities at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh, said Oct. 5 in a telephone interview. “Until that perception changes Treasuries will continue to be” in demand, he said.

hay rick

(7,621 posts)
27. Another good article. Thanks.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:04 PM
Oct 2012

Last edited Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:22 PM - Edit history (1)

Some more highlights from the Bloomberg article:

On declining debt issuance:

"Net U.S. taxable debt issuance, which includes corporate, mortgage and Treasury securities, is forecast to fall to $821 billion in 2012, the least since 2000 and less than half the record $2.28 trillion in 2007, according to Ira Jersey, an interest-rate strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York. The firm is one of 21 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed and is obligated to bid at Treasury auctions."

Companies sitting on record amounts of cash and looking at a slow-growing economy aren't going to borrow much, which leaves a whole lot of cash staring at treasuries...

Screaming all the way to the bank- Bill Gross invests in a "serial offender."

Sixty-seven percent of 1,031 global investors in a Bloomberg Global Poll in September 2011 said S&’s move was justified. Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said last week the U.S. will no longer be the first destination of global capital in search of safe returns unless fiscal spending and debt growth slows.

“The U.S., in fact, is a serial offender, an addict whose habit extends beyond weed or cocaine and who frequently pleasures itself with budgetary crystal meth,” Gross, who manages the $277.7 billion Total Return Fund (PTTRX), wrote in his monthly investment outlook posted Oct. 2 on Newport Beach, California-based Pimco’s website.

Gross eliminated government-related debt from the Total Return Fund in February 2011 and said in March of that year that Treasuries needed to be “exorcised” from portfolios. The fund lost against 70 percent of its peers that year, prompting Gross to capitulate and buy U.S. government debt. The company’s flagship fund has beaten 97 percent of its peers this year, Bloomberg data show.


Emphasis added, LOL.

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